How will Kevin McCarthy being ousted as US House speaker affect US aid to Ukraine?
Shortly before hard-right Republicans made history by ousting Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Ukraine’s western allies, including the UK, the European Union and Nato, received a phone call from President Joe Biden. Congress may be frozen but support for Ukraine is “ongoing”, Mr Biden told those on the line. It was intended as a message of reassurance but, devoid of any detail, it spoke to an impending issue largely outside of the president’s control. Hardline Republicans in the US, the powerhoue of the West, are threatening to demonstratively derail US aid to Ukraine for the first time since last February. Mr McCarthy was removed as head of the lower chamber of the United States Congress, on Tuesday evening following a dispute over how best to allocate government funds for the next fiscal year. The campaign was spearheaded by a group of eight Republicans – a number of them supporters of Donald Trump – angry the domestic issue of securing the border was not being prioritised over supporting Ukraine. The move has plunged the House into chaos and frozen its ability to allocate money completely, including to Ukraine. Until a new speaker is elected and a new financing agreement is approved for next year – a temporary funding bill takes them to 17 November – those reliant on these funds are living on borrowed time. The US is currently operating a policy of taking equipment from its military stocks and sending them straight to Ukraine under the agreed “President Drawdown Authority”. This circumvents the need to buy new equipment from defence companies, which would inevitably delay military aid to a nation that needs it immediately. Congress last year raised the ceiling on the amount the president can take from these military stockpiles from $100 million (£82.4 million) to $14.5 billion (£11.9 billion) to ensure continued support for Ukraine. The Pentagon subsequently sought to get the most out of its funds. But when the fiscal year ended on 1 October without an agreement in the House over how to finance next year, that drawdown authority went back to $100m. Given the burn rate per month for Ukraine of military aid, including artillery and heavier equipment lost in battle, is about $2.5bn, the lowered ceiling of $100m is “basically nothing”, according to Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Asia programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. US aid to Ukraine has nearly three months worth of funds (up to $6 billion) to keep feeding its military needs but after that, without a resolution in the House, the stockpiles will run dry. The ousting of Mr McCarthy has made hopes of a resolution evermore difficult. Without a speaker, no decisions can be made. “There is no way to sugarcoat how bad it would be if US security assistance [to Ukraine] stops,” Mr Bergmann said. “A lot of Ukrainians will die and their ability to fight on will be severely compromised.” Russian strikes on critical infrastructure across Ukraine has already begun ramping up, making Kyiv’s need for more air defence systems to protect its civilians more acute. If US funding slows or stops this task beomes far more difficult. Along the frontline, a winter Ukrainian offensive, or the continuation of the current summer counteroffensive, will become exponentially harder the more foreign military aid dwindles. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have become used to attritional warfare, which involves bombing enemy positions before advancing in small groups, retaking small chunks of territory in the process. This requires a continual supply of artillery and shells. Without this, not only are advances more difficult but the threat of a Russian counterattack is heightened. There is also the geopolitical implication of reduced support: it would prove correct the Russian belief that their deep military and personnel resources can outlast Western resolve. “Such a lapse in support will make [Russian President Vladimir] Putin believe that he can wait us out,” US national security council spokesman, John Kirby, said on Tuesday, describing this issue as “just as critical” as the impact on the frontline. European aid will go some way to slowing a potential dilution of US support but they have their own long-term problems regarding arming Ukraine. “The continent collectively has underinvested in defence,” Mr Bergmann said. “There is not as much in the warehouses; there is less ammunition and less mortar rounds.” The House of Representatives, ruled by a razor-thin Republican majority, will now have to vote for a new speaker. Representative Steve Scalise, the number two House Republican, has long been favoured to take over as speaker and enjoys wide support from across his party, but he is currently undergoing chemotherapy for blood cancer. The House, then, must elect a new speaker from a pool of options that are either in the middle of treatment or will struggle to earn enough support to secure any form of sustainable leadership in the House. While they debate and jostle, Ukraine will get closer to losing its most significant military supporter. Read More Kevin McCarthy ousted as US House speaker by Trump supporters – everything you need to know White House says ‘time not our friend’ on Ukraine funding as all eyes on next House speaker Ukraine-Russia war – live: Kyiv launches 31 drones on Putin’s territory as offensive gains momentum
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Former Russian state TV journalist gets 8 1/2-year sentence in absentia for Ukraine war criticism
A court in Moscow on Wednesday handed a former state TV journalist a 8 1/2-year prison term in absentia for protesting Russia's war in Ukraine, the latest in a months-long crackdown against dissent that has intensified since Moscow's invasion 20 months ago. Marina Ovsyannikova was charged with spreading false information about the Russian army, a criminal offense under a law adopted shortly after the Kremlin sent troops to Ukraine. She held a picket in the Russian capital in July 2022, and held a poster that said “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is a killer. His soldiers are fascists. 352 children have been killed (in Ukraine). How many more children need to die for you to stop?” Ovsyannikova, who until March 2022 worked at for Russia's state-run Channel One, was detained and placed under house arrest, but managed to escape to France with her daughter. Russian authorities put her on a wanted list and prosecuted and tried her in absentia. In March, 2022 Ovsyannikova made international headlines after appearing behind the anchor of an evening Channel One news broadcast with a poster that said “Stop the war, don’t believe the propaganda, they are lying to you here.” She quit her job at the channel, was charged with disparaging the Russian military and fined 30,000 rubles ($270 at the time). Thousands of Russians have been fined and hundreds have faced criminal charges over publicly speaking out or protesting against the war in the last 20 months. The Kremlin has used legislation outlawing criticism of what it insists on calling a “special military operation” to target opposition figures, human rights activists and independent media. Top Kremlin critics have been handed lengthy prison terms, rights groups have been forced to shut down, independent news sites were blocked and independent journalists have left the country, fearing prosecution. Read More Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide
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At least five foreign nationals among 21 killed in ‘apocalyptic’ Venice bus crash – latest
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Ukraine targets Crimea coast with Neptune missiles and fires 31 drones at border regions
Ukraine trained its Neptune missiles on Russian targets in the illegally-occupied Crimean peninsula on Tuesday in a fresh attack, according to reports. Russia’s Ministry of Defence said in an update that a Ukrainian Neptune missile was shot down over the northwestern part of the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean peninsula. The attack was carried out around 8.30pm local time. A Ukrainian drone also targeted Russia’s Black Sea port city of Sevastopol. Debris from the drone landed on the roof of an apartment building but there were no injuries, said Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russia-appointed governor of Sevastopol. Russian emergency services were determining how to remove explosive materials from the site, Mr Razvozhayev said. "Specialists from the Sevastopol emergency services are now on site and a decision will be taken on moving explosive materials," he said, adding that all forces and services remain on “full combat alert". The Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, has been a frequent target since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion in February 2022. Crimea has served as a key Russian hub in the war. In a separate attack in the early hours of Wednesday, the ministry said Ukraine hit Russian territories in the border areas with a total of 31 drones. “Air defence systems on duty over the territory of the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk regions intercepted and destroyed 31 Ukrainian aircraft- type unmanned aerial vehicles,” the ministry said on its official Telegram channel. Ukrainian officials have not issued a comment on the reported attacks. It has generally maintained silence on the offensive on Russia and Russian-controlled territories that Moscow blames on Kyiv. However, it has routinely maintained that targeting Russian infrastructure in its region aids the military counteroffensive launched against the full-scale invasion. Last week Russia accused Ukraine’s Western allies of helping plan and conduct a missile strike on the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters on the annexed Crimean Peninsula. “There is no doubt that the attack had been planned in advance using Western intelligence means, Nato satellite assets and reconnaissance planes and was implemented upon the advice of American and British security agencies and in close coordination with them,” Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said at a briefing. Read More Ukraine-Russia war – live: Putin suffers loss of 261 troops in 24 hours as Kyiv offensive gains momentum Ukraine advances on southern front as Zelensky assesses preparations for winter Russia facing ‘functional defeat’ in the Black Sea – but Kyiv allies warn they are running out of ammunition Putin’s ‘punishment battalions’ full of convicts and drunk recruits: ‘They’re just meat’
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Ukraine advances on southern front as Zelensky assesses preparations for winter
Ukrainian forces were advancing in the southern front and inflicted more than 260 losses on the battlefield, a top general said on Tuesday. "In the Tavria sector, there has been an advance by the defence forces," Ukrainian general Oleksander Tarnavskyi said in a Telegram post, using the military’s name for the southern front. He did not provide more details of the territorial feats. This came as president Volodymyr Zelensky visited troops on one of the hottest fronts of the war with Russia and discussed the situation with the leading commanders in the country’s northeast. Mr Zelensky also discussed the winter preparations in Kharkiv as Kyiv expected an escalation of Russia’s strikes on energy infrastructure. General Tarnavskyi is leading the military operations in southern Ukraine – one of the two theatres of the counteroffensive to push back Russia’s invading forces. He said his troops conducted 1,198 assignments in the past 24 hours, with Russian forces sustaining losses of 261 men and a further 10 being taken prisoner. Tavria has seen consistent Russian losses in the past month, with more than a thousand Russian troops killed, injured, and captured alive in just last week, general Tarnavskyi said. The gains on the battlefield were further corroborated by the General Staff of the Ukrainian armed forces who said offensive operations were proceeding in the east and south. It reported Russian airstrikes in southeastern Zaporizhzhia region as Kyiv’s forces aimed to advance on their drive from south to the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in areas of Donetsk region already recaptured by Kyiv and around the long-contested town of Maryinka further west, the latest battlefield report added. “It is extremely important that Kharkiv, despite everything, not only holds on but helps to keep our entire east strong," Mr Zelensky said. Kharkiv, a key target for Russia and Ukraine’s second largest city, has not fallen to Russian control since the invasion began in February last year. Mr Zelensky said he had been near Kharkiv and heard from Oleksandr Syrskyi – the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces – on defence in the area and on offensive actions further south, near Bakhmut. He also met brigades fighting near the northeastern towns of Kupiansk and Lyman, he said. "We met with brigade and battalion commanders to discuss the battlefield situation, pressing issues, and needs," he said. Photos showed him meeting soldiers in a poorly lighted room. Video footage shared by Kyiv showed Mr Zelensky shaking hands with troops, inspecting equipment supplied by Western countries as he sat at a long table with commanders and being briefed by an officer standing in front of a map. According to the military analysts, Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions and gained ground around the village of Verbove on their southward drive. The drive in the east has focused on recovering land around the devastated town of Bakhmut, seized by Russian forces in May after months of heavy fighting. The Institute for the Study of War mentioned the offensive operations in the Melitopol direction and military offensive in the Bakhmut direction. “Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km south of Bakhmut) south of Bakhmut and on the Kopani-Robotyne-Verbove line (11-18km southwest to southeast of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia oblast,” the institute said, hinting at similar encounters recorded by Russia. Read More Ukraine-Russia war – live: Putin suffers loss of 261 troops in 24 hours as Kyiv offensive gains momentum Abandoned by Russian ‘peacekeepers’, Armenia is crying out for our help Russia facing ‘functional defeat’ in the Black Sea – but Kyiv allies warn they are running out of ammunition Putin’s ‘punishment battalions’ full of convicts and drunk recruits: ‘They’re just meat’ Elon Musk’s mockery of Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky ‘unhelpful’
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Ukraine-Russia war – live: Putin suffers loss of 261 troops in 24 hours as Kyiv offensive gains momentum
Ukraine has made gains in the south, one of the country’s top generals has said. General Oleksander Tarnavskyi said in a Telegram post that Ukraine forces had advanced in the Tavria sector. Tarnavskyi, head of the southern group of forces, said his troops had conducted 1,198 assignments in the past 24 hours and that Russian forces had sustained losses of 261 men and a further 10 being taken prisoner. Earlier, a UK defence minister said Russian navy ships have been forced to disperse to ports where they “cannot have an effect on Ukraine” inwhat he described as a “functional defeat” for the Kremlin. James Heappey, speaking at a security event in Warsaw, said the Russian navy had been forced to disperse to ports from which “it cannot have an effect on Ukraine”. He added that, despite the disappointment among Ukraine’s Western allies about the pace of Kyiv’s land offensive, the naval success was “every bit as important” as the land breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast region. Read More Russia facing ‘functional defeat’ in the Black Sea – but Kyiv allies warn they are running out of ammunition Putin’s ‘punishment battalions’ full of convicts and drunk recruits: ‘They’re just meat’ Elon Musk’s mockery of Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky ‘unhelpful’
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