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Ranking the NBA players most likely to earn a supermax extension

2023-09-19 06:55
The new NBA CBA and rising cap ceiling will lead to several record-breaking contracts in the near future. Here are the players to watch.
Ranking the NBA players most likely to earn a supermax extension

The new NBA collective bargaining agreement allows a certain group of NBA players to sign 'supermax' contracts worth 35 percent of a team's salary cap.

The rules are simple. From ESPN cap guru Bobby Marks:

  • "[A player must be] named to the All-NBA first, second, or third team, or was named Defensive Player of the Year, in the immediately preceding season or in two of the immediately preceding three seasons; or
  • The player was NBA MVP during one of the preceding three seasons."

Okay, maybe not that simple.

The player must also have seven years of NBA service under his belt. For example, Jayson Tatum is not currently eligible for a supermax because he has only played six NBA seasons. Next summer, however, Tatum will be eligible since he has met the above criteria.

Also of note, the new CBA will only allow players who have played 65 games in a regular season to win awards. So, health and rest could have a direct impact on a player's financial situation, which wasn't the case before.

Jaylen Brown was the first player to sign a supermax under the new CBA, re-upping with Boston for up to $303.7 million over five years. Marks details several logical candidates for a supermax extensions over the next two years.

Let's focus on the six most deserving possibilities.

Best NBA supermax candidates: 6. Brandon Ingram, Pelicans

Brandon Ingram has never been honored with All-NBA, but he's a good enough player to achieve that milestone if the Pelicans can stay healthy and mount a competitive season. Ingram doesn't normally get the credit he deserves, especially after New Orleans' disastrous 2022-23 campaign and a rocky Team USA stint, but he continues to stuff the stat sheet.

He averaged 24.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists on .484/.390/.882 splits last season. He's efficient at all three levels, weaponizing his length to shoot over defenders in the mid-range or to extend for finishes at the rim. He has become a very good 3-point shooter, he's an underrated creation hub for the Pelicans — especially when Zion's not available — and he can impact the game defensively for obvious reasons.

Ingram's flexible skill set and two-way impact are made to shine for a deep, multi-faceted team like the Pelicans. Zion's health struggles have cast a dark shadow over an otherwise promising group, but Ingram can adjust his approach depending on the personnel around him. He's comfortable on or off the ball, with a clutch shot-making gene that serves as the lifeblood of New Orleans' late-game offense.

As Marks notes for ESPN, the supermax — now worth upwards of $300 million over five years — occupies the same percentage of the cap space as the $20.6 million annually afforded to Chris Bosh with the Miami Heat. A lot of folks will balk at the idea of paying such a large sum of money to the former No. 2 pick, but Ingram has earned a pretty penny and a long-term commitment from the Pels.

Best NBA supermax candidates: 5. Jamal Murray, Nuggets

Jamal Murray will be eligible to tack on the five-year supermax to the last year of his contract next summer if he makes an All-NBA team. With the Denver Nuggets poised for another dominant regular season, and with the nation's full attention of the Mile High City for the first time in ages, that feels like a very realistic possibility.

The only hangup with Murray might be his tendency to save the best for last. Murray was tremendous in the regular season — 20.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists on .454/.398/.833 splits — but those numbers won't get him All-NBA. What would earn him All-NBA is his performance in the playoffs, if only that counted toward award voting. Murray is the perfect No. 2 for Nikola Jokic, a confident shot-maker with a malleable skill set and enough playmaking juice to carry the second unit. It's fair to wonder if Murray's brilliance will get its full shine before the playoffs.

If Murray does earn All-NBA, and thus qualify, the Nuggets would have no reason to hesitate. He has put together two historic postseason runs, going back to his torrential bucket-getting in the Bubble. Murray's greatness has been split down the middle by a tough ACL injury, but he's back and the Nuggets are firmly planted on the national stage. Murray is getting recognized as a consensus top-20 player. He steps up when the lights are brightest and he is the soul of Denver's locker room.

He's an elite on or off-ball shooter, an efficient playmaker (only 2.2 turnovers), and a brave slasher. Murray can bury a pull-up jumper from any angle, he's excellent curling off screens or launching out of two-man actions with Joker, and he's comfortable putting his head down to attack the rim. The list of better postseason performers over the last few years is slim, and Murray generally gets the job done on defense, too.

Best NBA supermax candidates: 4. Bam Adebayo, Heat

Is Bam Adebayo the best defender in the NBA? It's a fair question, and it's why the Miami Heat will sign him to the maximum allowed contract when the time comes. He has not made All-NBA yet, but Adebayo's first Defensive Player of the Year award is only a matter of time. Next season feels like a solid bet.

Adebayo is the perfect modern center on the defensive end. He can handle the physicality of Joel Embiid in the post, or he can chase Trae Young over screens on the perimeter. Adebayo is one of the few true five-position defenders, a switch-everything cheat code around which the entire Heat defensive apparatus revolves.

Despite a cruddy eighth-seed finish, the Heat found themselves in the NBA Finals for the second time in three years this summer. Adebayo generally gets shoved out of the spotlight in favor of Jimmy Butler, whose bravado and shot-making talent is more camera-friendly, but Adebayo is neck-and-neck with Butler in terms of importance to Miami's success. He completely changes the calculus of the opposing offense and he's a talented offensive player in his own right.

Last season was Adebayo's best to date. He averaged 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists on 54.0 percent shooting. He's still rounding out of the rough edges of his scoring profile — the pull-up middies are a work in progress, the 3-point shot isn't there yet, and he doesn't always finish strong in the paint — but he's a nimble face-up scorer with genuine passing equity at the five spot. He's a genuine star and a worthy supermax candidate if he meets the criteria.

Best NBA supermax candidates: 3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander announced his presence on the world stage during Canada's bronze medal finish in the FIBA World Cup. There has been a lot of 2024 MVP buzz around the Thunder youngster and it's hard to push back. OKC is primed to compete with a deep, talented young core and Gilgeous-Alexander influences every area of the game. He's a legitimate superstar, already on the pathway to supermax eligibility after making first-team All-NBA last season.

Health permitting, SGA will probably be in line for another All-NBA nod and a lucrative contract extension when the 2025 offseason rolls around. He is the lifeblood of OKC's rebuild and a tier-one stat sheet stuffer. His numbers last season flew under the radar due to the nature of his market and the Thunder's humble place in the standings, but he averaged 31.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on .510/.345/.905 splits. Completely nutty.

NBA offensive stardom comes down to a player's ability to generate advantages, be it with his passing, as a driver, as a shooter, or ideally, through multiple different avenues. SGA is a master at gaining the advantage over his defender, using a preternatural understanding of angles and pace to shake free for iso buckets. He doesn't possess an elite first step, but Gilgeous-Alexander changes speeds on a dime, using evasive handles and his unique length to squirm through tight spaces and carve out quality looks at the rim.

He is now a genuine three-level scorer, with a pull-up triple defenses have to respect and a paint presence few guards can match. Gilgeous-Alexander has the luxury of sharing playmaking duties with Josh Giddey, but he would rank near the top of the NBA in assists were it not for his Aussie running mate. The cherry on top is his defense. Gilgeous-Alexander can lock up the point of attack with his 6-foot-11 wingspan and he ranked near the top of the league in steals last season (1.6). He's a legitimate All-Defense candidate, on top of the singular offense.

Best NBA supermax candidates: 2. Jayson Tatum, Celtics

The Celtics are going to have a very expensive core duo for the next half-decade. The Jaylen Brown supermax has already come under significant scrutiny after the former No. 3 pick's ghastly performance in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While it's more than fair to debate Brown's supermax credentials, it's unlikely that Tatum's inevitable deal will garner similar pushback. He's the crown jewel of a perennial contender.

It remains to be seen if the Celtics will ever get over the hump, but it is basic operating knowledge that the Celtics will win a bunch of regular season games and finish somewhere near the top of the East every season. Tatum has been to multiple conference finals and even an NBA Finals and he is still 25 years old.

Last season, Tatum averaged 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on .466/.350/.854 splits. He is this generation's great star wing, following the footsteps of Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce. He has his footwork down to a science, complete with an elegant and unguardable pull-up jumper and the late-game killer instinct to appease hooper fanatics. Tatum has made serious strides with his playmaking too, weaponizing his gravity on drives to create for teammates.

At 6-foot-8, Tatum is also a genuinely elite defender. He's on the short list of best wing stoppers in the East, capable of walling off drives with his 210-pound frame or accruing steals (1.1 per game) with his magnetic 6-foot-11 wingspan. He possesses high-level instincts on both ends and a real nose for the ball. His supermax contract is practically signed, sealed, and delivered already.

Best NBA supermax candidates: 1. Luka Doncic, Mavericks

Luka Doncic, with four All-NBA teams on his resume, is virtually guaranteed to be supermax eligible once the 2025 offseason rolls around and he has six years of NBA service under his belt. If future All-NBA teams don't do the trick, it's only a matter of time until Doncic gets his first MVP award. The Mavericks have a lot to figure out on the margins of the roster, but we already know Doncic can carry the regular season load and spearhead a deep postseason run.

Speaking of guards who simply generate advantage after advantage, there isn't a tougher individual cover in all of basketball. Doncic is a master of trickery and finesse, breaking out constant gear shifts and directional changes to keep his defenders off balance. He can bully his way to advantageous scoring position with his strength, or he can tip-toe around stronger defenders with footwork reminiscent of a professional ballet dancer.

Doncic's pull-ups and step-backs are already canonically legendary in the NBA. It's remarkable how much separation he generates despite lacking traditionally elite athleticism. He also happens to be a tier-one playmaker, blessed with instincts beyond the comprehension of most viewers. Doncic can see passes from the most improbable of angles and then execute, with either hand, often with copious flare. He's the perfect blend of entertainment and winning impact. Last season, he averaged 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists on .496/.342/.742 splits.

The defense remains a sizable drawback, but only enough to rank Doncic as the third or fourth-best NBA player instead of first or second. If Dallas' recent draft picks and free agent signings hit, the Mavs will be right back in postseason contention and Doncic's reputation as the league's most gifted perimeter creator will not wane.