Breaking down the five biggest fallers in MLB Playoff probability in the month of August.
The MLB Playoffs begin in under two months now, which means it's time for the postseason pushes around the league.
But for one reason or another, whether that was a poor trade deadline, negative regression, or just simply not playing up to potential, some MLB clubs are starting to push in the wrong direction.
Per the Fangraphs playoff probability odds, let's take a look at five teams that have fallen off of the pace this month and now have their postseason hopes looking to be in serious jeopardy if something doesn't change.
MLB Playoff Probabilities: 5 biggest losers this month
5. The Yankees have dropped their postseason possibility by 14.10% in August
The New York Yankees were eyeing a playoff spot at the trade deadline as they were adding Aaron Judge from the injured list, and he was sure to spark Aaron Boone's team to a huge hot streak. That would likely be paired with a huge trade or two at the trade deadline, but the Yankees front office didn't end up in the same mindset about this, as New York didn't make a noteworthy move before the deadline.
This would be the beginning of a snowball of unfortunate events for the Yankees. Domingo German, who threw a perfect game this season, was reported to leave the team for "inpatient treatment for alcohol abuse" after an alcohol-induced incident in the Yankees clubhouse. New York would also lose their first baseman Anthony Rizzo with concussion-like symptoms that he suffered nearly two months prior to landing on the IL.
Pair these events with a 5-5 start to the month and New York has seen their odds drop below 10%. Aaron Boone doesn't have too much time in order to flip the script and turn their season around. The Yankees season will likely be determined by the upcoming three series with the Braves, Red Sox and Rays.
4. The Guardians have dropped their postseason possibility by 15.50% in August
At the trade deadline, the Cleveland Guardians found themselves in a tough spot. They didn't have a great record and they likely wouldn't compete for the AL Wild Card, but the AL Central was so bad that they found themselves with over a 25% chance to make the playoffs, according to Fangraphs.
Ultimately, Cleveland opted to stay the course of their rebuild, trading away a few expiring contracts and not risking their farm system in any win-now moves. These decisions have had direct impacts on their play and their playoff odds. After having over a 25% chance to make the postseason, after just 10 days, it's dropped to around 12%.
Guardians' fans may not be happy with the decision to plan for the future, as it's left them 3.5 games behind the Twins for the AL Central lead. Despite the disappointment in the fanbase, the front office is trusting the process and it'll likely result in a very competitive Guardians team over the next few seasons, if all goes right.
Despite all the losses in August, Cleveland was able to score a first-round knockout over the White Sox in their only boxing match of the season.
3. The Angels have dropped their postseason possibility by 17.10% in August
The Los Angeles Angels made their intentions known at the trade deadline by being huge buyers before Aug. 1. They were going to try to put a team around Shohei Ohtani to win this year and possibly sway the Japanese superstar into staying in Los Angeles when he becomes a free agent at seasons end.
On July 31, Fangraphs gave the Angels about a 20% chance to make the playoffs, so Los Angeles responded by trading for a few highly sought-after players. They dumped a ton of prospect capital from their farm system in order to acquire Lucas Giolito, CJ Cron and Randal Grichuk. Obviously, this kind of trade deadline would significantly boost their roster and their playoff odds, right?
Well, not particularly.
After acquiring these players, Los Angeles lost seven straight games, including a four-game sweep by the Mariners, to begin August. They were able to take two of three from San Francisco on the backs of Lucas Giolito and Shohei Ohtani, who combined for 12 innings and three earned runs. Sadly, for the Angels, after this start to August, their playoff odds are just 2.40% and they're 6.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. Things don't look good for the Halos.
2. The Reds have dropped their postseason possibility by 25.30% in August
The Cincinnati Reds couldn't have gotten off to a much worse start after the August 1st trade deadline. There were a ton of rumors floating around Cincinnati that the Reds would acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline. They were rumored to be in on Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen among others. Ultimately, Cincinnati didn't acquire starters at the deadline and they have paid the price for it.
To start the month, they allowed 41 runs to the Chicago Cubs, allowing them to climb over the Reds in the standings. They limped home for a three-game set against the Nationals, whom they had swept in a four-game series just a few weeks prior. Washington flipped the script on the Reds and swept them this time. The Marlins would also take two of three from Cincinnati, sending them to 1-8 on the month.
While pitching has seen its issues through the month, the Reds hitters haven't been as spectacular as they were in the first half either. It hasn't helped Cincinnati that two crucial pieces of their lineup, Jonathan India and Jake Fraley, have found themselves on the IL for an extended period. Cincinnati desperately needs those two, as well as Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo back in order to make a playoff push. Fangraphs gives them a 20.90% chance to make the postseason as of today.
1. The Diamondbacks have dropped their postseason possibility by 30.70% in August
The Diamondbacks have had the worst August of any team in the entire MLB. As of today, they are winless in the month, sitting with an 0-8 record. This includes three straight losses to the division rival Giants, a three-game sweep at the hands of the Twins and then a two-game sweep by the rival Dodgers. There really is not a worse way to begin the month, especially if you dive a bit deeper into these games.
Out of these eight losses, four have been decided by one run and three have been decided by two runs. That means the Diamondbacks were a swing away from winning in seven of their eight losses in August. To make matters worse, the Diamondbacks were leading in five of these eight losses, including their 12-1 defeat at the hands of the Twins.
There was a point in time when baseball fans could see a world where Arizona was able to take home the division title in the loaded NL West. Those days are far behind us as they find themselves 11.5 games behind the first-place Dodgers and 2.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot in the NL. Arizona's playoff odds sit at just 17 percent.
