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Why are Wagner mercenaries in Belarus – and would they try to invade Poland?
Why are Wagner mercenaries in Belarus – and would they try to invade Poland?
Thousands of Wagner mercenaries have arrived in Belarus since the group’s failed mutiny against Moscow led by its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin – leading to Nato member Poland reinforcing its eastern border against the “potential threat” they pose. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko welcomed Wagner forces into the country after brokering a deal between the Kremlin and Mr Prigozhin, which stopped the mercenaries’ march on Moscow about 125 miles from the capital. He and Russian president Vladimir Putin have spoken about the mercenaries on a number of occasions, including during two days of talks over the weekend and into Monday, the Kremlin said on Tuesday. The Wagner chief called the mutiny a “march of justice” to oust the top military leaders. The mercenaries faced little resistance and downed at least six military helicopters and a command-post aircraft, killing a number of Russian troops. The revolt posed the most serious threat to President Putin during his 23-year rule, eroding his authority and exposing the cracks in the military, and changing the direction of the Kremlin’s 16-month invasion of Ukraine. Here’s a look at where we are now: How many Wagner fighters are in Belarus, and where are they? Between 3,450 and 3,650 soldiers have travelled to a camp close to Asipovichy, a town about 140 miles (230km) north of the Ukrainian border, according to Belaruski Hajun, an activist group that tracks troop movements within the country. Satellite images show that about 700 vehicles, along with construction equipment, have also arrived in Wagner convoys to Belarus, Belaruski Hajun said. Mr Prigozhin also registered a “real estate management company” in Belarus last week under the name Concord Management and Consulting in Belarus. Documents analysed by independent Belarusian media outlets showed that the company’s registered address was in the same village as the Wagner mercenary camp. Why is Poland so concerned? The bigger issue for Poland is that the Belarusian Defence Ministry has made clear over the last week or so that the mercenaries are providing training for Belarusian soldiers, including at training grounds close to the Polish border. “Wagner fighters who have really been in the heat of combat are passing on valuable information and experience to our servicemen,” the Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a statement. One of the ranges is in Brest, about three miles (5km) from Poland’s eastern border. Warsaw said it was ready for “various scenarios as the situation develops”, having started moving around 1,000 of its own troops towards the border earlier this month. According to claims made in a post by a senior Wagner commander, known by his nom de guerre “Marx”, which was republished by Wagner’s Telegram channel, up to 10,000 fighters “have gone, or will go” to Belarus – although the accuracy of that statement is difficult to verify. Poland’s Defence Ministry said the country’s borders were secure. In response to Warsaw reinforcing its border, the Kremlin tried to paint it as an “aggressive” move – despite Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine being the ultimate genesis of it. The Belarusian interior minister, Ivan Kubrakov, met Wagner commanders at a training centre to draw up a “clear plan of action”, a statement said. “In view of the difficult situation near the republic’s borders, it is especially important to be ready to respond to potential challenges and threats,” Mr Kubrakov said. He was quoted as hailing the mercenaries’ “practical experience” following their months-long experience of combat in eastern Ukraine, notably in bloody battles such as those that have taken place around the eastern city of Bakhmut. Would Wagner troops try to invade Poland? It would be foolish. With Poland being a Nato member, crossing the border could bring Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty into play. It states that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all members. Given Mr Putin’s talk about military action against Belarus being on a par with attacking Russia, Wagner forces heading into Poland is the last thing either Mr Putin or Nato needs. However, that has not stopped the Belarusian leader, Mr Lukashenko, from stirring the pot. In a meeting with the Russian president on Sunday, Mr Lukashenko said that Wagner troops were “stressing [him] out” by calling for “an excursion” into Poland. He said that his government in Minsk was “controlling” the situation by keeping the group in the centre of the country. “They are asking to go west ... to go on a trip to Warsaw ...” Mr Lukashenko told Mr Putin. “But of course, I am keeping them in central Belarus, like we agreed.” It suits both Mr Putin and Mr Lukashenko to have Europe worry about its borders. It allows both men to keep talking tough on the international stage – and play to voters at home. The remarks have largely been dismissed by experts, with the American Institute for the Study of War – which monitors the fighting in Ukraine – saying that Wagner troops there could not threaten Ukraine and Poland. “There is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament,” the think tank said in a statement. The deputy head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Vadym Skibitsky, also said that there was no “direct threat” from Russian mercenaries in Belarus, but that Kyiv would be keeping a close eye on the Wagner fighters. “Our assessment is very simple: today there is no direct threat [from Belarus], but we are ready. We are monitoring everything related to the so-called Wagner missile defence system,” he told journalists, according to the directorate’s Telegram channel. Read More The Body in the Woods | An Independent TV Original Documentary The harrowing discovery at centre of The Independent’s new documentary Extremist attacks wounded Paris. Here's why the city turned to the 2024 Olympics to heal Mali's army and suspected Russia-linked mercenaries committed 'new atrocities,' rights group says Monitoring group says thousands of Wagner mercenaries have arrived in Belarus since failed uprising
2023-07-25 22:19
What is Paige Spiranac's favorite golf position? Influencer offers tips and technique guidance to fans: 'Nothing better than a nice finish'
What is Paige Spiranac's favorite golf position? Influencer offers tips and technique guidance to fans: 'Nothing better than a nice finish'
Paige Spiranac replied to a fan who asked her about her favorite position while golfing
2023-07-25 22:19
Biden to honor Emmett Till and his mother amid debate over how to teach kids about the painful parts of US history
Biden to honor Emmett Till and his mother amid debate over how to teach kids about the painful parts of US history
President Joe Biden plans to name a new national monument Tuesday honoring Emmett Till and his mother amid a national debate over how to teach painful facts about American history in classrooms.
2023-07-25 21:59
Morgan Stanley cuts Israel sovereign credit to
Morgan Stanley cuts Israel sovereign credit to "dislike stance" after judiciary changes
By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) -Morgan Stanley cut Israel sovereign credit to a "dislike stance" on Tuesday after the country's
2023-07-25 21:54
Chelsea transfer news: Michael Olise, Moises Caicedo, Mohammed Kudus, Callum Hudson-Odoi and more
Chelsea transfer news: Michael Olise, Moises Caicedo, Mohammed Kudus, Callum Hudson-Odoi and more
After Chelsea experienced their worst season since the establishment of the Premier League, American owner Todd Boehly has taken significant measures to bring about change at Stamford Bridge. The Blues went through a revolving door of three managers last season, including Thomas Tuchel (now at Bayern Munich), Graham Potter, and interim manager and club legend Frank Lampard. Now, Mauricio Pochettino, who previously led London rivals Tottenham to a Champions League final, will take over the reins and attempt to restore stability to a club that won the Champions League as recently as 2021. This summer, the club has witnessed an astonishing number of departures already, with several key players leaving who played pivotal roles at Stamford Bridge over the past few seasons. Among those having exited are Edouard Mendy, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Mateo Kovacic, Kalidou Koulibaly, N’Golo Kante, Kai Havertz, Mason Mount, and Christian Pulisic. These departures mark the beginning of a new era at Chelsea and may be the transformative change required for the club to regain its place in Europe. Here are the latest transfer rumours regarding the Blues: Michael Olise After a summer of outgoings so far for the west London club, Chelsea now appear to be turning their focus to incomings as they look to assemble a squad that can improve on last season’s miserable campaign. One player reportedly being eyed up is Crystal Palace’s Michael Olise, with RMC Sport suggesting that the Blues have tabled a bid for the French winger. Olise is said to have a £35m release clause in his contract, which runs until 2026, with Chelsea willing to pay above the buyout clause to secure preferable terms of payment for the 21-year-old. Chelsea are not alone in their interest in the playmaker, with Arsenal, Manchester City and PSG also said to be interested in Olise. Elye Wahi Another position Chelsea are keen to strengthen is the striker position. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has departed for Marseille while Romeulu Lukaku appears to not be in Pochettino’s plans. Nicolas Jackson and Christopher Nkunku have already arrived but Chelsea are also keen on French youngster, Elye Wahi. According to Fabrizio Romano, Chelsea have reached advanced negotiations with Montpellier for a deal to bring the 20-year-old to the club. The Frenchman scored 19 goals in 33 games in Ligue 1 last season with Chelsea reportedly keen to loan out the striker this season before bringing him into the first-team picture the following season. Moises Caicedo With Kovacic, Kante and Mount departing, Chelsea will look to bring in some central midfield replacements. One such player that the Blues may target is Brighton’s Moises Caicedo. The Ecuadorian was a key player as Brighton finished sixth but has been the subject of much interest from the league’s biggest club. The Guardian has reported that a £70m bid has been rejected, with the club holding firm on their £100m valuation. It is thought that Brighton would be willing to accept a deal that also involves Levi Colwill returning to the Amex on a permanent basis after his successful loan spell last year, but Chelsea are keen to keep the 21-year-old at Stamford Bridge having rejected a £30m bid from Brighton for the defender earlier in the window. Mohammed Kudus Playing for Ajax, Kudus can play in a more attacking central midfield role as well as out on the right wing and could be the latest player to leave the Dutch club as they continue their cost-cutting measures having failed to qualify for the Champions League. The Ghanaian international could cost up to £40m and has attracted interest from Arsenal, according to The Daily Mail. Despite this, Chelsea are also said to be interested in the player with David Ornstein reporting that Chelsea have made contact with the Dutch side about a move for the 22-year-old. Callum Hudson-Odoi Chelsea’s outgoings are not done for the summer, however, with Callum Hudson-Odoi the latest to be linked with a move away from Stamford Bridge. The 22-year-old had an unsuccessful loan spell at Bayer Leverkusen last season and is reportedly training with the Under-21’s currently. Hudson-Odoi only has one year left on his contract with The Evening Standard reporting that the winger has agreed personal terms with Fulham ahead of a move to the Premier League side. Lazio are another team said to be interested in the winger but the Serie A club are yet to table a formal bid. Conor Gallagher The Chelsea midfielder has featured during the club’s pre-season tour to America but reportedly is being offered out to clubs as the west London outfit continue their clearout after a hugely disappointing season last year. Gallagher has been at Chelsea since he was six but has just two years left on his current deal. Tottenham are said to be interested but they will also face competition from West Ham who have made a move for the Englishman as they look to fill the void left by Declan Rice’s record-breaking move to Arsenal. According to Sky Sports, the Hammers’ initial bid of £40m which has been rejected with Chelsea wanting £50m for their 23-year-old midfielder. Marc Guehi After Wesley Fofana picked up a second long-term knee injury, Chelsea are said to weighing up a move for a centre-back in this window. Thiago Silva, Levi Colwill, Benoit Badiashile and Trevoh Chalobah remain on the books but, according to The Evening Standard, the club is said to be weighing up a move for Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi. The 23-year-old left Chelsea for Crystal Palace for £18 million in 2021 with no buy-back clause inserted into the deal. A fee of around £50m is said to be required to bring the English defender back to west London after a couple of impressive seasons for the Eagles. Read More Arsenal transfer news: Record Declan Rice bid, Jurrien Timber and Granit Xhaka latest Manchester United transfer news: Mason Mount bid accepted, David De Gea and Andre Onana latest Tottenham transfer news: Harry Kane latest after Bayern Munich bids and trio on centre-back list Mason Mount’s sale is one part of Chelsea’s ‘masterplan’, but what comes next? Dybala or Vlahovic: Which Serie A striker should Chelsea sign? Women’s World Cup LIVE: Today’s results and latest news
2023-07-25 21:52
Barbenheimer could be the one-two movie punch that blasts away the superhero smash
Barbenheimer could be the one-two movie punch that blasts away the superhero smash
Not only did the one-two punch of Barbie and Oppenheimer, crowned by America as "Barbenheimer," leave audiences enraptured this past weekend, but the double feature's opening box office performance could have seriously challenged the movie might of superhero blockbusters.
2023-07-25 21:48
Why did police warn IShowSpeed? YouTuber in hot water after calling '112' during livestream: 'Fourth-degree felony'
Why did police warn IShowSpeed? YouTuber in hot water after calling '112' during livestream: 'Fourth-degree felony'
Here's what happened after the sudden arrival of police at the Youtuber's home during a livestream
2023-07-25 21:46
Wagner in Mali: US sanctions top junta officials over alleged ties
Wagner in Mali: US sanctions top junta officials over alleged ties
Wagner fighters overseeing Malian troops are accused of targeting civilians and other rights abuses.
2023-07-25 21:28
Who is Adrian Griffin's son? Milwaukee Bucks coach's 2-year-old grandson declared dead after child's dad found him unresponsive
Who is Adrian Griffin's son? Milwaukee Bucks coach's 2-year-old grandson declared dead after child's dad found him unresponsive
'My grandson Jayce was very special to me and my family and his passing is an agonizing tragedy that will be felt forever,' said Adrian Griffin
2023-07-25 20:59
Springboks try new Williams-Libbok halfback pairing in 9 changes for Argentina
Springboks try new Williams-Libbok halfback pairing in 9 changes for Argentina
South Africa will start a new halfback pairing of Grant Williams and Manie Libbok against Argentina on Saturday in a final home game before its Rugby World Cup title defense
2023-07-25 20:57
Who was Aniah Blanchard? Mother of dead woman speaks out after Carlee Russell confesses she lied about being kidnapped
Who was Aniah Blanchard? Mother of dead woman speaks out after Carlee Russell confesses she lied about being kidnapped
'Of course deep down inside I’m very angry. I do not regret anything at all,' Angela Harris, who had been actively involved in the search for Russell
2023-07-25 20:57
Saquon Barkley, Giants settle on 1-year deal worth up to $11 million, AP source says
Saquon Barkley, Giants settle on 1-year deal worth up to $11 million, AP source says
Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants settled on a contract for the star running back just in time for training camp, signing a one-year contract worth up to $11 million, a source close to the negotiations told The Associated Press on Tuesday
2023-07-25 20:54
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