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In 2020, philosopher Toby Ord published The Precipice, a book on the risk of human extinction. The chances of "existential catastrophe" for humanity in the next century according to Ord? One in six. It was a shocking number that alarmed many. After years of being flooded with warnings over climate change, rogue AI, nuclear weapons and pandemics, it's hard to disagree that humans face worrying chances. In his book, Ord discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can be examined through history. His research involved looking at the number of space rocks that have hit the moon over its history to figure out the likelihood than an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth. This was, in fact, looked at in 2022 by French scientists Jean-Marc Salotti, he calculated the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century to be roughly one in 300 million. By contrast, Ord estimated the risk to be one in a million, although he does point out a considerable degree of uncertainty. Probabilities can be hard to understand in this context. Traditional probability, for example, relies on observations and a collection of repeated events, but human extinction would be a one-off. But there is another way to think if, called Bayesianism, after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It sees probabilities as a ranking system of sorts. Specific number predictions shouldn't be taken so literally, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand the likelihood of each outcome. Ord's book contains a table of potential causes of extinctions, accompanied by his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand). However, even using Bayesianism traditionally requires the incorporation of observational evidence. So, what do we make of Ord's "one in six"? Well it's better to take it less literally but to think of it as a warning, to jump start action on issues such as climate change to hopefully reduce the risk of human extinction in the next century. Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

KSI and Tommy Fury will meet in the boxing ring on Saturday, in what is set to be one of the biggest fights of the year. KSI (real name Olajide Olatunji) rose to fame on YouTube and has since ventured into rapping, boxing and business – the latter via his Prime energy drink company, which he launched with former opponent Logan Paul. The Briton’s next in-ring challenge comes against compatriot Fury, a former Love Island contestant and the half-brother of heavyweight boxing champion Tyson Fury. Neither KSI, 30, nor Fury, 24, has been beaten – though the latter has greater professional experience. In the co-main event, Paul will be in action against fellow American Dillon Danis, a former teammate of UFC star Conor McGregor. Here’s all you need to know. We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent. When is the event? The fights are set to take place on Saturday 14 October at the AO Arena in Manchester. The main card is due to begin at 7pm BST (11am PT, 1pm CT, 2pm ET). Paul vs Danis is likely to take place at around 10.30pm BST (2.30pm PT, 4.30pm CT, 5.30pm ET), with ring walks for KSI vs Fury expected at 11.30pm BST (3.30pm PT, 5.30pm CT, 6.30pm ET). How can I watch it? The event will air live on Dazn pay-per-view, at a cost of £19.99 in the UK and $54.99 in the US. If you’re travelling abroad and want to watch the event, you might need a VPN to unblock your streaming app. Our VPN round-up is here to help and includes deals on VPNs in the market. Viewers using a VPN need to make sure that they comply with any local regulations where they are and also with the terms of their service provider. Odds KSI – 5/2; Fury – 2/7 Paul – 2/9; Danis – 3/1 Full odds via William Hill. • Get all the latest boxing betting sites’ offers Full card (subject to change) • KSI vs Tommy Fury • Logan Paul vs Dillon Danis • Salt Papi vs Slim Albaher • Deen The Great vs Walid Sharks II • King Kenny vs Anthony Taylor • Whindersson Nunes vs My Mate Nate • NichLmao & Alex Wassabi vs Luis Alcaraz Pineda & BDave • Astrid Wett vs Alexia Grace • Swarmz vs Ryan Taylor II • Chase DeMoor vs Tempo Arts S-X vs DTG Read More Who is KSI? From ‘endearing’ class clown to YouTuber who has changed the face of boxing Tommy Fury explains why he has ‘never been fan’ of KSI ahead of crunch boxing match Let’s get ready to rumble! Inside the ropes with boxing’s ring announcers What time does Logan Paul vs Dillon Danis start this weekend? How to watch Logan Paul vs Dillon Danis online and on TV this weekend What time does KSI vs Tommy Fury start this weekend?

Major carriers including Delta and Virgin Atlantic suspend direct flights, while others warn of delays.

ATLANTA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct 9, 2023--

Elliot Sorene, a London-based surgeon, describes how his son escaped the attacks in Israel.

By Johan Ahlander and Simon Johnson STOCKHOLM Harvard economic historian Claudia Goldin won the 2023 Nobel economics prize

Mars is often called the Red Planet, but a recent image captured by NASA’s Perseverance rover from the surface would go some way to contradicting that. Earlier this year, Perseverance snapped a sunset from Mars in which the Sun looks blue, a sight which would never be seen from our own planet. The photograph was taken on the rover’s 842nd day on the planet, and shows a Martian horizon with the sun setting behind causing an eerily cool glow. Because of Mars’ distance from the Sun, it gets less sunlight than we do on Earth. Even at its sunniest, it gets less than half our quota of light from the star. And the planet’s atmosphere, which is weaker than Earth’s, is mainly made up of carbon dioxide, with a small amount of nitrogen and a trace of oxygen. This gaseous mix and weak atmosphere causes the light to scatter in a blue haze across the sky. It’s the same process which gives us our blue sky during the daytime, when the light has less atmosphere to penetrate before it reaches our eyes. On Earth, this changes when the sun dips below the horizon, and the light has more atmosphere to penetrate, filtering our blue and violet wavelengths, leaving only reds and oranges. Meanwhile on Mars, the sunlight interacts with the dust hanging in the atmosphere, scattering red light during the day. At twilight, that red light is filtered away, leaving blues. Atmospheric scientist Mark Lemmon of Texas A&M University told Science Alert: "The colours come from the fact that the very fine dust is the right size so that blue light penetrates the atmosphere slightly more efficiently. “When the blue light scatters off the dust, it stays closer to the direction of the Sun than light of other colours does. “The rest of the sky is yellow to orange, as yellow and red light scatter all over the sky instead of being absorbed or staying close to the Sun.” Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

A number of those identified as dead or missing since Hamas launched attacks on Israel are from overseas.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct 9, 2023--

By Foo Yun Chee BRUSSELS EU antitrust regulators are asking Microsoft's users and rivals whether Bing should comply

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct 9, 2023--

A bride has annoyed people of the internet by charging guests £2,000 to attend her nuptials. Reportedly posting on Mumsnet, one of the guests claimed she had been invited to stay at a villa with the bride’s family and friends and was asked to split the cost for a week regardless of how long she could stay. She wrote: “The thought of spending a week socialising in a villa feels overwhelming, particularly when I don't know anyone and everyone else is in a couple, so I was going to stay only four nights.” So, she asked to share a room with another guest to cut costs but the bride didn't take it well. “She started crying and said she was upset because I have never been enthusiastic about her wedding plans (which is true, when she first asked for my villa deposit, I had asked a few times about other accommodation options),” she explained. After complaining, the bride reportedly refused to talk to her friend and the pair later ended up embroiled in a "heated discussion". The wedding guest was allegedly told: “It's clear the time/cost/venue etc. is asking too much of you and if it had been the other way round, it wouldn't have even crossed her mind to think about these things.” The woman's deposit was returned but she was still unsure about going to the wedding. She wrote: “She has always been quite selfish but I'm really upset by her lack of understanding as to why I don't want to spend a week with strangers and that I really did want to speak about the wedding. But at the same time, I know weddings are stressful and maybe she was trying to be sensitive. “Truth be told I'd rather go to a school friend's wedding on the same weekend who I feel like is a much better friend.” Responding to the situation, one commenter reportedly wrote: "The friendship is already over I'm afraid. I wouldn't go. I'm sorry." Another added: "It sounds like the friendship is going to survive much longer anyway." While a third said: "You shouldn't have to fund someone else's wedding." Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.