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How will Kevin McCarthy being ousted as US House speaker affect US aid to Ukraine?
How will Kevin McCarthy being ousted as US House speaker affect US aid to Ukraine?
Shortly before hard-right Republicans made history by ousting Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Ukraine’s western allies, including the UK, the European Union and Nato, received a phone call from President Joe Biden. Congress may be frozen but support for Ukraine is “ongoing”, Mr Biden told those on the line. It was intended as a message of reassurance but, devoid of any detail, it spoke to an impending issue largely outside of the president’s control. Hardline Republicans in the US, the powerhoue of the West, are threatening to demonstratively derail US aid to Ukraine for the first time since last February. Mr McCarthy was removed as head of the lower chamber of the United States Congress, on Tuesday evening following a dispute over how best to allocate government funds for the next fiscal year. The campaign was spearheaded by a group of eight Republicans – a number of them supporters of Donald Trump – angry the domestic issue of securing the border was not being prioritised over supporting Ukraine. The move has plunged the House into chaos and frozen its ability to allocate money completely, including to Ukraine. Until a new speaker is elected and a new financing agreement is approved for next year – a temporary funding bill takes them to 17 November – those reliant on these funds are living on borrowed time. The US is currently operating a policy of taking equipment from its military stocks and sending them straight to Ukraine under the agreed “President Drawdown Authority”. This circumvents the need to buy new equipment from defence companies, which would inevitably delay military aid to a nation that needs it immediately. Congress last year raised the ceiling on the amount the president can take from these military stockpiles from $100 million (£82.4 million) to $14.5 billion (£11.9 billion) to ensure continued support for Ukraine. The Pentagon subsequently sought to get the most out of its funds. But when the fiscal year ended on 1 October without an agreement in the House over how to finance next year, that drawdown authority went back to $100m. Given the burn rate per month for Ukraine of military aid, including artillery and heavier equipment lost in battle, is about $2.5bn, the lowered ceiling of $100m is “basically nothing”, according to Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Asia programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. US aid to Ukraine has nearly three months worth of funds (up to $6 billion) to keep feeding its military needs but after that, without a resolution in the House, the stockpiles will run dry. The ousting of Mr McCarthy has made hopes of a resolution evermore difficult. Without a speaker, no decisions can be made. “There is no way to sugarcoat how bad it would be if US security assistance [to Ukraine] stops,” Mr Bergmann said. “A lot of Ukrainians will die and their ability to fight on will be severely compromised.” Russian strikes on critical infrastructure across Ukraine has already begun ramping up, making Kyiv’s need for more air defence systems to protect its civilians more acute. If US funding slows or stops this task beomes far more difficult. Along the frontline, a winter Ukrainian offensive, or the continuation of the current summer counteroffensive, will become exponentially harder the more foreign military aid dwindles. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have become used to attritional warfare, which involves bombing enemy positions before advancing in small groups, retaking small chunks of territory in the process. This requires a continual supply of artillery and shells. Without this, not only are advances more difficult but the threat of a Russian counterattack is heightened. There is also the geopolitical implication of reduced support: it would prove correct the Russian belief that their deep military and personnel resources can outlast Western resolve. “Such a lapse in support will make [Russian President Vladimir] Putin believe that he can wait us out,” US national security council spokesman, John Kirby, said on Tuesday, describing this issue as “just as critical” as the impact on the frontline. European aid will go some way to slowing a potential dilution of US support but they have their own long-term problems regarding arming Ukraine. “The continent collectively has underinvested in defence,” Mr Bergmann said. “There is not as much in the warehouses; there is less ammunition and less mortar rounds.” The House of Representatives, ruled by a razor-thin Republican majority, will now have to vote for a new speaker. Representative Steve Scalise, the number two House Republican, has long been favoured to take over as speaker and enjoys wide support from across his party, but he is currently undergoing chemotherapy for blood cancer. The House, then, must elect a new speaker from a pool of options that are either in the middle of treatment or will struggle to earn enough support to secure any form of sustainable leadership in the House. While they debate and jostle, Ukraine will get closer to losing its most significant military supporter. Read More Kevin McCarthy ousted as US House speaker by Trump supporters – everything you need to know White House says ‘time not our friend’ on Ukraine funding as all eyes on next House speaker Ukraine-Russia war – live: Kyiv launches 31 drones on Putin’s territory as offensive gains momentum
2023-10-04 21:19
5 St. Louis Cardinals not named Oli Marmol who won't be back
5 St. Louis Cardinals not named Oli Marmol who won't be back
The 2024 edition of the St. Louis Cardinals promises to be different. Who should fans expect not to see in the Birds on the Bat next year?
2023-10-04 21:18
Travis Kelce says he 'owes' Erin Andrews and Charissa Thompson for urging Taylor Swift to date him
Travis Kelce says he 'owes' Erin Andrews and Charissa Thompson for urging Taylor Swift to date him
Travis Kelce is giving credit where credit is due.
2023-10-04 21:17
Ford's third-quarter US auto sales rise on pickup, crossover SUV demand
Ford's third-quarter US auto sales rise on pickup, crossover SUV demand
Ford Motor on Wednesday posted a near 8% rise in U.S. auto sales for the third-quarter, driven by
2023-10-04 21:15
Arsenal: Mikel Arteta responds to Bukayo Saka picking up injury in Champions League loss
Arsenal: Mikel Arteta responds to Bukayo Saka picking up injury in Champions League loss
Mikel Arteta defended his decision to play Bukayo Saka as the Arsenal winger limped out of their Champions League defeat to Lens. The Gunners had taken the lead through Gabriel Jesus but Adrien Thomasson levelled following a David Raya error before Saka hobbled out of the game. Lens would go on to win 2-1 courtesy of a second-half strike from Elye Wahi but it was the injury to Saka that will have concerned Arteta more. The Arsenal boss described Saka’s injury as a “knock” at full-time, adding the club are now waiting to see the extent of the issue.
2023-10-04 20:59
Chelsea, Man City & Real Madrid monitoring Alphonso Davies
Chelsea, Man City & Real Madrid monitoring Alphonso Davies
Chelsea, Man City and Real Madrid are being kept informed of Alphonso Davies' situation, with Bayern Munich keen to tie him down to a new contract. The Canadian's current deal is up in 2025.
2023-10-04 20:54
The private sector added just 89,000 jobs last month, far below expectations
The private sector added just 89,000 jobs last month, far below expectations
US employers in the private sector added an estimated 89,000 jobs in September, a much lower total than expected and an indication of a sharp pullback in the labor market, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday.
2023-10-04 20:50
How can Man Utd reach the Champions League knockout stages?
How can Man Utd reach the Champions League knockout stages?
Just when you think it can't get worse for Manchester United, it just sort of... does. Erik ten Hag done some excellent work during his debut season to return
2023-10-04 20:47
Prada and Axiom Space collaborate to design NASA's lunar spacesuits
Prada and Axiom Space collaborate to design NASA's lunar spacesuits
MILAN Italian luxury group Prada and Texas-based startup Axiom Space will collaborate to design NASA's lunar spacesuits for
2023-10-04 20:26
Former Russian state TV journalist gets 8 1/2-year sentence in absentia for Ukraine war criticism
Former Russian state TV journalist gets 8 1/2-year sentence in absentia for Ukraine war criticism
A court in Moscow on Wednesday handed a former state TV journalist a 8 1/2-year prison term in absentia for protesting Russia's war in Ukraine, the latest in a months-long crackdown against dissent that has intensified since Moscow's invasion 20 months ago. Marina Ovsyannikova was charged with spreading false information about the Russian army, a criminal offense under a law adopted shortly after the Kremlin sent troops to Ukraine. She held a picket in the Russian capital in July 2022, and held a poster that said “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is a killer. His soldiers are fascists. 352 children have been killed (in Ukraine). How many more children need to die for you to stop?” Ovsyannikova, who until March 2022 worked at for Russia's state-run Channel One, was detained and placed under house arrest, but managed to escape to France with her daughter. Russian authorities put her on a wanted list and prosecuted and tried her in absentia. In March, 2022 Ovsyannikova made international headlines after appearing behind the anchor of an evening Channel One news broadcast with a poster that said “Stop the war, don’t believe the propaganda, they are lying to you here.” She quit her job at the channel, was charged with disparaging the Russian military and fined 30,000 rubles ($270 at the time). Thousands of Russians have been fined and hundreds have faced criminal charges over publicly speaking out or protesting against the war in the last 20 months. The Kremlin has used legislation outlawing criticism of what it insists on calling a “special military operation” to target opposition figures, human rights activists and independent media. Top Kremlin critics have been handed lengthy prison terms, rights groups have been forced to shut down, independent news sites were blocked and independent journalists have left the country, fearing prosecution. Read More Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide
2023-10-04 20:24
Who is playing Thursday Night Football in Week 5?
Who is playing Thursday Night Football in Week 5?
After a so-so start to the Thursday night schedule, this week's matchup could either be really good or another snoozer.
2023-10-04 20:22
Risks of DeSantis' Iowa-first strategy mount as he returns to South Carolina for first time in nearly 3 months
Risks of DeSantis' Iowa-first strategy mount as he returns to South Carolina for first time in nearly 3 months
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will return to South Carolina on Wednesday to reengage with Republican voters who last saw the GOP presidential candidate in mid-July.
2023-10-04 20:21
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