UK government bonds tumbled and traders priced in a more aggressive path of interest-rate hikes by the Bank of England after data showed wages rose faster than expected in April.
The yield on the two-year notes jumped 13 basis points to 4.77% on Tuesday, the highest since the global financial crisis in 2008 and surpassing levels reached during the turmoil that marked Liz Truss’s government. That compares to a low of just above 3% in March.
The UK bond market has been one of the worst-performing across major developed economies this year, with inflation showing no signs of moderating. The picture is further muddied because the BOE is selling bonds from its quantitative-easing era holdings and the government is flooding the market with bonds to fund its budget.
“Demand for gilts won’t return meaningfully until investors are confident that inflation is on a sufficiently downward trajectory and we are at (or at least close to) a peak in the Bank Rate,” said Imogen Bachra, head of UK rates strategy at NatWest Markets. “The more that data surprises to the upside, the further into the future that demand gets pushed.”
Money markets now see the key rate rising to 5.7% by February, which would be the highest in 15 years. That means another 120 basis points of hikes to a tightening cycle that already elevated the key rate by 440 basis points since late 2021.
Read more: UK Bond Yields Rise as Mann Warns on Persistent Inflation
Some investors say the selloff is nearing an end. Mike Riddell, a macro portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, said the move is starting to look overdone, while BlackRock Inc. has been dipping back into gilts, lured by some of the highest yields in the developed world.
“Valuations suggest the gilt market is in distress, but there’s isn’t any tangible distress this time,” said Riddell, when comparing UK debt to its peers. “We’ve been bearish UK government bonds relative to other markets much of the last 18 months.”
(Updates with context and comments throughout.)
