Thailand’s Move Forward Party, which has staked claim to lead a government after emerging as the single-largest party in Sunday’s election, will hold talks with its coalition partners as it struggles to win enough support from the influential Senate.
The talks on Wednesday will largely focus on government formation and future steps, Chaithawat Tulathon, Move Forward’s secretary-general, told reporters in Bangkok. It will be the first meeting between leaders of the new coalition after the pro-democracy parties swept the election that saw a record voter turnout and defeat of parties aligned to the pro-military establishment.
“We’ll discuss preliminary details today, nothing deeper than that yet,” Chaithawat said. “Conditions and agreements on our main agendas that we’ll push together will be discussed at a later stage.”
The Move Forward-led coalition, that also includes Pheu Thai and four other smaller parties previously in the opposition, have about 310 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. But its prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat is well short of the 376 votes needed in a joint sitting of the house with the Senate.
Read More: Thai Pro-Democracy Groups Dominate Vote in Rebuke of Military
Investor reaction to Move Forward’s stunning election win has been mixed with foreign funds pumping in about $371 million into bonds this week while pulling a net $53 million from stocks. While the baht gained the day after the vote, the main stock index has lost 2.5% so far this week, led by a selloff in shares of some companies linked to tycoons who dominate sectors such as telecom and retail.
The intense political jockeying and Senate’s opposition to Move Forward can potentially delay a government formation for months with some analysts pointing to the risk of a new budget bill for 2023-24 being delayed to next year.
Senate Resistance
Some members of the Senate, stacked with allies of the pro-military establishment of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha, have vowed to block Pita’s bid for the top job. Under Thailand’s constitution, the 250-member Senate gets to vote alongside the 500-member lower house in picking the next prime minister until early 2024.
Much of the senators’ opposition to Pita comes from Move Forward’s pledge to amend the lese majeste law, which punishes criticism against King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other members of the royal family.
Thaksin Shinawatra, the influential former premier who lives in exile, said Pheu Thai or anyone from his family won’t back any legislation that could hurt the monarchy. Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter and one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates, said this week her party was open to discussing change to the controversial lese majeste in parliament.
For now, Move Forward is focused on talks within the coalition, Chaithawat said adding that if there’s a chance the party will reach out to as many senators as possible to address their concerns.
Supporters and allies of the Harvard-educated Pita have also mounted pressure on the Senate to back the popular mandate. There have also been calls for parties in the outgoing coalition, such as Democrat and Bhumjaithai — which together have won 96 seats and have previously opposed the Senate’s role in choosing the prime minister — to back Pita as the next leader.
Pita, who has called for reconciliation after the bitterly fought elections, told CNN in an interview on Tuesday that he’s prepared “a strategic response” for different scenarios in the light of the tussle with the Senate.
But there’s unlikely to be any quick solution to the stalemate, according to Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University. The political uncertainty over who gets to rule Thailand next will last at least until the election officials certify the results, which may throw up some twists, he said.
“It’s a difficult situation to navigate, Yuttaporn said. “Move Forward needs to reach out for talks. Forming a government isn’t just about securing a majority under this abnormal political climate.”
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