We had a scant slate of games in terms of looking for college football upsets a week ago. Even then, however, we saw the Red Flags well enough to have the two upsets of the week (Florida beating Tennessee, Missouri toppling Kansas State) on our radar. But Week 4 offers a Cheesecake Factory type of menu of potential upsets.
There are six matchups between teams ranked inside the Top 25 this week, a stat that doesn't even include the highly touted Florida State at Clemson matchup in it as the latter is not currently ranked. With an upset with at home in Death Valley, though, they certainly would be.
So how do we construct our college football upset picks this week with such a loaded slate? It's simple. As always, we just look for the biggest Red Flags. With that, let's get into the college football upsets that are brewing in Week 4.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 6-9
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
College football upset picks: 5 teams on upset alert in Week 4
5. Oregon Ducks
Opponent: 19 Colorado | Time: Saturday, Sept. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: ORE -21.0
There is a high, high chance that the Oregon Ducks are going to put a swift and merciless end to the Colorado Buffaloes hype train after the 3-0 start to the Deion Sanders era. Oregon is a legitimate Top 10 team in the country, the Buffs are without Travis Hunter after he was injured in the Colorado State win, and the game is one of the toughest environments in college football, Autzen Stadium.
When you then factor in some of the questions about Colorado at the lines of scrimmage and overall defensively, specifically with Hunter not on the field, the chips are stacked heavily in Dan Lanning and Bo Nix's favor.
But at this point, I'm not dumb enough to completely count out Coach Prime's Buffs.
We can safely assume that Oregon is going to put up plenty of points in this game. Even with the departure of Kenny Dillingham to take the Arizona State head coaching job, Nix and the Ducks offense have remained explosive and dangerous. Colorado simply doesn't have the dudes or the depth to contend with that consistently defensively.
The sneaky truth about the Ducks, however, is that the defense is a bit suspect. That unit put Oregon in danger against Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago in Lubbock, allowing Tyler Shough to put up big numbers. If Shough wasn't turnover-happy, particularly late in the game, the Red Raiders may well have won.
Shedeur Sanders not only has been much better protecting the football this season, but Colorado might also have more explosive weapons. That's the path for the Buffs to put a scare into Oregon and it's not difficult to see. It might not be the most likely outcome, but the Colorado hype train somehow reaching even more ridiculous levels is not entirely out of the question.
4. Florida State Seminoles
Opponent: at Clemson | Time: Saturday, Sept. 23, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: FSU -2.5
Given that we already saw Clemson Clemsoning this season with a self-inflicted loss to Duke to open the season while also struggling in the first half against FCS Charleston Southern the next week, and that Florida State blasted LSU in Week 1, some people might've overlooked this one in the heavy Week 4 slate. But things have gotten much more interesting.
In the past six quarters for Clemson, things seem to be clicking for Cade Klubnik in Garrett Riley's offense. Sure, it was against Charleston Southern in the second half and then FAU last week, but it's looked like the Tigers we expected to see this season.
On the flip side, Florida State almost got caught in a look-ahead spot last week in Chestnut Hill. The Seminoles were up 31-10 late in the matchup against Boston College, but then got caught in cruise control with the Eagles making it way too close for comfort in the eventual 31-29 win for the Noles.
I've banged the drum since the offseason that Florida State is the class of the ACC and I maintain that belief. However, Mike Norvell's team isn't perfect. They are susceptible in the secondary and, in this matchup specifically against Clemson's defensive front, can be had on the offensive line.
It's going to be a real test with the Tigers starting to fire and, with the game in Death Valley and Clemson holding a long win streak over the Seminoles, it's a test that Florida State will have to pass. And there's no certainty, as is always true in college football, that they will pass it.
3. Utah Utes
Opponent: 22 UCLA | Time: Saturday, Sept. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: UTAH -4.5
The big question for the UCLA Bruins visiting the Utah Utes as the always-rowdy Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday afternoon is if Utah quarterback Cam Rising will make his season debut.
Rising was questionable as far back as the Week 1 win over Florida but has still not played. All signs point to him being on track with the reports of him practicing without limitations, but until there's an official word, we don't know for certain.
Whether or not he plays in this game, though, it's right to be worried about the Utes.
For one, if Rising does play, it's truly impossible to expect him to be playing at 100% effectiveness. Not only is he recovering from an ACL injury suffered on Jan. 1, but he hasn't played in a real game since then either. That's a tough ask. And if he doesn't play, the Utes offense has been getting the job done, but has essentially been a wildcat offense since moving to Nate Johnson over Bryson Barnes.
Then you have a UCLA team that seems to have found a stud in Dante Moore. The true freshman quarterback has been stellar to start his Bruins career and we know that Chip Kelly will dial up some explosive plays -- something he did last year in Los Angeles against the Utes. On top of that, the defense looks much improved and has plenty of real playmakers, particularly in the front seven.
Kyle Whittingham and Utah have earned respect from college football fans an analysts over the years. But this team might not be in the same position we've seen in years past. That could put them in trouble against a true sleeper in UCLA, even at home.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
Opponent: 15 Ole Miss | Time: Saturday, Sept. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: ALA -7.0
How can you not be concerned about Alabama at this point? Yes, any team in the country could lose to Texas. But since that defeat, it's been the worst of vibes for the Crimson Tide. There are rumors that Jalen Milroe was soft-suspended against UCF, which is why Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson got the nod at USF. That, of course, went terribly.
On top of that, this offensive line has not remotely lived up to expectations. And just to keep piling it on, the defense is immensely talented, but has proven susceptible to giving up big plays.
Now they welcome Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss to Tuscaloosa. The Rebels head coach has already started playing mind games in pregame media appearances, which you have to know comes with the territory. At the same time, though, Ole Miss might have also leveled up a bit. Not only is Jaxson Dart playing at a higher level than you might expect, but the Rebels defense -- the pass rush in particular -- looks to be fearsome.
Kiffin is going to be able to find some big plays in this game that put the pressure on Milroe, who is back as Alabama's QB1, and the Tide's offense to answer. There is nothing we've seen consistently to this point to wholeheartedly believe that Bama can, in fact, answer the call.
There have been hyped Ole Miss-Alabama matchups before that have ended up as blowouts in favor of the Crimson Tide. But this ain't that Bama and it might not be that Ole Miss either. Nick Saban will have his work cut out for him to avoid dropping to 2-2 on the season.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Opponent: at 9 Notre Dame | Time: Saturday, Sept. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) | Spread: OSU -3.5
I've perhaps never been more wrong than putting Ohio State on upset alert last week against Western Kentucky. The Buckeyes made me look foolish in just about every way. The defense was monstrous in stifling Austin Reed and the Hilltoppers offense while also Kyle McCord connected for some explosive plays with Marvin Harrison Jr. and company.
Of course, that's not enough for me to learn any lesson other than Western Kentucky's defense might be despicably bad.
Now, the Buckeyes are going to be truly tested as they go on the road to face No. 9-ranked Notre Dame in South Bend. With the addition of Sam Hartman this season, the Fighting Irish have looked more than formidable. The offense has been firing at every level and the defense might be one of the most underrated units in the country.
I still maintain concerns about McCord for Ohio State. He's not been in this type of position before, a Top 10 matchup against a good-to-great defense on the road in a hostile environment. Moreover, the offensive line that was largely rebuilt for the Buckeyes has not been tested in the trenches yet either. The same too could be said of the defense, though I'm less concerned there.
Frankly, I see this matchup not featuring a ton of scoring. The defenses are the best units in this game and that will show. Having said that, I have exponentially more faith in Hartman and Audric Estime to hit the singles and doubles to win with death by 1,000 cuts than I do McCord in a game where explosive plays should be extremely limited.
Especially in South Bend, advantage Notre Dame.
