Each year, there is a mass turnaround at the head coaching position. As much as a third of NFL coaches could be fired, forced to resign, or retire in a single season. So far, no coaches have been given their pink slip in 2023, but that doesn't mean teams haven't come close.
Right now, there are seven teams in the leagues with one win or fewer. Those teams are in very different places in their franchise trajectory, and that will give clues as to who is really on the hot seat and who might be given some rope. Either way, it doesn't matter if a head coach is one of the best ever or a rookie, teams will not stand for incompetence at this level. If the team is good and the record is not, very often the coach is the one who takes the blame.
As we look at an updated version of the hot seat rankings, some of the rankings changed drastically from the preseason. All previous rankings on the list come from the piece we did back in May. A lot can change in five months, especially within the NFL landscape. Who did themselves a solid and saved their job, and who might be looking for their next opportunity?
32. Andy Reid - Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Ranking: 31
Andy Reid is the safest coach in football. Barring an even bigger scandal than the one his son brought to his locker room, nothing will get him fired this season. He's coming off a Super Bowl win. He's doing a lot with less talent than he may have ever had around Patrick Mahomes. He's still likely to win the AFC West, and even a playoff flameout won't make the owners and GM forget about his Super Bowl runs. Reid is here to stay unless he decides it's time to eat his cheeseburgers on the beach in retirement.
31. Kyle Shanahan - San Francisco 49ers
Previous Ranking: 29
Kyle Shanahan is probably the best coach in the NFL right now. He has the San Francisco 49ers looking unstoppable. He's made Brock Purdy into the most efficient quarterback in the league, and Christian McCaffrey has legit MVP hype. The defense is just as good as the offense, which is saying something. The 49ers have to be the smart favorite to win the Super Bowl, and basically, nothing would get Shanahan fired at this point.
30. DeMeco Ryans - Houston Texans
Previous Ranking: 27
This one might come as a surprise, but the Houston Texans are doing even better than expected this season. C.J. Stroud has been the best rookie quarterback in a really talented class. They have an outside chance to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC South. The defensive players are playing above their perceived talent level. Coach Ryans is doing everything right in his first season in Houston. It might sound crazy he's safer than some of the coaches with a longer track record, but his six-year contract comes with a lot of security, as well.
29. Nick Sirianni - Philadelphia Eagles
Previous Ranking: 30
It seems unfair that Nick Sirianni dropped in the rankings despite going 5-0 to start the season. It's not really anything he's done. He's still untouchable. The Eagles and 49ers are the two best teams in the league. Their clash in what we hope is the NFC Championship could be an all-timer. We just need these two teams to stay healthy. Sirianni has Jalen Carter looking like the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year. His offense has focused more on the running game, and it's allowing the Eagles to control the game. Everything is going right in the City of Brotherly Love.
28. Dan Campbell - Detroit Lions
Previous Ranking: 15
This is the first big change on this list. Dan Campbell was coming into this season with his Detroit Lions getting all of the hype. Sometimes, that hype can be deadly for a head coach. If he couldn't get his team to live up to what people expected of them, then he would be on the hot seat. The Lions have responded to the hype and then some. They are dominating the NFC North and will likely win it in a landslide. Campbell has his team in a really good spot and they could be good for a long time.
27. Shane Steichen - Indianapolis Colts
Previous Ranking: 25
Shane Steichen has looked pretty good in his first few games as head coach. This despite his starting quarterback Anthony Richardson getting hurt three times. He's not out for a considerable amount of time with a shoulder injury, and now he's going forward with Gardner Minshew. Anything can happen with the Colts and owner Jim Irsay, but the prevailing thought is Steichen should be one of the safest coaches in the league. Now that he has a happy Jonathan Taylor back, the offense should look even more dynamic even with Minshew.
26. Mike McDaniel - Miami Dolphins
Previous Ranking: 22
The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They lead the league in rushing touchdowns and are one behind the lead in passing touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards, De'Von Achane is second in rushing yards (despite missing a game), Tyreek Hill leads in receiving yards, and Raheem Mostert leads the league in rushing touchdowns. Mike McDaniel has taken the pieces of a superstar offense and turned it into the best offense. He has done amazing work so far. Now, he has to learn how to stop someone, but that will come with time and Jalen Ramsey.
25. Mike Tomlin - Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous Ranking: 20
Mike Tomlin isn't public enemy No. 1 in Pittsburgh, and that has him as safe as ever. The fact his team keeps winning in spite of his offensive coordinator's flaws falls back on the head coach. Matt Canada has caused massive frustration in the Steel City. His presence has nobody curious about Tomlin's job status. Honestly, they shouldn't be. This team just beat their biggest rival the Ravens, they lead the AFC North, and they have a pretty simple schedule coming up after their Week 6 bye.
24. Pete Carroll - Seattle Seahawks
Previous Ranking: 28
Pete Carroll came into the season as one of the safest coaches in the league. Nothing has really changed that much. Geno Smith still looks really good under center. The Seahawks only have one loss on the season, and it came in Week 1. Their past two wins aren't too impressive (Giants and Panthers), but being the Lions only loss has to be up there. Carroll isn't going anywhere unless he decides he wants to go somewhere. He is 72 years old, so that's possible, but it wouldn't be until the end of the season.
23. Sean McVay - Los Angeles Rams
Previous Ranking: 18
The Los Angeles Rams have been one of the most positive surprises in the National Football League. Most saw a team built around Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and nothing else. When Kupp went down with an ankle injury, it seemed like season over for the team. Then, Puka Nacua became one of the best receivers in the league. He has 572 yards, second only to Tyreek Hill. The Rams are 2-3, but they've had a pretty insane schedule to start. It lightens up, and the Rams could seriously contend for a playoff spot at the end of the season.
22. Doug Pederson - Jacksonville Jaguars
Previous Ranking: 17
This was the hardest coach to rank. Putting it all out there on the table. Doug Pederson is probably safe, but we could also see a world where things go wrong, the Colts win the division, and the Khan family wants to take Trevor Lawrence and their future in a different direction. For now, he's the head coach. He's coming off a big game against the Buffalo Bills. The come-from-behind win in the playoffs probably has him safer than some think. As long as Lawrence is progressing, Pederson is safe.
21. Jonathan Gannon - Arizona Cardinals
Previous Ranking: 10
Yeah, we were wrong on this one, but so was everyone else. This was a weird offseason for the Arizona Cardinals, and the head coach wasn't helping the situation. Yet, despite only having one win, the Cardinals are competing every week. Nobody expected this team to do anything. So, competing with Josh Dobbs under center is huge for Jonathan Gannon's job security.
20. Sean Payton - Denver Broncos
Previous Ranking: 32
Prior to the season, Sean Payton finished last (or first depending on how you look at the list) on our rankings. Then, games were played and 70 points were scored on this defense. The only win came against a terrible Bears team. Everyone is knocking the bricks off the Broncos, and Payton might think a different opportunity would have been better. At this point, resigning is much more likely than a firing. That's why the ranking is here instead of closer to the top ten. Plus, the wild card that is benching Russell Wilson is still an option. Going 1-5 after a Thursday night loss to the Chiefs gives Payton 10 days to think about his next move.
19. John Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens
Previous Ranking: 24
John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin probably switch places before last week. That's how important it is to win the Steelers-Ravens games each season. They let the Steelers take over first in the AFC North, and they didn't take advantage of the slow starts from the Browns and Bengals. We've told you before how Harbaugh and the Ravens haven't been past the Division Round of the playoffs since winning Super Bowl XLVII. It is getting to put up or shut up time, but we're not there yet.
18. Zac Taylor - Cincinnati Bengals
Previous Ranking: 26
What do we do with Zac Taylor and the Cincinnati Bengals? They've had a dreadful start despite being Super Bowl contenders coming into the season. Joe Burrow's injury has a lot to do with it, but it's so much more than that. The 16.6 points per game show nothing is working for them. That's bottom five in the league. Meanwhile, the defense is allowing 22.8 points per game, which is way below average. Nothing has gone right in Cincy, but luckily for Taylor, he has enough time and rope to turn it around.
17. Todd Bowles - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previous Ranking: 4
One of the biggest jumps on this list, Todd Bowles has done a fantastic job with this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. He's helped Baker Mayfield restart his career. Mike Evans is still a star and driving offense. Tom Brady retired, and this team might actually be better. Nobody is saying Mayfield is better than Brady, but maybe the pressure of Brady became too much for this team. With that gone, this team currently has first place in the NFC South under lock and key.
16. Arthur Smith - Atlanta Falcons
Previous Ranking: 13
For now, Arthur Smith feels slightly safer than he did before the season, but he still doesn't feel completely safe, right? Desmond Ridder hasn't looked good. Bijan Robinson looks better than advertised. The offense has struggled despite that. They only score 16.6 points per game (sixth worst in the league). The offense was supposed to drive this team, and it was supposed to come from the brain of Smith. He's not unsafe yet, but let's check in again at the midway point of the season.
15. Brian Daboll - New York Giants
Previous Ranking: 19
Maybe Brian Daboll should have fallen further on this list, but he feels pretty safe no matter what. They really like him in New York. With the Yankees and Mets having terrible seasons and keeping their managers, the pressure in New York to perform might not be the same. Either way, this can turn very fast. Daboll is not going to survive a two-win season. Daniel Jones took 10 steps back this season. They expect to get Saquon Barkley back this week, so that should help a desperate offense that couldn't protect anyone at this point.
14. Sean McDermott - Buffalo Bills
Previous Ranking: 21
This might feel high but don't forget what many were saying after Week 1. Sean McDermott's seat is very hot this season. His team needs to perform in the playoffs. He needs to win this division with a very hot Miami Dolphins team on their tails. They can't lose games like they did against the Jaguars last week. Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, so that's helping his case. They've overcome whatever was happening with Stefon Diggs in the offseason. However, it's a playoff run or possibly a new job for McDermott this season.
13. Robert Salah - New York Jets
Previous Ranking: 9
This one's a tough one. If Aaron Rodgers is healthy and the Jets are 2-3 with a loss to the lowly Patriots, then he might be No. 1 on this list. However, he lost Rodgers in the first series of the season. Now, he's trying to win with Zach Wilson under center. They are even coming close! They beat the Bills despite losing Rodgers on that opening night. A game against the Philadelphia Eagles this week is not ideal, but they get the bye the next week. If Salah survives the bye (which he should), he probably sticks around all season.
12. Dennis Allen - New Orleans Saints
Previous Ranking: 3
Dennis Allen had a scorching hot seat before the season, but it's cooled down precipitously. Last week's destruction of Bill Belichick and the Patriots helped him look like a competent leader. However, this is still a flawed team in a division they should probably be leading. They survived the Alvin Kamara suspension. The offense still looks stilted with Derek Carr. The defense is fine. There's nothing too fabulous about this team, which tells us that it can turn bad at any moment.
11. Matt LaFleur - Green Bay Packers
Previous Ranking: 14
The Green Bay Packers have been pretty bad this season. The post-Rodgers era with Jordan Love has been Struggle City. They are 2-3, and their two wins came against the Saints and Bears. It's been a rough year, and LaFleur hasn't done himself any favors. The loss on Monday Night Football to the Raiders in DaVante Adams' revenge game couldn't help his case. He's still somewhat safe, as in we don't think he will be fired midseason, but he's definitely someone who has something to prove.
10. Mike Vrabel - Tennessee Titans
Previous Ranking: 11
Mike Vrabel hasn't done anything to really help or hurt his ranking on the hot seat. It was possible the Titans would nosedive this season, but that hasn't really happened. They haven't exactly looked good, but they've survived the early games. The issue is that is all they are doing: surviving. Because of tiebreakers, they are in last place in the division. If that's what it looks like at the end of the season, it's hard to think Vrabel survives.
9. Frank Reich - Carolina Panthers
Previous Ranking: 23
For every coach that makes a huge jump in the rankings, there has to be a few that take a nosedive. That's what happened to Frank Reich, who in his first year in Carolina, sits as the only winless coach in the NFL. The Panthers are doing this while the Chicago Bears own an unprotected first-round pick in 2024. They have just about nothing to promote outside Adam Theilen turning back the clock. Brian Burns has been alright, but the rest of this team is mediocre at best. That includes Bryce Young, who has been one of the worst QBs in the league. The Panthers made too big an investment to take Young to waste it on the wrong head coach.
8. Josh McDaniels - Las Vegas Raiders
Previous Ranking: 5
Don't let this ranking fool you, we're in the "very hot" seat part of our rankings. Josh McDaniels could be fired after Week 6 and we wouldn't be floored. However, a big win on Monday Night Football against the Packers has quelled the calls for his head. The Raiders have been alright at times, but they've been mostly bad. Josh Jacobs and DaVante Adams have spoken up about their hatred for losing. If more losses pile up, McDaniels will be back to an offensive coordinator position somewhere else.
7. Mike McCarthy - Dallas Cowboys
Previous Ranking: 2
Mike McCarthy is still the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones must like him or something. The Cowboys have been pretty good at times and pretty bad at times. Last week was one of those bad games. Dak Prescott's interception issue reared its ugly head. This always feels like the hottest seat, but something feels different in Dallas. Playoff contention seems to be enough. The Cowboys will definitely be there all season, so McCarthy is probably coaching until at least the offseason.
6. Bill Belichick - New England Patriots
Previous Ranking: 16
Things keep going from bad to worse in New England. The post-Tom Brady era has been pretty bad compared to what those fans are used to. It's never been this bad, though. The Patriots are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to the Cowboys and Saints. Those aren't even the best teams in the league. Mac Jones gets worse seemingly every game. Bailey Zappe is no better. The only positive on this entire team, Christian Gonzalez, is out for the season. It might be time to put everyone out of their misery.
5. Kevin Stefanski - Cleveland Browns
Previous Ranking: 8
The Cleveland Browns have had one of the best, if not the best, defense in the NFL. Yet, Kevin Stefanski is on one of the hottest seats in the NFL. That's because his team has two wins. Deshaun Watson might not play again despite rumors saying he's been cleared for weeks. Something is strange in Cleveland this season. This team is the reason ownership signed off on the Watson trade despite the allegations against him. They have all the pieces to win it all except the quarterback. Now, it appears they still don't have the right QB, and that coach will probably pay the price for that.
4. Kevin O'Connell - Minnesota Vikings
Previous Ranking: 6
The Minnesota Vikings got terrible news this week when Justin Jefferson was placed on IR with a hamstring injury. Now, the one-win Vikings could sell. Kirk Cousins might be on the trade block. They should probably sell everything, and it's hard to see a world where Kevin O'Connell survives this. He could get fired at any time, which is the story for everyone in the top five.
3. Brandon Staley - Los Angeles Chargers
Previous Ranking: 1
Brandon Staley was the hottest seat in the league coming into the season. Now, his seat has cooled ever so slightly. Justin Herbert was great prior to the bye week, and now a rested team looks at 13 more weeks. What will this offense look like without Mike Williams? How will Austin Ekeler get back into the swing of things? There are a lot of questions, and Staley needs to answer them pretty perfectly to keep his job. He will not survive missing the playoffs.
2. Ron Rivera - Washington Commanders
Previous Ranking: 7
Maybe this is an overreaction to the loss to the Bears, but Ron Rivera is the odds-on favorite at some sportsbook to be the first coach fired. The Commanders have a new ownership group, and they were hoping for a competitive team to watch in Year 1. There have been many issues: Sam Howell hasn't been that good, the offensive line might be the worst in the league, and the defense has been brutal at times. Most wouldn't put all of this on Ron Rivera, but at some point, a team wants to send a message. Rivera's job is definitely seriously in jeopardy, especially with Eric Bieniemy.
1. Matt Eberflus - Chicago Bears
Previous Ranking: 12
Don't let one win on a Thursday night fool you, the Chicago Bears are not coached well, and it's on Matt Eberflus. Justin Fields looks better the past two weeks, DJ Moore is playing like a number one, and Cole Kmet turned his season around, but the rest of this team is still bad. The defense can't hold a lead, even against the Broncos. The playcalling changes in the worst possible way whether they are up or down. Chicago is a bad team that deserves a better coach.
