Expected points added is a comparison of game states and a look at how much scoring a team or player has added, on an expected basis, to its point total.
It's a helpful measure for quarterbacks, who are tasked with creating drives down the field to set their respective teams up to score. A high EPA for a quarterback would indicate they have done a good job managing the offense and putting their team in a position to win games.
We revealed our straight-up power rankings earlier this week as we do each Tuesday, but for some Friday fun, let's take a look at how each team's starting quarterback has done, from worst to first, in terms of expected points added per play.
There are some surprises in here. Of course, we must remember that we're just two weeks in. Plenty of time for this to turn around.
Data courtesy of RBSDM's Shiny app.
32. Steelers: Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett, with an EPA per play of -0.304, continues to be a somewhat disappointing quarterback in Pittsburgh. We need him to get out under the shadow of Matt Canada before we can truly make a determination, though.
31. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence is the first shock on the list, coming in at -0.205. He has thrown just one touchdown and is surely the most likely quarterback to jump several spots up this list in just a few week's time.
30. Panthers: Bryce Young
Bryce Young is still figuring it out. No shock to see rookies this far down the list who are thrust right into starting roles.
29. Browns: Deshaun Watson
Not a shock to see Deshaun Watson this low, but it is further evidence that the Browns made a questionable choice to trade for Watson, and an even more questionable choice to give him guaranteed money. Just... why?
28. Bears: Justin Fields
Justin Fields and the Bears are in a dire situation. This week, he said he thinks he's overthinking, and he appeared to blame coaching for that. He, hours later, told the media he felt his quotes were mischaracterized. It was a dramatic day with a coordinator scandal to boot as well.
Now all Fields has to do to up his EPA is go up against Chris Jones and the Chiefs this Sunday at Arrowhead.
Ope.
27: Jets: Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson was not supposed to be the starter for the Jets this year. Nevertheless, we're here. He has a -0.180 EPA per play.
26: Bengals: Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow's calf injury really seems to be still bothering him, and it's impacting his personal play and the Bengals' success as they sit 0-2.
Burrow's completion percentage is at a career-low 56.9 percent.
25: Eagles: Jalen Hurts
The Eagles are 2-0, and Hurts' -0.080 EPA per play is one that doesn't make a ton of sense just yet. This one should increase easily as more games are played. Hurts was top-10 here last year.
24. Texans: C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud, for a rookie, is pretty high up this list. His -0.072 EPA indicates he's adjusting well to the pro level. He has two touchdowns, 626 yards, and no interceptions through Week 2. He's tied for fourth in passes completed and total yards. He's also been sacked a league-leading 11 times, the biggest area for him and the Texans to focus in on to keep improving here.
23. Giants: Daniel Jones
How far down the list would Jones be not for the team's Week 2 comeback? Nearly dead last (30th, to be exact). His heroics launched him up the ranks and place him slightly in the positive at 0.019.
We only considered Week 1 and 2 for this article, so the Thursday night performance is not factored in.
22. Cardinals: Joshua Dobbs
Dobbs and the Cardinals sit at 22nd in this stat. He's probably outperforming his role, but still underwhelming comparatively.
21. Titans: Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill is another quarterback who saw this number restored slightly after Week 2. He is the last of quarterbacks with a negative EPA per play at -.040.
20. Patriots: Mac Jones
Mac Jones is the first of quarterbacks with a positive EPA per play at 0.010. He'll need to step it up in order to compete in the AFC East with the Dolphins and Bills.
19. Falcons: Desmond Ridder
Desmond Ridder comes in just above the halfway mark. The Falcons also are 15th in yards per game and appear to be a pretty much middle-of-the-road team so far this year. That said, they are 2-0. Hard to argue with wins.
17. Colts: Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson is the best rookie starter of the trio of he, Stroud, and Young. He comes in at 0.016 adjusted EPA per play, and with him in concussion protocol, that number may stand for a bit longer. Richardson already has three rushing touchdowns this season.
17. Saints: Derek Carr
Derek Carr and the Saints are 2-0, but have struggled deeply in the red zone. Still, his ability to get drives moving gives him a 0.070 EPA per play.
16. Commanders: Sam Howell
Sam Howell has held his own, with a 0.081 EPA per play so far. Washington is 2-0 after taking down the Broncos in Week 2 after handling the Cardinals relatively easy in Week 1.
15. Chargers: Justin Herbert
The AFC West struggles considerably here, save for one surprising quarterback, with Herbert puting up 0.109.
14. Raiders: Lamar Jackson
There are bound to be growing pains for a quarterback attempting to throw more than he ever has before. Jackson is middle of the pack here, another quarterback that could very well jump up the ranks in the future. That said, he ranked 14th last year, too.
Jackson is in the top 10 of all quarterbacks with at least 200 plays going back to the start of 2018.
13. Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
It might give Chiefs fans a heart palpitation to see Mahomes this far down the list, but fear not. Firstly, remember his receiving corps has given him some struggle to start the year.
Secondly, he's still the single-best QB in this stat going back to 2012 with a 0.174 overall, beating the No. 2 Peyton Manning at 0.160.
No doubts here, Mahomes will be back on track soon enough.
12. Seahawks: Geno Smith
Geno Smith remains an underrated replacement for Russell Wilson in Seattle, with a 0.148 EPA per play so far this year. Back to the start of 2022, Smith has a 0.111 in this stat (ranked 15th) while Wilson has a 0.032 (ranked 32nd).
11. Rams: Matt Stafford
Matthew Stafford just misses out on the top-10 as the Rams sit at 1-1.
10. Bills: Josh Allen
Even with three interceptions to his record from Week 1, Allen gets inside the top-10 quarterbacks in this metric at 0.167. They'll be a good test for the Commanders in Week 3 to see how real that Washington team truly is.
Back to 2018, Allen sits 11th among all quarterbacks above 200 total plays.
9. Vikings: Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins is in what will effectively be a contract year, continuing to prove he can position you for won games with a 0.180 adjusted EPA per play. Going back to 2018, Cousins ranks 23rd in this stat at 0.130.
8. Browns: Baker Mayfield
The Browns should have kept Baker Mayfield.
7. Broncos: Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson finds redemption so far this year, but would probably rather have two wins than rank seventh overall in EPA. Denver has been right there in their two losses, and with a new head coach, growing pains could be real. With an average loss margin of 1.5 points, they should start winning soon... Right?!
6. Lions: Jared Goff
Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions might be for real! After a hot start to end last season, they came out hot and upset the Chiefs in Week 1.
Detroit did fall to the Seahawks in overtime in Week 2, but have averaged 26 points per game and are third in yards per game so far.
5. Raiders: Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo might not be an elite quarterback, but he's a good game manager, and his EPA per play proves it. He finds himself in the top-5 once again, and he still ranks fourth among quarterbacks going back to 2018.
4. 49ers: Brock Purdy
Mr. Irrelevant keeps getting more and more relevant. Last year, Purdy put up a 0.196 in this stat. That doesn't look like a fluke at all, considering he had a 0.255 EPA per play through two weeks.
Purdy, considering quarterbacks from 2018 through 2023's Week 2 with at least 200 plays under their belt, ranks third in adjusted EPA per play at 0.219 on his career. That puts him right behind Mahomes (0.303) and Drew Brees (0.283). Goodness.
We did not consider Thursday's Week 3 in this publication.
3. Cowboys: Dak Prescott
The Dallas Cowboys defense has been viewed as the elite part of the Cowboys, but make no mistake: They are a two-way team. Prescott has a 0.382 EPA per play so far this season and a completion percentage of 67.1%.
2. Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa is having an awesome redemption season thus far after a tough 2022 where he experienced multiple concussions and legitimate questions over how much longer his NFL career would continue. Now, those questions look silly, as Tua has amassed a league-leading 715 passing yards and four touchdowns.
Miami is also first in yards per game with 462.5. The AFC East got a little weaker when Aaron Rodgers' season ended early, but it's still going to be a bloodbath.
Most importantly, his team is 2-0.
1. Packers: Jordan Love
Jordan Love stands atop the quarterbacks as the league leader in adjusted EPA per play at 0.478. In fact, looking at 2022 and 2023, Love is has a better adjusted EPA per play than any other quarterback (0.402). Second across the two seasons is 0.287.
Can this hold? Absolutely not. That number is otherworldly high, but it does justify the Packers' decision to shift from Aaron Rodgers to Love even further. Love's six touchdowns and 11.5 percent touchdown rate led the NFL after two weeks as well, and Love has yet to throw an interception.
Love is not a true rookie or even a redshirt rookie, now in his third season, but he's already coming up on his passing attempt total from 2021 and 2022 in 2023.
