As we head into week 13 of the NFL season, there is much debate about who will win the league MVP. In every sport, the debate is what exactly the MVP means. Is it the player who had the best season? Is it the best player in the league? Is it the best player on the team with the best record?
Statistics cut through opinion-based power rankings. Numbers never lie, and so numbers should determine the MVP and the MVP Power rankings. The question is, what number or statistic should be used to do this?
For starters, let's compare only quarterbacks for MVP since the only way a non-QB is going to get MVP is if they break an all-time record, and even then, the league is still giving the MVP to a quarterback (sorry Myles Garret and Christian McCaffrey). To quantify how valuable a quarterback is, we need to look at team wins (since no QB is getting MVP from an 8-9 team), and how a quarterback contributes to team wins.
The Formula
The biggest contributions a quarterback can make to wins are the yards they gain (passing and rushing) and the points they score (Touchdowns = 6 points). Since turnovers can lead to losses, they should be subtracted in giant fashion from a player's point total, since a player who turns the ball over a lot, his team is winning despite him, not because of him.
The formula I came up with (this is not an official stat, at least not yet) is a player's total yards +points (TD's x 6)-(INT's + Fumbles) x 100) = total points. Total points are then divided by the team's points+yards. This will give you a percentage of the team's production the player is responsible for. The percentage is multiplied by the team's total wins, and you get our MVP Power ranking number, which is the number of wins the player is personally responsible for based on their statistical production.
We'll use Jared Goff as an example. He has 3,075 passing yards + 23 rushing yards + 120 points (18 pass TD's + 2 rush TD's) - 1300 (8 INT + 5 Fumbles = 13 x 100) = 1,918 total points. The Lions have gained 4,460 yards and scored 294 points this season. So, 1,918 divided by 4,754 = .4034. The Lions have 8 wins x .4034 = 3.227. Jared Goff is responsible for 3.227 wins so far this year.
The Rankings
1. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - 5.226 Wins
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs - 4.024 Wins
3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles - 3.894 Wins
4. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers - 3.369 Wins
5. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans - 3.326 Wins
6. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars - 3.319
7. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions - 3.227 Wins
8. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens - 2.862 Wins
9. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills - 2.501 Wins
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins - 2.127 Wins
Dak has been very efficient this year, with only 6 interceptions and 1 fumble, while accounting for 28 touchdowns (26 passing and 2 rushing). This means he accounts for 58.07 percent of the Cowboys wins, and they've won 9 games so far.
CJ Stroud accounted for 55.44 percent of his team's wins, however, his team has unfortunately only won 6 games, which is why he is in fifth place. Tua shot himself in the foot with 10 interceptions and 10 fumbles on the year so far. If he were better at protecting the ball, he might be at the top of this list with the season he's having.
As for Jalen Hurts, he has also been hit with the turnover bug. He has 10 interceptions and 6 fumbles on the season. In no way will numbers like that get on any list above Dak Prescott.
The numbers don't lie, and they don't have any opinions or biases. They just are. Dak Prescott is the front-runner for MVP because of some Cowboys fandom conspiracy theory. He's the front-runner because the numbers say he is.
