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New Orleans Pelicans have found their groove on offense

2023-11-23 05:27
After a dominant win against the Sacramento Kings, the New Orleans Pelicans have won three of their last four and appear to have found their groove on offense.
New Orleans Pelicans have found their groove on offense

It should be taken with a grain of salt — the Sacramento Kings played without key bench contributors Sasha Vezenkov and Trey Lyles, also lost Keegan Murray and Chris Duarte halfway, and the team was on the second leg of a back-to-back. However, the New Orleans Pelicans beating them 129-93 is still impressive considering it ended the Kings' six-game winning streak, and that New Orleans has now beaten the Kings, Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets in a week.

The Pelicans had a shaky start, going 4-6 in their first 10 games, which included a five-game losing streak. In that span, they averaged 107.7 points per 100 possessions. But they've bounced back, winning three of their last four, that one loss being by one point against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and without Zion Williamson (rest). They've scored at a rate of 122.5 points per 100 possessions in those four.

Here's how the Pelicans have been able to rattle off these impressive wins and get their season back on track.

Role players have stepped up

The talent the Pelicans have at the top has never been in doubt. The duo of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram is among the most talented in the league, and can get a team to the postseason with the proper supporting cast. While their consistency on defense is questionable, their talent on offense is undeniable. Williamson can barrel his way to the rim and score one-on-one, while Ingram has developed into one of the best mid-range creators in the league.

In previous years, even though the team in general had good offensive stats, it felt like the supporting cast around the All-Star duo could be better. The team has lacked players that can handle the ball and create on offense, as well as spacing around Zion and BI so as to not clog the lane for them. This season, that dynamic has changed in two key ways

First, new additions Jordan Hawkins and Matt Ryan have helped a ton with shooting and floor spacing.

Ryan had bounced around the league for a couple of seasons and garnered some attention when playing with the Los Angeles Lakers (what role player doesn't, for better or for worse), which ironically included a game-tying 3 against the Pels last season. This offseason, he went under the radar as a signing by New Orleans, inking a two-way deal. In terms of value, he's been a steal — in 13 games (22.9 minutes per outing), he's averaging 9.3 points on an incredible 47.1 percent from 3 on 5.2 attempts. Among players who have attempted at least 45 catch-and-shoot 3s this season, Ryan ranks fourth in percentage (46.8 percent).

Hawkins, on the other hand, came in as a lottery pick, and slowly but surely carved out a prominent role in a deep guard rotation. He came into the league already being a lights-out scorer and shooter, averaging 16.2 points per game on 38.8 percent from 3 in his second season with UConn. He's been able to translate those skills well to the NBA level, averaging 13 points per game on 36.2 percent from 3.

He's cooled off recently, relatively speaking, which is expected for a young scoring guard. Yet, he's still been one of the most reliable catch-and-shoot threats in the league and has had big moments, including a 31-point outing in Denver against the defending champs. At best, the Pelicans found a great guard for the future. At worst, he's a key shooter in their rotation at the moment.

Next, two young players have improved massively with handling offensive responsibility, both taking the burden off of Zion and Brandon, while also diversifying New Orleans' offense — Dyson Daniels and Herb Jones.

In the absence of CJ McCollum, who has been out with a collapsed right lung, Daniels has been incredible as the starting lead guard. In the last seven games, all starts, Daniels is averaging 10 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.9 steals per game on 45/32/88.9 shooting splits. In that span, he only had two games where he didn't score in double figures. Throwing Herb into the mix, they have formed a duo of versatile perimeter defenders that have shined with the ball in their hands, giving the Pels a varied attack. In his return to the lineup since a right leg injury, Jones is averaging 14.5 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2.8 steals and 1.8 blocks per game on 59.4/54.5/87.5 shooting splits.

While the advantage New Orleans has over other teams heading into the season was their depth, they haven't been healthy all season. On Monday, they got some reinforcements in the form of José Alvarado, who contributed 5 points and 3 assists in 15 minutes. His addition gives them a player who will play with 100 percent effort all the time, can create and maintain advantages with his speed, and is a nightmare for opposing backup guards.

Zion Williamson's struggles this season

When healthy, Williamson has been one of the most unstoppable forces the league has seen. At only 6-foot-6, he's averaged over 25 points per outing on 60 percent shooting, without any real threat of an outside shot, which will never not be insane. However, the health has been an important factor, given that coming into this season he had only played in 114 of 317 possible games, all being in the regular season.

This season, though, he's been healthy, playing in 11 of the Pels' 14 games, missing two of them that were on the second leg of a back-to-back. His play, however, has been worse when compared to last season and his 2020-21 campaign, his best season, particularly his efficiency around the basket.

We can speculate for days on why his numbers are down. It could be health related, and it wouldn't be shocking considering he missed all but 29 games last season due to a hamstring injury, missed all of the season prior with a foot injury, and the Pels' front office hasn't been the most honest about his health at times. He could still be working his way back to 100 percent and doesn't have the same burst.

But it's just as likely that the Pelicans haven't always been getting him quality looks, which has shifted recently with their success. Zion can benefit from being used in more 'catch-and-go' type of scenarios, where a teammate creates an advantage and he attacks the rim. It could also be a matter of him missing tough looks he's made in the past. In which case, time will tell. But it's worth monitoring his numbers throughout the season.

Zion and Brandon Ingram will have to step up when it matters

While they still are missing McCollum and Trey Murphy III, two awesome shooters and play finishers, and Larry Nance Jr, one of their most important contributors last season, has been out for the last four games, they still have a very good squad. They now have multiple players that can create and make life easier for the All-Star tandem.

Though, at the end of the day, any postseason success they have relies on them being healthy and the duo coming up big when it matters. Ingram has played well in the postseason/Play-In setting, and Zion hasn't played in a playoff game. In those settings, where the game gets slower and all possessions matter more, they will need to adjust to exceling in the half-court.

It was promising to see some glimpses of what their good play in the clutch looks like against the Nuggets in a game where they blew a big lead, but were able to maintain it.

It's now or never for the Pelicans

When they traded for CJ McCollum last year, it was pretty obvious that he was the shooter and offensive weapon the team was missing, but his defense has always been questionable. And while Dyson doesn't have the shooting capability that CJ does, he does provide great defense, and this season has done enough on offense to not be a negative on that end.

Though it's a small sample size, their current starting lineup (Daniels/Herb/Ingram/Williamson/Jonas Valanciunas) has been elite in the 3-1 stretch they may give the Pelicans more to think about even when McCollum is back. While there will be games where McCollum's shooting will be necessary, there will be others where Daniels' defense is, and he could still provide ball-handling and driving (if he keeps up his good play). While there will be games where McCollum's shooting will be necessary, there will be others where Daniels' defense is, and he could still provide ball-handling and driving (if he keeps up his good play). .

Although all but four of their players are under 30 years old (oldest outside of that group is 26, while their oldest in general is 32), they have a talented group on team-friendly deals, and have to take advantage of that opportunity now. And given how hard the new CBA makes it for teams going over the luxury tax starting next season, their best window is for the next two seasons.

They're currently over the luxury tax and will have to make big decisions on key free agents in the next two seasons. For 2024, Ryan, Naji Marshall and Jonas Valanciunas are all free agents. For 2025, Alvarado, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr. and Brandon Ingram can test the free-agent market.

They are in prime position to compete with the best, as their role players have stepped up and are performing well, and their star players have room to grow. Their offense is average (was bad prior to this hot streak), and their defense has been very shaky, but can be elite on both ends if they can put it together. It's all about putting both together at the same time.