Make no mistake about it, the Miami Heat have been THE story of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Rising from the play-in ladder to the Finals, they may look like a team of destiny, but Nikola Jokic and his Denver Nuggets will simply be too much for them to handle.
First things first, I respect the heck out of Pat Riley, Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. This organization is what pro sports should always be about: Toughness, togetherness, effort and passion for the game.
But I have to look past my respect when it comes to analyzing the NBA Finals. I simply need to look at technicalities and basketball nuances.
With that in mind, there's absolutely no question in my mind that the Nuggets are the better team here.
What gives the Denver Nuggets a major upper hand in this series?
When you have Nikola Jokic in the middle, the best basketball player on the planet, everything else sort of falls into place for your offense.
Looking at the numbers, the Nuggets have averaged 116.4 points per game in the postseason, to 111.7 for the Heat. So yes the Nuggets already have the advantage, but even that 111.7 figure is skewed for the Heat. They haven't reached 105 points for five consecutive playoff games now.
Spoelstra's offense has been sputtering a bit, probably due to the incredibly long grind of the postseason. There are a lot of tired legs out there for Miami.
Looking back to the regular season, the Nuggets averaged 115.8 points per game to Miami's 109.5. In fact, the Heat were the lowest-scoring team in the entire NBA.
The NBA has become an offensive-minded league in recent years, and the Nuggets definitely have the advantage when it comes to putting the ball in the basket.
The separation in 'rest' isn't even fair
Mike Malone, Jokic and Jamal Murray took care of LeBron James' Lakers as quickly as possible in the Western Conference Finals, so now they are extremely well-rested.
On the flip side, Butler, Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin and the Heat have been grinding the entire way through. Talk about an uphill slog to get to where they are now.
It's honestly not even fair. The Nuggets have been the better team the entire season and they are coming in rested, relaxed and ready to go. I knew the Heat had a good shot against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, but I simply don't feel the same way here.
The Nuggets can be physically and strategically overwhelming, coming at you from every possible angle of attack.
NBA Finals predictions by game
Here are my predictions for the NBA Finals, game-by-game:
- Game 1 winner: Denver Nuggets
- Game 2: Nuggets
- Game 3: Heat
- Game 4: Nuggets
- Game 5: Nuggets
Ultimately, I have the Denver Nuggets beating the Miami Heat, 4-1 in the NBA Finals. The Nuggets are the Vegas favorites to win it all, and I think they outclass the Heat in virtually every aspect of the game.
I have nothing but respect for Spoelstra, Butler and the Heat, but I simply think they are out of their league here. Jokic, Murray and the Nuggets will be the 2023 NBA champions.
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