The Miami Marlins have won back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Angels heading into Sunday's series finale.
Miami is third in the NL East and now back over .500 after those wins, competing despite a minus-43 run differential on the season.
The Marlins have an electric young rotation with a lot of hard throwers, and we'll get to see one of them on Sunday. Eury Perez (1-1, 3.86 ERA) will make his fourth Major League start against Angels lefty Patrick Sandoval (3-3, 3.47 ERA).
This should be a fun pitching matchup, but who has the edge? Let's break down the odds and a pick for this game:
Marlins vs. Angels odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Angels prediction and pick
If we're looking strictly at the starters, Sandoval has the advantage this season.
Perez has been solid, allowing just 11 hits and striking out 16 across 14 innings of work, but he's also walked six batters. His Fielding Independent Pitching sits at 5.07, which is more than a run higher than his ERA and much higher than Sandoval's FIP of 4.04.
However, there is a key offensive reason why I actually like Miami to win this game as an underdog.
The Marlins rank fifth in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching, which is a huge leap from their season-long ranking (20th in OPS).
Los Angeles (10th in OPS) has been a strong hitting team all season, but the team doesn't work a ton of walks (21st in MLB) which is one of the best ways to get to Perez.
Los Angeles has the bullpen advantage in terms of ERA this season, but I think the Miami offense could thrive against Sandoval to complete the sweep.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
