Iron ore fell for the first time in nine sessions as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned that property weakness would likely be a multi-year growth drag for China’s economy.
The steel-making staple dropped almost 5% in Singapore after the investment bank said in a note that it sees persistent problems in Chinese real-estate, mainly related to lower-tier cities and private developer financing. There was no quick fix and the property recovery was likely to be “L-shaped,” according to Goldman.
The warning comes after iron ore jumped 14% over the previous eight sessions as Beijing stepped up wider measures to revive its stalled recovery, and also on hopes for more targeted policy to improve the property market, a key source of demand for the steel-making ingredient. However, Goldman said it didn’t expect more housing-specific stimulus and suggested Beijing would likely seek to reduce economic and fiscal reliance on the sector.
China’s daily crude steel output will likely drop to 2.94 million tons in early June, down 0.5% from late May and 1.6% from a year earlier when the economy was still hobbled by virus restrictions, researcher Mysteel said in a note.
Iron ore fell as much as 4.8% to $107.15 a ton before trading at $107.40 as of 10:38 a.m. in Singapore. Futures in Dalian fell 3%, while steel rebar and hot-rolled coil futures dropped more than 1.5% in Shanghai.
