"The floor is still $500 million."
Those were the words of a prominent National League executive after it was revealed that Shohei Ohtani, the Los Angeles Angels' two-way superstar and arguably the best player in baseball history, had torn his ulnar collateral ligament and would not pitch again in 2023.
Ohtani will become a free agent at age 29. That's two years younger than Aaron Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360 million contract with the New York Yankees last winter, and was also offered a contract in excess of $400 million by the San Diego Padres.
How will the UCL injury impact Shohei Ohtani's free agency?
Even if Ohtani undergoes Tommy John surgery and doesn't pitch in 2024, he's the most valuable player in baseball. He leads the league in 16 statistical offensive categories. He has 44 home runs and was hitting a homer in every 10.65 at-bats. He leads baseball with an 8.6 fWAR (6.3 as a hitter; 2.3 as a pitcher), which is almost two higher than the second-ranked Mookie Betts (6.7 fWAR).
Ohtani has produced numbers better than both Judge and Betts, and has done so while pitching at a high level. The uncertainty surrounding his latest elbow injury — how bad is the tear? Will he undergo surgery? Will he try platelet-rich plasma again? — will unquestionably impact his free agency and cause teams to ask questions and closely look at his medicals.
Should he undergo a Tommy John surgery, the odds of returning from a second procedure are not great. Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon both went on to sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Drew Rasmussen turned into an upper-level pitcher but underwent Tommy John for a third time. Cole Ragans, a 25-year-old pitcher, has been very good for the Kansas City Royals in limited action.
But doubt Ohtani at your own risk. In 2019, Ohtani returned as a full-time designated hitter only seven months after UCL reconstruction. He played in Game 2 of a doubleheader on Wednesday knowing that he had torn his UCL only hours earlier. He could return to the mound in 2025 and pitch the first half of a long-term contract as a starting pitcher. He then could finish the second half of the contract as a closer or high-leverage reliever. All while being Shohei Ohtani at the plate.
Then there's the off-the-field element, and it makes Ohtani more valuable than any player in baseball. The team that signs Ohtani will sell out season tickets in a matter of hours. There will be endless marketing and corporate opportunities. TV ratings and merchandise sales will soar.
The on and off-the-field possibilities make Ohtani the most intriguing free agent in baseball history. There will be a long list of suitors, headlined by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and despite the injury, the contract he signs will surely be nine figures and start with a 5.
