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Hornets projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season

2023-08-29 05:55
With LaMelo Ball healthy and No. 2 pick Brandon Miller in tow, here's what the Charlotte Hornets' lineup and rotation should look like in 2023-24.
Hornets projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season

The Charlotte Hornets continue to stumble blindly around the NBA basement without much sense of purpose or direction. Michael Jordan sold the team over the summer. That's probably good, but it only furthers the instability plaguing the franchise.

Before Jordan signed off on the sale, the Hornets selected Alabama wing Brandon Miller with the No. 2 overall pick in June's NBA Draft. There were mixed opinions on Miller as a prospect — he was No. 7 on the FanSided big board — but plenty of smart folks pegged him as Charlotte's best option.

There is natural excitement for any team adding the second pick, especially in such a loaded draft class. Miller was a historically productive freshman for one of college basketball's best teams. Now, he will join former No. 3 pick LaMelo Ball as the Hornets try to build some level of upward momentum.

On paper, the roster has plenty of talent. All-Star forward Miles Bridges is back in the mix after disturbing domestic violence charges kept him away last season. The team recently re-signed P.J. Washington. Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are both seasoned vets. The player pool is deep enough to make legitimate progress. It's up to Steve Clifford to put the pieces together.

It's also up to the basketball gods. LaMelo was held to 36 games last season because of injury. He's the lifeblood of Charlotte's organization and the one proven star on the roster. He's still 22 years old too, fully on the upswing. If he's simply on the court, that charges the feel around the team completely.

That said, here is how the rotation will probably shape up.

Charlotte Hornets starting point guard: LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball has been a victim of circumstance across three NBA seasons. He is getting wildly disrespected in the broader national conversation because the Hornets are bad and he hasn't been placed in an ecosystem conducive to winning basketball. Ball is not without flaws, but he's one of the most creative passers in the league, a prolific 3-point threat, and a consistently improving all-around scorer.

The Hornets should have absolute, unwavering confidence in Ball as the franchise centerpiece. He's the exact player a young team should want to build around. He's all pace and tempo, run-run-running in transition. His best attribute is the ability to lift up teammates. Ball processes the game at rapid-fire speeds and can make every pass in the book. His sheer ingenuity with the ball generates a lot of clean looks for teammates at every level.

At 6-foot-7, Ball has great positional size. He doesn't always make the most out of the size, but it gives him a foundation to build on physically. It's easy to forget, again, that Ball is 22 years old. He's not a great defender yet, but the size and instincts should translate eventually. He's not a great finisher yet, but he has nutty touch, broad shoulders, and a stretchy 6-foot-9 wingspan. He should eventually get better around the rim.

Ball is a real headache for opposing defenses. He keeps the ball popping and isn't predisposed to dribble into oblivion like some young guards. His 3-point range stretches several feet behind the 3-point line. His floater is butter. If the rim finishing ever comes around, LaMelo is going to be a top-10 offensive engine — plain and simple.

Primary backup point guard: Terry Rozier

Terry Rozier will be the nominal backup point guard whether he starts next to LaMelo Ball or not. Charlotte can stagger ball-handlers to keep one on the floor at all times. That said, whether or not Rozier will — or should — start is one of the more compelling questions facing the team.

Rozier has three years and roughly $73 million left on his contract. He averaged 21.1 points and 5.1 assists on .415/.327/.809 in 35.3 minutes last season. Rozier is a born shot-maker and his 3-point volume is important to Charlotte's offense. The incoming Brandon Miller is a good shooter too, however, and Rozier's defensive limitations could be marginalized with a move to sixth man.

It wouldn't be Rozier's first rodeo as a bench spark plug. He once thrived in that very role for a more competitive Celtics team. Rozier has proven that he can lead the offense and be more than a shot-chucker, but by that same token, he's still a largely inefficient scorer inside the arc who is prone to questionable shot selection.

Charlotte has more wing depth than normal and it's not hard to imagine a world in which Rozier is a full-time reserve.

Other players who could receive minutes at point guard: Theo Maledon, Brandon Miller

Charlotte Hornets starting shooting guard: Brandon Miller

Brandon Miller is expected to step into a sizable role straight away. There will be competition in training camp and Steve Clifford isn't a coach to coddle rookies, but he was the No. 2 pick. That's a major investment and a vote of confidence from the organization. The expectation is that Miller will contribute right away.

And, contribute he shall. Miller probably wasn't the right pick — a matter we've discussed at length here at FanSided — but he's far from the James Wiseman or Marvin Bagley tier of wrong second-overall pick. Miller was college basketball's most prolific wing scorer on one of college basketball's best teams. He's older than the average freshman (a few months shy of his 21st birthday), but that doesn't diminish how impressive his brief stint at Alabama was.

Miller won the affection of Charlotte's front office and a broad chunk of the NBA Draft community with his 3-and-D tendencies. He's 6-foot-9 with the potential to guard several positions effectively. On offense, Miller is a deadly shooter. He drilled 38.4 percent of his 7.5 attempts per game from 3-point range with the Crimson Tide. That alone is a huge boost for a Charlotte offense that struggled to reliably hit from long-range last season.

Where Miller separated himself as a lottery pick, however, was his upside as a secondary playmaker. He needs to bulk up and learn to better handle contact, but Miller makes some eye-popping passes on the move. He's comfortable running pick-and-rolls and his pull-up jumper came on strong as the season progressed. There are concerns about his finishing at the rim and he will face some early NBA growing pains, as most rookies do, but he should settle into a productive role next to LaMelo in the Charlotte backcourt.

Primary backup shooting guard: Terry Rozier

Even in the sixth-man role, expect Rozier to spend 25-30 minutes on the floor every night. He has tenure over most of Charlotte's roster and his shot-making is a huge boost late in games. Rozier will spend a lot of time next to LaMelo as well as behind him. Miller can slide down to the three or the four in smaller lineups, while Charlotte's other frontcourt pieces are malleable too.

Other players who could receive minutes at shooting guard: Nick Smith Jr., Gordon Hayward, Cody Martin, Bryce McGowens

Nick Smith Jr. was the No. 8 prospect on the FanSided big board, but he fell all the way to Charlotte at No. 27 in June. That stroke of luck should pay dividends sooner than later. Smith battled injuries and inconsistency as Arkansas and he looked unpolished at times in Summer League, but the natural touch and scoring instincts should make him pop for the Charlotte coaching staff. He's the natural heir to Terry Rozier's role as the Hornets plan out the next phase of the franchise.

Unlike Rozier, however, Smith also offers considerable upside on the defensive end. He's 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan and a real knack for causing mischief in passing lanes. Strength is a matter of concern, but Smith should develop into a quality two-way guard as his frame develops.

Charlotte Hornets starting small forward: Gordon Hayward

Gordon Hayward now enters the final year of his infamous four-year, $120 million contract. The Hayward experience in Charlotte has been mostly negative, plagued with a constant stream of injuries, setbacks, and disappointments. What was once intended to be a marquee signing for the franchise has turned into a festering regret.

Even so, Hayward continues to play rock-solid basketball when he's actually on the court. The 33-year-old hasn't played more than 50 games in a single season since arriving in Charlotte, but his numbers are respectable. He averaged 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on .475/.325/.811 splits in 31.5 minutes last season. The Hornets still view him as a key contributor.

There's a strong case to move Hayward to the second unit instead of Rozier, and age is a big factor there. That said, the Hornets should take this opportunity to boost Hayward's trade value with a big early-season role. Hayward is still a better defender than Rozier due to his positional size and versatility, plus last season's low three-point mark is likely an aberration, not the new norm.

Hayward is a steady hand who can supply the Hornets with reliable floor-spacing and secondary playmaking in the frontcourt. There is definite overlap between what the Hornets hope Miller will be and what Hayward provides, and Rozier is probably a more useful closer, but Hayward's general well-roundedness makes him a bankable starter — even now.

Primary backup small forward: Cody Martin

The Hornets kept Caleb Martin, but let his twin brother, Caleb, walk to the Miami Heat a couple summers ago. Safe to say the Hornets regret that one. While Cody has struggled with inconsistency and a knee injury that decimated his 2022-23 campaign, Caleb was one vote shy of winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP for the Heat. Oh well.

Cody appeared in only seven games last season with shoddy numbers. He was far more involved in the 2021-22 season — 7.7 points and 4.0 rebounds on .482/.384/.701 splits in 26.3 minutes — which is the level Charlotte hopes he will return to. Martin was once considered the "better" twin, more than capable of his own 3-and-D contributions with the second unit.

He's a rangy 6-foot-6 defender and a solid spot-up shooter when he's right. That's all the Hornets will ask of him. Miller's arrival leaves Charlotte with some congestion on the wing, but Martin is a player to watch when he's healthy.

Other players who could receive minutes at small forward: Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, Bryce McGowens

Charlotte Hornets starting power forward: Miles Bridges

Miles Bridges is suspended for the first 10 games of the regular season as punishment for his involvement in a domestic violence case. That's a sorry excuse for a "punishment" and the Hornets shouldn't feel great about welcoming Bridges back with open arms, but here we are. Such is the nature of the NBA business mechanism when a player can impact winning on the court.

The last time we saw Bridges, he was an emergent All-Star and Charlotte's second franchise pillar next to LaMelo. Over the summer, the two sides failed to agree to terms on a long-term extension and Bridges accepted the one-year qualifying offer worth $7.9 million. That is an unavoidable factor as Steve Clifford determines the rotation, not to mention the rust from a year away from the game.

Charlotte is prepared to overlook the off-court concerns, however, which means production will win out here. Bridges averaged 20.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on .491/.331/.802 splits in the 2021-22 season. Once he's back from his suspension and fully up to speed, Bridges' aggressive slashing and above-the-rim finishing — not to mention his effortless synergy with LaMelo — will probably earn him the starting gig.

Bridges will provide essential rim pressure for a Charlotte team reliant on playmakers like Ball, Miller, and Hayward who can struggle to finish in the painted area. Bridges would benefit from a more efficient 3-point stroke, but he's a good enough shooter to draw the defense out. From there, he's too explosive downhill for most traditional fours. Rolling out of screens or running out in transition, Bridges is a favorite target for LaMelo, who is maybe the best lob tosser in the sport. Bridges can climb the proverbial ladder for dunks easier than 99 percent of the league.

Primary backup power forward: P.J. Washington

The Hornets finally agreed to terms with P.J. Washington on a three-year, $48 million contract. With Bridges' future in doubt, it's smart for the front office to hitch its wagon to Washington. He's a capable starter in his own right and there's a strong argument to give him the nod over Bridges. Either way, expect Washington to be a regular in the Hornets' frontcourt.

Last season was the most productive of Washington's career. He started all 73 appearances for Charlotte, averaging 15.7 points and 4.9 rebounds on .444/.348/.730 splits in 32.6 minutes. Washington would benefit from a more refined shot profile and a more consistent 3-point stroke, but he's a burgeoning mid-range artist with the strength to bully smaller defenders in the post and the speed to torch slower bigs on the perimeter.

Where Washington's primary value lies, however, is the defensive end. He's a highly versatile weapon at 6-foot-7, often deployed as a small-ball center. He's probably not a true five-position defender, but he's damn close with a physicality and edge that Steve Clifford can appreciate. Bridges isn't on Washington's level defensively and the Hornets will face matchups where Washington's two-way prowess is essential.

Other players who could receive minutes at power forward: Gordon Hayward, Brandon Miller, Kai Jones, JT Thor

Charlotte Hornets starting center: Mark Williams

Mark Williams locked up the Hornets' starting center spot as a rookie. The Duke product averaged 9.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks on 63.7 percent shooting in 19.3 minutes. He didn't take over the starting gig until late in the season, but it's clear Williams is Charlotte's center of the future — unless a splashier name comes along.

LaMelo's injury meant we saw very little of Charlotte's star point guard next to Williams, but the fit is obvious. Williams boasts a massive frame, all of 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-7 wingspan, and he's a dexterous finisher at the rim. The Hornets have long been searching for a true pick-and-roll partner for Ball and, well, there he is. Williams doesn't miss inside five feet and he can get above the rim for lobs.

Williams also caries great appeal on the defensive end. That wingspan is very meddlesome for prospective finishers in the paint. Williams operates exclusively in drop coverage, but he's capable of absorbing physical matchups in the post and he completely changes the geometry of Charlotte's defense compared to other options on the roster. He's a disciplined defender for his age (still 21 years old) and he ends a lot of possessions with his box-outs and work on the glass.

Charlotte will still give test drives to the other young centers on the roster, but Williams has separated himself from the pack by a comfortable margin. The former No. 15 pick is easily one of the roster's most underrated and important fixtures, now and long term.

Primary backup center: Nick Richards

Nick Richards has developed into a reliable rotation piece for the Hornets, making his own case in 18.4 minutes per game last season. The Hornets will explore small-ball options centered on Washington at the five, but Richards' bouncy finishing and prolific shot-blocking earn him a regular role.

The Kentucky product averaged 8.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks on 62.9 percent shooting. Those numbers aren't far removed from Williams on the surface. Richards isn't much slimmer either — 7-foot and 245 pounds with a 7-foot-4 wingspan — so expect the Hornets to lean into their drop coverage scheme and the upside of two quality rim-runners next to LaMelo.

Other players who could receive minutes at center: P.J. Washington, Kai Jones, JT Thor