The Miami Heat finished three wins shy of an improbable NBA championship. Now, Erik Spoelstra will look to rekindle the magic in 2023-24.
The vibes around the Miami Heat were generally pretty bad last season. The team performed far below expectations in the regular season, plagued by wildly inconsistent 3-point shooting and a stark lack of game-to-game intensity.
Once the playoffs rolled around, the Heat were barely clinging to the No. 8 seed. The Bulls almost won the final play-in game and the No. 1 seed Bucks were expected to swiftly dispose of their old foes.
Well, not so fast. The Bucks stumbled into injury misfortune and Miami won the 3-point variance battle, then the series. Then Miami beat the Knicks in round two. Then Miami went up 3-0 on the Celtics in the conference finals, and ultimately won that series too.
The Heat's improbable run ended with a gentleman's sweep loss to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals. A disappointing end for any team, but a remarkable accomplishment for Miami given where the regular season ended. Jimmy Butler deserves credit, but it was a true collective effort. If anything, it served as a strong reminder of Erik Spoelstra's brilliance in the head coach's chair.
Miami will now enter the 2023-24 season with higher expectations than your typical 44-win team. Here's what Coach Spo is working with rotationally.
Miami Heat starting point guard: Kyle Lowry
The Heat moved Kyle Lowry to the bench late last season, but the 37-year-old has the inside track for the starting job barring a sizable roster change. Damian Lillard looms over this entire exercise, but Lowry is the only natural point guard on the roster following Gabe Vincent's departure in free agency.
Lowry's advanced age and sharp decline should worry the fanbase. Erik Speolstra has the ability to get creative if Lowry isn't up to snuff. Jimmy Butler is comfortable as the lead ball-handler. Josh Richardson started in Miami before his departure as part of the Butler trade in 2019. He could join Tyler Herro in the backcourt and push Lowry to the bench.
For now, however, the best bet is Lowry. He's still quite effective as a table-setter and 3-point bomber who operates with endless levels of cleverness. What Lowry lacks in lateral quickness and prime athleticism, he makes up for with defensive intelligence and a singular knack for frustrating the opposition with well-timed thespian performances.
Lowry will need to boost his 3-point numbers from last season (34.5 percent) but he's a tried and true threat who will demand attention on the perimeter. He's comfortable operating without the ball while Butler playmakes and he's the kind of ultra-savvy vet who Spoelstra tends to get the most out of.
Primary backup point guard: Josh Richardson
Josh Richardson is very much not a point guard, but he has been thrusted into this role with multiple franchises before. He can bring the ball up and initiate simple actions, just don't expect wizardry with his passing or a high volume of competent self-creation. Richardson is best when situated off the ball and asked to focus on spot-up 3s and finishes at the rim.
That said, Richardson is still a very good on-ball defender who is probably Miami's best regular season answer to elite ball-handlers. Butler could take over that label in the playoffs but he isn't giving 100 percent defensive effort until the games really start to count.
Other players who could receive minutes at point guard: Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler
Miami Heat starting shooting guard: Tyler Herro
Tyler Herro has been a lightning rod for discourse because of the Damian Lillard news. As the centerpiece of any feasible Lillard trade, a lot has been said about Herro's shortcomings and why the Blazers shouldn't be interested. And yes, when he's held up to the bright light of Damian Lillard, Herro wilts and fades.
That shouldn't really inform the discourse around him as a player overall, of course. It's possible to be a mid-tier or above-average starter without inviting constant criticism. Herro is a very talented offensive player and a staple of Miami's halfcourt attack. The Heat managed a Finals run without Herro, but one has to imagine Spoelstra would've jumped at the opportunity to bring Herro back into the fold if it was possible.
The Kentucky product averaged 20.1 points and 4.2 assists on 56.6 TS% last season. It was his first season in the starting five and he acclimated well. Miami is desperately short on reliable 3-point shooters; Herro is a genuinely elite volume shooter who can get to his shot in myriad different ways. His comfort on or off the ball makes him a crucial weapon in Spoelstra's offensive arsenal.
Of course Miami would trade Herro for Lillard in a heartbeat. And sure, his four-year, $120 million contract is a lot to stomach. But the Heat are undoubtedly thrilled to have Herro in the organization and he will continue to play a prominent role for however long he's with the team, be it one more week or the next four years. The defense is a continual roadblock, but Herro is too impactful offensively to be disrespected.
Primary backup shooting guard: Duncan Robinson
To state it plainly, Duncan Robinson's 2022-23 regular season was a disaster. He shot 32.8 percent from deep and 37.7 percent from the field. For a player who derives almost all of his value from his jumper, that simply won't cut it. Robinson is already a severe defensive liability who can get played off the floor in key matchups. If the 3s aren't falling, he's a stark negative.
Of course, he experienced the same cosmic boost that everyone on the Heat roster did in the playoffs. All of a sudden, Robinson was a productive crunch-time presence for the Eastern Conference champs. He was back to his old ways and then some, carving up defenses with his off-ball movement and burying a steady dose of 3s.
If that Robinson can return for the regular season, he's going to see plenty of minutes. He used to start over Herro at shooting guard, lest we forget. But, if Robinson comes back in regular season form, he could lose his spot to more well-rounded options.
Other players who could receive minutes at shooting guard: Josh Richardson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Josh Richardson should get a steady dose of minutes. He was considered a foundational piece of Miami's future not all that long ago. He has regressed in the years since, but Erik Spoelstra is a practitioner of basketball voodoo and he, if nobody else, is capable of getting the most out of Richardson's specific skill set.
The Heat will want Richardson to focus primarily on spot-up 3s and defense. He's a dogged on-ball defender who can really muck up passing lanes with his length. At his peak, Richardson was one of the best guard defenders in the entire NBA. His utility in Miami will depend on his consistency from 3-point range and the reliability of his offensive decision-making.
Miami Heat starting small forward: Jimmy Butler
Man, myth, legend. Jimmy Butler is the NBA's biggest cornball and one of its best players. When he's not scamming fans with overpriced coffee, he's breaking up plays with his frenetic defensive energy and stabilizing the Miami offense with his trademark in-between game.
Butler operates with absolute patience. He doesn't rush into shots — sometimes to his detriment. He won't force 3s, he won't get sped up by pressurized defense. He lets the game come to him, slicing apart defenders with meticulous footwork and subtly deceptive handles. His low 3-point volume is a mild detraction, but Butler can eviscerate teams with his mid-range pull-up and he's a tremendous finisher at the rim.
Even as he ages past his prime, Butler has plenty of burst attacking downhill and using his strength to absorb contact at the rim. He is blessed with moves and countermoves galore to tackle whatever the defense throws at him. Butler draws more fouls than 99 percent of the league and when he doesn't score, he can leverage his gravity to create for teammates.
Butler averaged 22.9 points and 5.3 assists on 64.7 TS% last season. He's the small forward for labeling purposes, but Butler will operate as Miami's primary ball-handler and he will probably lead the team in assists — especially if Lowry's minutes continue to decline. He doesn't always go full speed in the regular season, but Butler is truly elite on both ends when he decides to crank the ignition.
Primary backup small forward: Haywood Highsmith
Haywood Highsmith's development from afterthought in Philadelphia to a Finals rotation piece in Miami has been one of the best under-the-radar NBA storylines. Highsmith now enters the final year of a cheap second contact with the opportunity to earn a big payday next summer. He should play a critical role in Spoelstra's second unit as a lanky wing defender with enough 3-point shooting to keep defenses honest.
Other players who could receive minutes at small forward: Caleb Martin, Josh Richardson, Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.
The Heat used the No. 18 pick on UCLA's Jaime Jaquez Jr., a controversial pick in some draft circles and a widely celebrated pick in others. Jaquez spent four productive years with the Bruins and will enter the NBA as a 22-year-old. The Heat presumably selected Jaquez with hopes that he can contribute from day one.
At 6-foot-7, Jaquez brings size and serious shot-making talent to the wing. He drew some Jimmy Butler comparisons pre-draft and even embraced them in interviews; he doesn't love to shoot 3s but he's a mid-range savant who carves out space with delicate footwork and a pristine high release.
The doubts with Jaquez are tied to his limited athleticism and advanced age. He doesn't have the same growth potential as younger prospects and he's a stiff lateral mover, which could lead to difficultly finding his NBA position on defense. The Heat are probably the best possible landing spot for a player with his skill set, though.
Miami Heat starting power forward: Caleb Martin
Caleb Martin will forever go down in history as the man who finished one vote shy of winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP in 2023. What an improbable and impressive postseason run it was for Martin, who elevated his status from solid role player for foundational member of Miami's rotation.
It's to the point where the Heat are haggling over Martin's inclusion in potential Damian Lillard trade packages, which would have been unthinkable sixth months ago. Martin began the playoffs coming off the bench behind Kevin Love, but one has to imagine he's the full-time starter when the new season begins.
Martin's regular season stats were perfectly fine: 9.6 points and 4.8 rebounds on .464/.356/.805 splits. The storyline of his season was pretty simple: he's a good role player who can defend a couple positions and hit league-average numbers from beyond the arc. In the conference finals, he averaged 19.3 points and 6.4 rebounds on .602/.489/.875 splits. Absolute insanity, even by the best seven-game stretch standards.
One has to imagine Martin's numbers will dip back to reality in the new season, but his minutes per game will skyrocket and he will probably get more leeway in Spoelstra's offense. Martin is still far from a No. 1 star, but he showed potential attacking closeouts and getting into his pull-up jumper in the playoffs. The more dynamism in Miami's offense, the better.
Primary backup power forward: Kevin Love
The Heat re-signed Kevin Love at the veteran minimum for another run at glory. Love's first half-season with Miami went about as well as it could've. He spent the majority of his time in the starting lineup and the Heat went all the way to the Finals. Love will chase ring No. 2 in the new year.
Love is 34 years old and he's on a sharp decline. The monstrous offensive star of old is no more. Still, he's a strong-bodied forward who can bomb 3s, set screens, and make quick decisions as a passer. He one of the best rebounders of his generation and he's not the complete defensive sieve one might expect at this stage of his career. Love may need to see his minutes reduced compared to last season, but he still figures to crack the lineup.
Other players who could receive minutes at power forward: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Nikola Jovic
Miami Heat starting center: Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo made a real push for the label of 'Best Heat Player' last season. Jimmy ultimately won out down the stretch, but Heat fans shouldn't really care — both are on the roster. Adebayo continues to progresses on the margins offensively while cementing his status as arguably the best defender in the NBA.
The Heat were the No. 8 seed last season, which pretty much excluded Adebayo from the DPOY race. That looks silly in hindsight with the run Miami made in the playoffs. Adebayo is the perfect modern defender, capable of switching one through five while still providing rim protection and a physical presence in the paint.
A lot of players get labeled as "five-position" defenders, typically far more than are actually capable of it. Adebayo is matchup-proof. He can mirror twitchy guards on the perimeter, battle physical wings off the dribble, or wage war with the likes of Joel Embiid in the post. He's equally dominant away from the ball, constantly blowing up plays with well-timed help and wreaking havoc in passing lanes (1.2 steals per game).
On the offensive end, Adebayo is quickly becoming a central figure for Miami. He is slowly but surely expanding the range of his jumper, to the point where mid-range pull-ups are now a regular part of his shot diet. Adebayo can score with spin moves and deft post maneuvers in the paint, or he can face up from the elbow and weaponize his physicality attacking downhill. Adebayo is also a plus passer for his position.
There simply aren't many players who check so many boxes across the board. Adebayo is much closer to a bonafide top-20 NBA player than folks realize.
Primary backup center: Thomas Bryant
Thomas Bryant is a legitimately impactful offensive center. He shot 44.1 percent from 3-point range last season and finished 65.8 percent of his 2-point attempts, most of which came in the paint. He's comfortably setting screens and operating as a vertical threat at the rim, but he can also stretch the floor and make opposing centers guard in space.
The hangup with Bryant is his defense. His offensive fluidity and athleticism doesn't really translate: he gets burned in space and struggles to keep up with the constantly shifting nature of NBA schemes. The Heat will lean on Bryant as an offensive weapon in the regular season but it wouldn't be shocking to see his minutes wane once the playoffs arrive.
Other players who could receive minutes at center: Orlando Robinson, Nikola Jovic
Orlando Robinson was the standout of Miami Heat Summer League. He's a physical athlete with a strong 7-foot frame and enough experience in the Heat system to potentially carve out a role next season, especially if Spo falls out of love with the aforementioned Bryant's defense.
Nikola Jovic is another candidate to see minutes at the four or five depending on lineup needs for Miami. The second-year Serbian was mostly a G-League staple last season but he's a mobile, fluid 6-foot-10 athlete with shooting touch. He's a very modern big on paper and the Heat have every reason to invest in his development.
