NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jul 20, 2023--

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Extreme heatwaves contributed to more than 60,000 deaths in Europe in 2022 – a number much bigger than previous estimates have shown, according to a new report. The study, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published in the journal Nature Medicine, estimated that a staggering 61,672 deaths were caused by extreme heat in Europe between 30 May and 4 September 2022. Europe experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022, marked by an onslaught of scorching heatwaves, devastating droughts and raging forest fires, driven by human-induced climate crisis. While it was known that the excessive heat had led to a significant increase in mortality rates, the exact number of deaths directly attributable to the heat had remained unquantified. In an earlier report, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), an agency of the United Nations, estimated the number of deaths in Europe to be at 15,700 due to 2022 heatwaves. The numbers from the ISGlobal report now estimate it to be four times what WMO found. “This work adds to the existing evidence on heat-related mortality by providing updated data and analysis for the summer of 2022 in Europe,” Dr Raquel Nunes, assistant professor in environmental change and public health, Warwick Medical School, said about the report. “The findings of the current study, with over 61,000 estimated heat-related deaths, further support the evidence that heatwaves have a significant impact on mortality rates.” To arrive at these alarming figures, the research team gathered temperature and mortality data from 2015 to 2022 for 823 regions across 35 European countries, representing a total population of more than 543 million people. These datasets were then used to develop epidemiological models to predict temperature-attributable mortality for each region and week during the summer period. Temperature records indicated that every week throughout the summer period, Europeans experienced above-average temperatures, the report said. The most extreme temperature anomalies occurred during the peak of the summer, from mid-July to mid-August. Researchers say that this repeated occurrence of heatwaves significantly increased heat-related mortality, resulting in 38,881 deaths between 11 July and 14 August. Within this period (slightly over one month), a severe pan-European heatwave occurred from 18 to 24 July, accounting for 11,637 deaths. When examining the impact on individual countries, Italy reported the highest number of heat-attributable deaths during the entire summer of 2022, with a total of 18,010 fatalities. Spain followed closely behind with 11,324 deaths, while Germany recorded 8,173 deaths. Analysing the mortality rates attributable to heat, Italy again topped the list with 295 deaths per million, followed by Greece (280), Spain (237) and Portugal (211). The European average was estimated at 114 deaths per million. In terms of temperature anomalies, France experienced the highest deviation from the average values for the period 1991-2020, with temperatures reaching an astonishing 2.43C higher. Switzerland followed closely with 2.30C higher, while Italy, Hungary and Spain recorded an increase of 2.28C, 2.13C and 2.11C respectively. The study also revealed stark differences in heat-related mortality based on age and gender. It found that more women died of heatwaves than men, with mortality among women standing at a 63 per cent higher rate compared to men. The study estimated 35,406 premature deaths among women, standing at 145 deaths per million, and 21,667 deaths among men, at 93 deaths per million. “It [the study] demonstrates that heat prevention strategies need to be re-evaluated, with gender and age especially in mind,” said Dr Chloe Brimicombe, climate scientist and extreme heat researcher at the Centre for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz. “This research could be taken further, assessing the social vulnerability of citizens across Europe in the future because heat doesn’t impact people equitably. We need climate mitigation to help stop the impact of heat becoming worse in the future.” Mortality rates were also markedly higher among older age groups, with 4,822 deaths occurring among individuals under 65, 9,226 deaths among those aged 65 to 79, and a staggering 36,848 deaths among individuals over 79. Ms Nunes said older people are more vulnerable to extreme heat for several reasons. “As people age, their bodies become less efficient at regulating temperature and adapting to heat stress,” she explained. “This makes it harder for older individuals to cool down and maintain a stable body temperature during periods of high heat.” In addition, older people are also more likely to have existing illnesses. Ms Nunes added that “certain medications commonly taken by older adults, such as diuretics or beta-blockers, can interfere with the body’s ability to cool down”. “Additionally, social factors such as living alone, limited mobility and inadequate access to cooling systems can contribute to the increased vulnerability of older individuals to heat-related health risks.” While temperatures witnessed in the summer of 2022 were not unprecedented, the increased frequency and intensity of heating over the past decade, as average global temperatures reach 1.2C, makes the situation all the more urgent. Europe, already experiencing 1C more warming than the global average, faces a grim future if effective adaptive responses are not implemented, the report warns. Without such measures, the study projects that by 2030 the continent will witness more than 68,000 premature deaths each summer, a number that will surge to more than 94,000 by 2040. Despite many countries having active prevention plans in place, the fact that more than 61,600 people died due to heat stress in 2022 suggests that current adaptation strategies may be insufficient. “The high number of heat-related deaths during the summer of 2022 in Europe highlights the urgent need for action to protect vulnerable populations from the impacts of heatwaves,” says Ms Nunes. “National governments, relevant agencies and other bodies need to be called upon to increase the effectiveness of heat prevention and adaptation plans.” Read More Earth sets its hottest day record for third time in a week Will the UK see a 40C heatwave again this summer? 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Virgil Van Dijk has weighed into the debate over Trent Alexander-Arnold’s best position by proclaiming his Liverpool team-mate as the complete package. Alexander-Arnold delivered another reminder of his attacking talents as he got forward to strike a fine equaliser for the Reds in Saturday’s 1-1 draw at champions Manchester City. The 25-year-old right-back had spent a lot of a tight Premier League encounter in defensive mode, trying to contain City’s tricky Belgium winger Jeremy Doku. It was a sweet moment for Alexander-Arnold after plenty of debate over the past fortnight over whether or how he can fit into the England team. Van Dijk, the Liverpool captain, said: “I think everyone this season, as a defender, one v one against Doku will have a tough afternoon. He’s a very good dribbler. “But I don’t think he had a tough afternoon on the whole. It’s how you defend them together and try to get two v one in situations and, in the end, I’m pleased for him that he got the equaliser. “He offers a lot defensively and, obviously in possession, he has qualities that are very special and he shows that as well, so he has the complete package. “He has to keep doing what he’s doing, keep improving, keep that high standard he has for himself and we all have for him as well.” Alexander-Arnold has expanded his game over the past year, not only playing as a conventional attacking full-back but also in a hybrid defence-central midfield role. His recent England outings against Malta and North Macedonia were also in midfield and Van Dijk admits he does not know where he will ultimately end up. “I don’t know, that’s for the coaches that work with him,” said the centre-back. “I think for the moment he’s playing just fine where he is right now. “He has that freedom to mix it up and he has to do that because you see teams are working it out at times, so he has to be able to switch from staying on the outside and going on the inside as well. “I think it’s a good learning curve for him as well and (on Saturday) he did that well because obviously he was playing against one of the most in-form wingers at the moment.” Saturday’s result kept Liverpool within a point of title favourites City and, after the frustration of failing to challenge last season, Van Dijk hopes the 2020 champions can push them much closer this time. The Dutchman said: “It’s no secret we want to challenge for everything we are competing in and this year we are looking consistent, something we were missing last year. “But we are in November with a difficult period coming up, difficult games ahead of us. Anything can happen but hopefully, if we don’t get many injuries or no injuries, we have to confident and give it everything.” Read More Man City boss Pep Guardiola taking safety-first approach with John Stones Jacksonville Jaguars hold off Houston Texans to remain in charge of AFC South All-conquering Jannik Sinner inspires Italy to Davis Cup glory Beth Mead scores first goal in over a year as WSL top three maintain momentum Alejandro Garnacho has the potential to do some amazing things – Erik ten Hag Players and fans evacuated from York Barbican as fire disrupts UK Championship

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