PERTH, Australia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug 28, 2023--

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Russia appears to have stepped back from the brink of a full-scale armed mutiny, after the Wagner Group, one of the world’s most powerful private armies, halted a march on Moscow started by a vow for revenge. While the immediate threat seems to have been averted, the unprecedented attack on the Russian military establishment marks the most serious challenge to President Vladimir Putin in the 23 years he has ruled with an iron fist – and the crisis is unlikely to just disappear just because the military convoy halted 125 miles from the Russian capital. Earlier in an extraordinary day, a visibly angry Mr Putin made an emergency address to the nation railing against the attempted coup and said the very existence of the Russian state was at stake. "We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence,” he said, comparing the Wagner “mutiny” to the 1917 revolution that led to the collapse of imperial Russia. The source of his ire was Yevgeny Prigozhin, the outspoken leader of the Wagner mercenary group, who had vowed to avenge attacks he claimed were perpetrated by the Russian military against his men in eastern Ukraine. Mr Prigozhin vehemently denied accusations of treason and spent the day vowing to fight “until the end.” However, late on Saturday his band of mercenaries halted their march and would turn back “to avoid shedding Russian blood” – in a deal broken by Belarusian president and Russia’s closest ally Alexander Lukashenko. “In a day, we marched to nearly 200km outside of Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters,” Mr Prigozhin said in audio messages shared to his Telegram channels. “Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility of spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan.” It was unclear on Saturday night exactly what the agreement to halt the Wagner convoy entailed, but the Kremlin confirmed that neither Mr Prigozhin nor his troops would face criminal charges over the insurrection. The Kremlin did not confirm Mr Prigozhin’s whereabouts but said he would be moved to Belarus, a close ally of Russia. In a day of dramatic developments: Moscow’s mayor urged all residents to stay in their homes Authorities declared a “counter-terrorist regime” in the capital – enhancing security and restricting some movement. Crews dug up sections of highways to slow the movement of the Wagner convoy There was confusion over Mr Putin’s whereabouts, with the Kremlin denying he had left the city in a plane There were also unconfirmed reports that a number of Russian officials had left the capital, with suggestions that Denis Manturov, a deputy prime minister may have flown to Turkey. The crisis ignited Friday night when Mr Prigozhin, a former hotdog seller turned powerful warlord, issued a string of expletive-riddled audio and video messages. He accused the top Russian military brass of bombing his camp in the eastern region of Donbas, “lying” about the motivations for invading Ukraine, and rampant corruption. As tensions mounted, Mr Putin responded by saying his former confidante was guilty of “armed insurrection” and “treason” and promised to punish those behind the “stab in the back”. Wagner forces – deployed along some of the toughest battle lines in Ukraine – crossed back into Russia, captured the logistical hub of Rostov in the south, and then set off on a 1000km race to the capital. Videos shared on their channels purportedly showed a column of tanks mounted on armoured cars and advanced Pantsir anti-aircraft missile system making its way north accompanied by as many as 5000 men, or a fifth of Wagner’s claimed total forces. Desperate to halt an advance, Russia's military fired on the column with helicopters, deployed tanks and even tore up key motorways with diggers according to videos posted online. "We will destroy anyone who stands in our way," Mr Prigozhin originally vowed. "We are moving forward and will go until the end," he added. The spectacular eruption of violence in Russia, came after searing tensions within the country’s top command since President Putin invaded Ukraine last February. Prigozhin, once a shadowy figure who denied his role with private military companies, has fast become the most outspoken and powerful figure in Putin’s war. His forces – which first appeared in Russia’s initial invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014 – were stationed in some of the bloodiest battlefields like Bakhmut. There he would frequently post videos criticising the Ministry of Defence and top Russian generals for poor battle plans or not providing enough ammunition. This claim, his former troops say, was a ruse to allow him to stockpile weapons he ultimately used in Russia on Saturday. Speaking exclusively to The Independent, a former Wagner soldier, who was stationed near Bakhmut in November but managed to escape to Europe with the help of dissidents, said Mr Prigozhin was a “skilful manipulator”. The soldier said he had gained so much power due to the war in Ukraine. “Everyone should understand and realise that the regular army and those who serve in Wagner now are under the rule imposed by Prigozhin.” He said that Mr Prigozhin ruled by fear “in a dictatorial regime” and so people remain loyal to survive. “They are frightened reprisal if they speak out or fail to follow orders,” he said, asking to remain anonymous for his own security. He added that Mr Prigozhin’s “hysterical” statements and actions “were aimed at garnering support and creating the image of a strong leader.” “Even to this day, some people continue to view him favourably,” he added. In Ukraine, commanders, officials and foot soldiers watched with amusement, confusion and trepidation, at the events as they unfolded. The extraordinary disintegration of Russia’s top brass signalled an unprecedented opportunity on the battlefield, but many on the ground feared what forces were supporting Mr Prigozhin and the dangers of a President Putin backed into the corner. “If Prigozhin starts destroying aeroplanes and helicopters and makes it to Moscow, it means a big deal,” one Ukrainian intelligence source told The Independent. “He can’t be doing this on his own, he must be supported by someone, some oligarch, someone who wants to remove Putin and put him in power. We don’t know who that is, and that is worrying,” the source added. President Zelensky said that Saturday’s events showed the world “that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all”. It’s “complete chaos,” he wrote on his Twitter account. “There is complete absence of any predictability,” he added urging the West to give more support ousting Russia from Ukrainian lands. Ukrainian soldiers said Ukraine made modest gains on Saturday as the situation in Russia disintegrated. “Without a doubt, we will take advantage of this, as you will see in the near future,” Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesperson for the Armed forces in the east, told The Independent. Read More Russia-Ukraine war live: Prigozhin ‘won’t face criminal charges’ over Wagner coup against Putin ‘Let’s go home’: Wagner paramilitary troops prepare to turn around from Moscow advance Is this the end for Putin? His country now stands on the edge of civil war Putin has never looked weaker – it is hard to see how he can ever recover The Body in the Woods | An Independent TV Original Documentary The harrowing discovery at centre of The Independent’s new documentary

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Donald Trump has already been indicted three times this year, twice at the federal level. In April, he was arraigned in New York and pleaded not guilty to state charges after receiving an indictment from Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg accusing him of manipulating his business records to conceal hush money payments allegedly made to porn actress Stormy Daniels in 2016 to stop her discussing an extramarital affair they are said to have had in 2006 in time to derail his presidential run. Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith then handed him a federal indictment in May over his alleged mishandling of classified government documents following the conclusion of his one-term presidency and then another in August over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election result, accusing him of conspiracy to defraud the United States, tampering with a witness and conspiracy against the rights of citizens. In both cases, Mr Trump again pleaded not guilty to all charges. But that’s not all. He could be about to face a fourth indictment, this time from Fani Willis, district attorney of Fulton County, Georgia, over his attempts to influence the 2020 vote count in that crucial swing state, which turned blue for Joe Biden and prompted Mr Trump to pressure local secretary of state Brad Raffensperger into helping him “find” the 11,780 ballots he needed to win, a conversation that was recorded and described as “worse than Watergate” by veteran Washington Post journalist Carl Bernstein. While Ms Willis hasn’t confirmed that an indictment will be handed down this week, her earlier statements and security measures surrounding the Fulton County courthouse indicate that movement is imminent in the case. No former or sitting president of the United States has ever been formally charged with a crime before, so for Mr Trump to have received multiple indictments is already history-making, another ignominious claim to fame for the first American commander-in-chief ever to have been impeached twice. The prospect of Mr Trump winning the presidency again in November 2024 and then attempting to use his presidential pardoning powers to excuse himself is a fascinating prospect that could yet become a reality. As president between 2017 and 2021, Mr Trump cheerily used his executive clemency powers to hand out pardons to no fewer than 237 people, from Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio to right-wing content creator Dinesh D’Souza by way of cronies like Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort and George Papadopoulos. Whether he had the authority to pardon himself was a key question at the time he left office in the aftermath of the deadly Capitol riot of 6 January 2021, which, ultimately, never had to be answered because he did not attempt to do so. The broad consensus among legal experts back then was that there was no stipulation in place to actually prohibit such an act but, given that there was no precedent for it either, it would likely be subjected to a lawsuit calling into question its legal validity. While Mr Trump is now a private citizen and therefore has no such powers, he does find himself in the extraordinary position of being thrice-indicted while simultaneously leading the pack for the Republican Party’s nomination to be its candidate for president in 2024, leaving such rivals as Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Chris Christie eating his dust in the polls. There is nothing in the US Constitution to stop someone from running a presidential campaign while under indictment or even having been convicted of a crime, although its 14th Amendment does prevent anyone from running who has taken an oath of office and thereafter engaged in “insurrection or rebellion” against the country, which could ultimately cause problems for Mr Trump should he be convicted over Mr Smith’s charges pertaining to the Capitol riot. Unless that comes to pass, however, he is free to run for the White House once more. But what would happen if he were to actually win and attempt to use his reinstated pardoning powers for his own benefit is where matters get really knotty. Firstly, presidential pardons are only applicable to federal crimes. While that means he could potentially absolve himself in the classified documents and 2020 election cases brought by Mr Smith, he could not do the same in the indictment brought by Mr Bragg, which is a state affair. Second, the Constitution bans presidents from pardoning themselves from impeachments, meaning any conduct Mr Trump is found guilty of committing in connection with impeachment would not be eligible for a pardon. Third, any pardon would almost certainly result in a Supreme Court case and the court might not be inclined to side with Mr Trump, despite the current conservative majority on its benches. A Justice Department memo from 1974 stated: “Under the fundamental rule that no one may be a judge in his own case, the president cannot pardon himself.” While that memo is not law, it could be used to argue for precedent should the situation go to court. Therefore, if a scenario were to arise in which Mr Trump won the 2024 election but was convicted on charges in the state case (a trial is scheduled for March) or in the federal case relating to the Capitol riot, over which he was impeached, he would not be allowed to pardon himself, likely resulting in a massive and costly legal fight to spare him jail time. If he found himself unable to avoid that outcome, the situation would almost certainly lead to a third impeachment or his removal from office via the 25th Amendment, which allows the Cabinet to remove a president who is unable to perform their duties. There are many duties and trappings of the presidency an incarcerated person would simply not be able to carry out from a prison cell, like the viewing of classified materials, to name just one. We are still very much in hypothetical territory at this point, with any potential conviction for Mr Trump still a long way off and little more than a distant possibility. But the conversations he has started with his latest bid for the presidency have already pushed parts of theoretical US constitutional law far further than many experts ever believed they might live to see. Read More Trump judge demands court hearing as Jack Smith and ex-president spar over protective order – latest Trump-appointed Judge Aileen Cannon sides with Trump again in classified documents case Former Republican official in Georgia subpoenaed over Trump efforts to change election result Trump and Biden tied in hypothetical 2024 rematch, poll finds Prosecutors have started presenting Georgia election investigation to grand jury Hunter Biden's lawyers say gun portion of plea deal remains valid after special counsel announcement Trump assails judge in 2020 election case after she warned him not to make inflammatory remarks

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