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‘Wagner is victim of it’s own brand name’: How much of a threat does mercenary group pose in Belarus?
The newfound presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus, exiled from Russia after their mutinous march on Moscow, has fuelled fresh anxieties in Ukraine and on Nato’s eastern flank. Belarus’s neighbours have moved to a heightened state of alert since dictator Alexander Lukashenko appeared to broker a last-minute deal with the Kremlin to defuse the shortlived mutiny on 23 June and host Wagner troops on Belarusian soil. During a recent meeting at the strategically important Suwalki Gap, a sparsely populated land corridor near their countries’ borders with Belarus and Russia’s enclave of Kaliningrad, Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nauseda warned that north of 4,000 mercenaries were believed to be in Belarus, while Poland’s premier Mateusz Morawiecki branded them “extremely dangerous”. Poland is sending 10,000 troops to its eastern border, and this week held its largest military parade in decades, as it warned that Wagner mercenaries had moved towards Grodno and set up camp in the Brest region, some six miles from Poland’s border. A group associated with Ukraine’s military has also warned that the construction of a “tent city” capable of housing 1,000 mercenaries some 15 miles from its border could be used to simulate a threat there, in a bid to detract from Kyiv’s efforts to make painstaking gains along the heavily mined frontline of Russia’s invasion in the south, and defend a push by Moscow’s forces near Kupiansk in the north. The true extent to which Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s guns for hire are now operating in Belarus – and their aims there – remains hard to determine. “We are dealing with layer upon layer of disinformation,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House. “Not only the repeated information campaign trying to convince Ukraine that there is a renewed threat from the north, but also confusion over exactly what Wagner is doing, who they are reporting to, who they are following orders from, and where they might be.” These factors make it hard to distinguish how much of the threat is “manufactured” to pile pressure on Belarus’s neighbours, Mr Giles said, adding: “The simple answer is that we don’t know. We should watch what is actually being done rather than what is being said.” However, Mark Galeotti, director of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, said he believed Ukraine’s military was not “in the slightest bit worried” about the threat of Wagner attempting to cross its northern border. Speaking of claims the mercenaries could try to cross into Poland or Ukraine, he said: “In some ways, Wagner is a victim of its brand name, and people are suggesting it’s going to do all types of crazy things that are totally beyond their capabilities, but also which frankly no one would even try.” Wagner has “lost all of its heavy equipment”, he added, with Russia’s defence ministry making “damn sure” to reclaim tanks and artillery handed to the mercenaries while in Ukraine, meaning “we’re talking about a bunch of guys with Kalashnikovs, rather than a sort of fully coherent mechanised force”. Citing reports that funding disputes have already seen some mercenaries bussed back to Russia, Mr Galeotti said Ukraine has “ample forces to stop 2,000 guys with guns wandering over” a border “carefully watched” due to its proximity to Kyiv, most likely including by Nato. While he believes Wagner would not pose much of a direct threat even if better equipped, Nick Reynolds, the Royal United Services Institute’s research fellow for land warfare, said the possibility of disruption “can’t be discounted”. Read more: Wagner tracker: Charting Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary group through the Ukraine war Wagner’s presence – along with that of Belarusian and Russian forces – means Ukraine does have to devote some troops to guard the border, which already comes under “a lot of artillery and drone strikes”, albeit not as heavily as troops along frontlines in the Donbas and further south, he said. While Poland’s concerns have been stoked by Mr Lukashenko’s jibes that the country should thank him for constraining Wagner mercenaries he claimed wish to “[smash] up Rzeszow and Warsaw”, the Belarusian leader vowed in February that Minsk would only enter the war if attacked by Ukraine – despite reports of pressure from Vladimir Putin to do so. Mr Reynolds said he did not foresee any real threat from Belarus this year due to the weakness of Minsk’s military and Russia’s presence there being “just not strong enough to credibly pose a threat of opening a second front” – although Moscow’s mobilisation efforts mean “that might change in time”. “Something I’d watch much more closely in the short-term is Wagner’s international footprint,” he said, adding that the group’s compromised position within Russia itself could see it lean more heavily on its activities in Africa and the Middle East, which are of “enormous value diplomatically” to the Kremlin. Mr Giles also warned that “forces taking orders from Russia or Belarus do not need to be large or well-equipped to cause disruption”. He pointed to the “migrant dumping campaign” initiated by Belarus in 2021, with its Baltic neighbours in Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga once again accusing Minsk in recent days of sending asylum-seekers en masse to the border to in a bid to pile pressure on them. And he highlighted the power of Wagner “as an information weapon”, whether to distract Ukraine or “throw some kind of provocation with Poland to try to back the fiction that Lukashenko presents to his people of Poland being an aggressive and threatening neighbour.” Dr Marina Miron, of King’s College London’s war studies department, agreed that an attempted incursion doesn’t make “any kind of sense” logistically, saying: “I think it’s more of a kind of psychological operation than anything else. At least for now.” While the risk is currently low, “at some point, they will be returning to Ukraine”, said Dr Miron. “That’s when there will be a definite threat.” Read More Wagner mercenaries issue a chilling message on Poland’s doorstep: ‘We are here’ Ukraine’s intelligence service claims responsibility for Crimean Bridge drone attack Lithuania to temporarily close two checkpoints with Belarus amid tensions on border Wagner tracker: Charting Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary group through the Ukraine war
2023-08-19 17:46
Is Derek Chauvin OK? Former cop stabbed in Arizona's medium-custody prison plagued by security lapses
Derek Chauvin suffered serious injuries and needed 'life-saving measures' after getting stabbed inside FCI Tucson
2023-11-25 18:23
‘I thought water comes out the sky’: Tom Holland ‘didn’t know’ you had to pay a water bill
Tom Holland has revealed he went through a period of having never paid a water bill - because he thought it was free. The actor made the hilarious confession on Jay Shetty's podcast, where he spoke about adjusting to adulthood. "I think there should be a lesson at school that's called 'Life,' which is like laundry, basic cooking," he says. “I didn't realise you had to pay for your water. I just thought that was a luxury of living in England. Yeah, the water comes out the sky and then it comes out your tap. I was so behind on my water bill." Click here to sign up for our newsletters
2023-07-12 17:58
Andrew Tate criticizes procrastinators and labels them as 'ungrateful' for wasting time, Internet says 'this guy doesn’t honor God'
Andrew Tate asserts that procrastinators come from a sense of entitlement
2023-10-29 20:56
Arsenal ran out of steam last season – but this is a very different Mikel Arteta team
As long as 30 minutes after the game, and at least 30m from the Arsenal dressing room, you could still hear the raucous celebrations inside. The cheers were especially audible as the door to the media room swung open and Mikel Arteta came in for his press conference, when he eventually allowed himself to smile – and quite widely. “A great feeling,” the Arsenal manager said after his side’s 1-0 win over Manchester City, which represented his first points against his former employers, not to mention his club’s first points at all against the champions since April 2017. “You could sense, it’s been so many years without beating them. “They were all dancing and super happy. They go into the international break and the mood is much better. They’re gonna have a few days off, the ones who are not involved, and it just sends everybody away until the next game against Chelsea with the right feeling. It’s great so I’m really happy.” If these sound like the sort of scenes usually reserved for when a trophy is won, that is kind of the point. It’s all about taking this team closer to that first Premier League since 2004. Arteta has taken them step by step over the last four years, and we’re now at the point where it’s truly decisive moves rather than the earlier strides. It was why this was so important. If you are going to actually beat a team as powerful as this Manchester City in the title race, you obviously need to beat them on the pitch, and in the league. Arteta naturally tried to play down its exact psychological significance, but he couldn’t but admit this was important. His interpretations of previous games were maybe a bit generous but that was understandable. “I don’t know if it was a barrier. Obviously it was something we needed to go through. To beat them we have to lose against them, we have to lose probably the way we lost at the Etihad. The team showed a real maturity today, that comes from experiences. Sometimes you need that to become a better team.” That is probably what Arsenal are, even if their points return is worse than this point last season. They are clearly a more substantial team, with more conviction, as a season like last year will ensure. It was an arrival, even if it ended in frustrating fashion. It ultimately proved Arsenal are at that level again. The summer signings have since been about giving them more dimensions. It is one of the more interesting elements of Arsenal’s start to the campaign, as well as what might have been lift-off for Kai Havertz. Arsenal clearly hit on a superb first XI last season, which propelled their campaign for months. The issue was it eventually left Arteta in a bind. He could either persevere with the XI, at the cost of energy given how little they were rested, or he could change up but also remove some of the verve. He tried to do a bit of both in the end, and they somewhat inevitably ran out of steam. Since then, Arteta has obviously been trying to give them more depth, but also variety. Havertz was about exactly this. Arteta will especially enjoy his contribution, the pass to Gabriel Martinelli for the goal coming as it did just minutes after the German came on. It looked simple but was about his spatial awareness and presence of mind. The effect of just doing that can’t be discounted either – as with the win. Arsenal will believe, even more than before. Nobody should believe this is going to be the City for the rest of the season of course. They have some huge absences, especially with Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne. They will return and both the team and Erling Haaland will inevitably go on the sort of run they did last season at least once. Arsenal should be more equipped to go that bit further, to get more points. That was what the celebrations felt like they were about, at least in part. The team is that bit closer to completion. Read More Mikel Arteta hails ‘fantastic’ young Arsenal side as they break Man City hex Arteta provides Saka injury update and rules Arsenal star out for England Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta hails ‘maturity’ of young Gunners after City win Gabriel Martinelli snatches last-gasp victory for Arsenal against Man City Fortune favours Arsenal as Mikel Arteta finally outdoes Pep Guardiola Pep Guardiola says he learned ‘a lot’ from Mikel Arteta ahead of Sunday reunion
2023-10-10 00:28
Paige Spiranac calls herself 'whole package' while slamming critics: 'I come off as every guy’s fantasy'
There's never a dull moment when Paige Spiranac is around, and she just knows how to keep the good times rolling
2023-06-01 17:17
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