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On Thursday evening, Arsenal were still hoping that Bukayo Saka would feature on Sunday, but Mikel Arteta has had to start drawing up alternative plans. And that could serve his side well in a pivotal clash with the potential to define the title race. It is no bad thing to have Pep Guardiola second-guessing you, and the Manchester City manager can take that to third-, fourth- or even beyond fifth-guessing. The Catalan will be rolling everything around in his mind, having pored over recent footage. Most of the footage of recent Arsenal-City games, mind, has been all too clear. They’ve all gone one way, to an almost farcical degree. City have beaten Arsenal for 12 successive Premier League games. That run would be bad enough if it was over a bottom-half side, but it is virtually unprecedented among financial heavyweights or the old “big six”. Arsenal have admittedly had many iterations throughout what was a transformative and often difficult period in their history, but you have to go back to a Shkodran Mustafi header in April 2017 for the last time they even claimed a point off City. And you have to go back to December 2015, and goals from Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud, for Arsenal’s last victory in the fixture. That is what Arteta is trying to overcome, as he makes constant appeals to only consider the present and the future. It is not just about revenge for last season, a quick recovery after a shock defeat to RC Lens or even reasserting Arsenal’s title credentials after a rare City defeat. It will be about overcoming the knowledge that the champions almost always beat them. That can be a huge psychological factor for a team, creating a fatalism, even subconsciously. Arteta can at least point to one big victory in the FA Cup as well as this summer’s shoot-out win in the Community Shield, but the fact that the Premier League represents their great ambition means there’s a different feel to it. It’s something they need to address, especially if they are to actually beat City in the league. It is one of those psychological hurdles that needs to be overcome, just as City faced with Manchester United after the Abu Dhabi takeover. The Community Shield may still influence this, mind, because of how Guardiola did something so different in that game. He decided to properly bait the press, in the same way that Roberto De Zerbi has made this his great innovation. Arsenal didn’t bite, and came through the game, but it has almost set a kind of tactical arms race in motion; where last season’s top two keep trading significant moves that could affect the course of this year. Arsenal beat City to Declan Rice, City attempted to undercut Arsenal’s entire approach by baiting the press. Arsenal didn’t respond but are trying to add more tactical variety to last season, meaning they didn’t start the campaign as well as the champions. City then lost Rodri to a red card and unexpectedly lost a game, allowing Arsenal back in. That could now be offset with the absence of Saka, as both managers attempt to figure out what happens next. Perhaps Arsenal are “due”, but that could have been said years ago. Will Guardiola attempt to bait Arsenal again? Does Arteta prepare for that, or something different altogether? Both of these managers could send each other down all manner of avenues with second guesses. And how it all ends may depend on just who starts. Read More Bukayo Saka ‘in contention’ for Arsenal vs Man City as Gareth Southgate reveals plan Gareth Southgate gives Bukayo Saka injury update ahead of Arsenal vs Man City Manchester City can put a stamp on the season with Arsenal win – Rico Lewis Bukayo Saka ‘in contention’ for Arsenal vs Man City as Gareth Southgate reveals plan Gareth Southgate gives Bukayo Saka injury update ahead of Arsenal vs Man City Ollie Watkins and Jarrod Bowen make England return but Raheem Sterling left out

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Manchester United were pointless and headed for humiliation. As Brentford scored four goals in a half – and the first half at that – and Erik ten Hag’s reign began amid farce, a footballer who had starred in four Champions League final victories reached for his phone. United’s most high-profile transfer target texted his agent. But not to back out of a deal. The message, instead, was to tell United he would “fix” it. It was a sign of Casemiro’s confidence. If that self-assurance is a product of a career of rare success – the Carabao Cup took his trophy count to 21 – many another would have been deterred by the impression United were in crisis. They might have stayed at Real Madrid. Not him. “No second thoughts at all,” he recalled. “But to be honest I did say that. I was speaking to my agent, and with John [Murtough, United’s director of football] too about this afterwards. I’d said this after it had happened because I was also very excited and I was aware that my period at Real Madrid had come to an end and I was really upbeat about coming here and taking on this new project, this new challenge. It was clear in my mind.” Eight months later, it is tempting to contemplate an alternative reality where, after missing out on Frenkie de Jong last summer, Casemiro was put off by the shambolic display at Brentford, where instead of being a £63 million method of transforming a team, there was still a void at the heart of the midfield. “I knew that it wouldn’t be an easy challenge because it was a tough defeat to take but I think the excitement of coming here and making a change,” he reflected. Which he did: Casemiro provided a boost to United’s self-esteem even before he played, his unveiling at half-time of the win over Liverpool a sign of the club’s status. United only lost three of the first 32 games he started. He scored and was player of the match in the Carabao Cup final. United took 75 points from the 36 league matches after he joined and finished third. “We knew that it was a project in which you wouldn’t start winning things overnight,” he said, but they could complete a cup double at Wembley on Saturday. It appears as though he has fixed it. “It’s impossible for a single player to change performances but as a squad you can,” he demurred. Yet a turning point was October’s 6-3 defeat to Manchester City. Casemiro watched two-thirds of it from the bench: Ten Hag was still picking Scott McTominay ahead of him and if the Dutchman has made relatively few missteps, that seems one. The Brazilian marked his first Premier League start with an assist for Cristiano Ronaldo’s winner at Everton the following week. His first goal came a couple of weeks later, an injury-time equaliser at Chelsea. Each was a sign he tended to make telling contributions. Tallies of seven goals and six assists may be more than most expected; so, in a different way, are his two red cards. But they underline his centrality. He has been a fulcrum for United, the man at the heart of everything. Which is how he thinks it ought to be. City’s galaxy of gifted midfielders mean Casemiro’s skills as a nullifier will be required if Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva are to be kept quiet at Wembley. “When people talk about central defensive midfielders, they forget that you need to help your teammates, you need to defend, to slot in between the centre-backs, cover any gaps that the full-backs or midfielders leave,” said a man who forged a reputation as the world’s best holding midfielder in Madrid, before offering an explanation for his greater productivity. “These are the basic principles for a central defensive midfielder. Of course, beyond that, people want you to score goals, to pass the ball, to get the team playing because football’s changed. In the past it would be the No. 10 that would be required to do that.” He can be both destructive and constructive presence, which he sees as a sign of the evolution in tactics. “I saw an interview with [Juan Roman] Riquelme once talking about central defensive midfielders and specifically [Sergio] Busquets,” Casemiro explained. “He said that often the team didn’t play well because the central holding midfielder hadn’t played [well] and people forget that throughout the history of football, it was the No. 10 who was the playmaker. The central defensive midfielder was always someone that helped the centre-backs, helped in the midfield, helped the full-backs, filled in and stopped counter attacks. The way that central defensive midfielders have had to adapt has changed a lot.” But he will hope some things stay the same. He has an outstanding record in finals; with Real, United and Brazil, he has only lost one, in the 2018 European Super Cup. “Without doubt it’s a significant stat,” he said. He also has experience of getting the better of City; Real trailed for 178 minutes of the Champions League semi-finals last season and yet still overcame Pep Guardiola’s team. “They play very good football and have a great manager and great players but every game is a different story, a different film,” he said. But if the movie of United’s season started in ignominy and ended in glory, the Casemiro biopic might have a certain monotony, if only because he has won so much, so often. Read More Manchester United are obsessed with stopping Man City – their history depends on it The unlikely Manchester United answer to derail Man City’s treble hopes How Raphael Varane transformed Manchester United: ‘You need the character to fight’ Andre Marriner retires from refereeing Bruno Fernandes nets Man Utd winner in comeback against Fulham to clinch third Manchester United owe Champions League return to one man