Ever look down at your phone and see the weather forecasting “30 percent chance of rain”? Well, it turns out that for many people, those percentages don’t quite mean what they thought they did. You might assume a 30 percent chance of rain means there is a 30 percent chance that it will rain in your area. But what it actually means is a combination of a) how high the chance of rain is over any given area, and b) how much of the area it is expected to cover. “The probability of precipitation forecast is one of the least understood elements of the weather forecast,” the US National Weather Service explains. “To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01 inch [0.025 centimeters] or more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified.” It comes after an account on X/Twitter, posted a viral picture of somebody saying: “Am I the only one who thought 30% chance of rain meant it’s a 30% chance it’s gonna rain?” What actually happens is as follows. To calculate the precipitation probability, forecasters multiply how much of an area they believe will receive this much rain, by how confident they are in their prediction that rain will fall in that area. The NWS gives the following examples, which both lead to a prediction of a 40 percent chance of rain via very different weather scenarios: “(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read ‘a 40% chance of rain’ for any given location. “(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a ‘40% chance of rain’ at any given location in the forecast area.” Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

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It’s fair to say that the Duke of Sussex and the media – particularly the tabloid press – don’t get on all too well, with the prince previously branding it the “devil” in an interview with ITV News’ Tom Bradby earlier this year. Now, as the duke is back in the headlines with his court case against the publisher of the Daily Mirror over alleged phone hacking (which the company denies), paparazzi and broadcasters have a bit of a problem with capturing footage inside of the courtroom. While the broadcasting of High Court and Senior Circuit judges handing out criminal sentences was allowed from 2020 (with the first sentencing remarks aired in 2022 due to the coronavirus pandemic), filming anything else in court is very much forbidden and risks those responsible being found in contempt. Except, written transcriptions aren’t the most visually exciting thing in the world for TV news stations, who are more interested in some good quality video for their reporting. Thankfully, Sky News offered up a solution on Tuesday – by roping in an actor to perform a dramatic recital of some of the most eye-opening moments from Harry’s testimony. In a clip of a reconstruction shared by the station online, Laurence Dobiesz (who starred in the 2011 Sherlock Holmes film sequel A Game of Shadows) can be seen sporting a blue suit and standing behind a lectern as he tries to emulate the duke’s demeanour in court. Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter The accompanying caption reads: “In the phone hacking case, Prince Harry told the court that every single article played a destructive role in his life. “There are no cameras in court, so as part of a special progamme, Sky News has recorded what was said by the duke, played by an actor.” With a few extravagant hand gestures along the way, Dobiesz recites a passage in which the prince said “every single one” of the articles penned by the tabloid press played a “destructive role in my growing up”. Harry/the actor (this is all very confusing) said: “More than thousands, maybe millions of articles have been written about me since age 12 … because it’s 20 years ago, I simply cannot speculate how I was and whether I saw these articles at the time. “I certainly saw lots of articles at the time - the ones I was made aware of because of the behaviour and reaction of people in my inner circle. “Unfortunately, stories that I’ve only shared with one or two people within my inner circle, ends up front page of a newspaper or any page, your circle of friends starts to shrink and diminish rather rapidly.” It’s certainly an unusual way of presenting the information to viewers, but Twitter was soon to conclude it was still “creepy” and “embarrassing”: The actor’s appearance was part of a special programme on Sky News titled Harry in Court, presented by Jonathan Samuels and airing every night at 9pm. Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

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