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As nations across Southern Europe along with parts of the US face temperatures topping 40C, El Nino conditions are building in the Pacific that bring a chance of a record-breaking event that will bring more such sweltering heat. Last month saw a “weak” El Nino form, a periodic climatic event around the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which can cause knock-on heat around the world. But an update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) on Thursday said that it will almost certainly strengthen throughout the year, with an 81 per cent chance it will peak with a “moderate to strong intensity” between November and January. There is a one in five chance that this event will be of “historic” strength, rivaling the major one experienced in 1997, Noaa said. Such an event would only increase the chances of more extreme heat as seen in Italy, Spain, Greece and parts of the US this week, with an expectation such temperatures will continue into next week. The European Space Agency (ESA), whose satellites monitor land and sea temperatures, said July will be a torrid month, with the heatwave in the region – named Cerberus – pushing temperatures up towards 48C (118F). "Italy, Spain, France, Germany and Poland are all facing a major heatwave with temperatures expected to climb to 48 Celsius on the islands of Sicily and Sardinia, potentially the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe," it said. Tourists have been warned to take care in the extreme heat, with Cerberus has taken hold across many popular British family holiday hotspots in the Mediterranean. An Abta spokesman said: "High temperatures around our favourite holiday hotspots are not uncommon at this time of year and it is always important that you take sensible precautions, particularly making sure that you and your family drink plenty of bottled water as it is extremely easy to become dehydrated, and always use plenty of high factor sun cream. "Follow the example of local people and leave the beach at midday and early afternoon when the sun is at its most powerful, to have a long, leisurely alfresco lunch in the shade. "Holidaymakers have the option of cooling off in the pool or sea and don't forget to put on the air conditioning or turn on the fan at night to ensure you have a cool, restful sleep." Rebekah Sherwin, an expert meteorologist from the Met Office's global forecasting team, said the "heatwave conditions already occurring across much of southern Europe, northwest Africa and the Middle East are expected to continue through the coming week". She added: "Peak temperatures, which are around 10 to 15C higher than average, could reach the mid-40s degrees Celsius in parts of southern Europe and up to 50C in parts of North Africa. Ms Sherwin said that "unusually high" sea surface temperatures are also occurring across the region, with many parts of the Mediterranean seeing surface temperatures as high as 25 to 28C. Weather alerts were in place across Spain's Canary Islands, Italy, Cyprus and Greece, with the Greek authorities expecting temperatures to reach as high as 43C or 44C on Friday or Saturday. In Greece, the government has ordered the suspension of work between 12pm and 5pm local time in areas where the risk from heat is very high, and also requested remote work for private sector employees with health conditions. In the Balkans, beachgoers in the Croatian town of Nin smeared themselves in its medicinal local mud to protect themselves from the sun while 56 firefighters with 20 vehicles and three aircraft struggled to contain a brush fire near the Adriatic town of Sibenik. In Southwest US, searing conditions will build into Friday and throughout the weekend in the central and southern parts of California, where many residents should prepare for the hottest weather of the year, the US National Weather Service warned. Midday highs were mostly expected to be above 38C, and desert areas could reach nearly 49C, forecasters said. Across the US, more than 111 million people were under extreme heat advisories, watches and warnings. The heat could continue into next week as a high pressure dome moves west from Texas. In Arizona, temperatures have hit 43C for more than a dozen consecutive days. The United Nation's World Meteorological Organisation said on Monday that global temperatures recorded in early July were among the hottest on record. Presss Association, Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report Read More Florida coral reefs risk ‘nasty bleaching’ as temperatures reach 90F Hottest week on record ‘worrying news for planet’, say scientists Earth sets its hottest day record for third time in a week Deforestation of Amazon down by a third in 2023 after Bolsonaro’s defeat Earth’s record high temperature maintained for second day Beijing bans outdoor work after city suffers 10-day streak of temperatures beyond 35C

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said that he he warned the Wagner mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to "watch out" for threats to his life before the plane crash said to have killed him. Mr Lukashenko helped broker a deal between Mr Prigozhin and the Kremlin that ended an attempted mutiny by Wagner forces against Moscow in June – an uprising that marked the most significant challenge to Mr Putin's authority in more than two decades in power. Two months to the day after that revolt was halted, with fighters 125 miles from the Russian capital, a plane believed to be carrying Mr Prigozhin and a number of other members of Wagner's senior leadership crashed on Wednesday evening. Mr Putin had called the Wagner mutiny treason, and had initially vowed to crush it, and a number of world leaders have suggested that he would not let the embarrassment of that incident stand. Mr Lukashenko said on Friday that Mr Prigozhin had twice dismissed concerns raised by the Belarusian leader about possible threats to his life. Mr Lukashenko said that during the mutiny he had warned Mr Prigozhin that he would "die" if he continued to march on Moscow, to which he said Mr Prigozhin had answered: "'To hell with it - I will die'." Then, Mr Lukashenko said, when Mr Prigozhin and his right-hand man, Dmitry Utkin, who was also listed as a passenger on the plane which crashed, had come to see him, he had warned them both: "Lads – you watch out". Mr Lukashenko said that the Wagner leader had never asked him for security guarantees. "I don't have to ensure Prigozhin's safety... the conversation was never in that vein." It was not exactly clear from Mr Lukashenko’s words, which were reported by state news agency BELTA, when that conversation took place, Reuters reports. Mr Lukashenko has previously claimed that he persuaded Mr Putin not to "wipe out" the Wagner leader. US officials, speaking to American media, have suggested that a preliminary US intelligence assessment concluded the plane was downed by an intentional explosion. One of the US and Western officials who described the assessment to the Associated Press said it determined that Mr Prigozhin was “very likely” targeted and that the explosion falls in line with Putin’s “long history of trying to silence his critics.” The Kremlin rejected that assessment on Friday, falling back on a regular refrain for Moscow that it is the West that are the root of the problem. “Right now, of course, there are lots of speculations around this plane crash and the tragic deaths of the passengers of the plane, including Yevgeny Prigozhin,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said during a conference call with journalists. “Of course, in the West those speculations are put out under a certain angle, and all of it is a complete lie,” he claimed. On Thursday, Mr Putin appeared to eulogise Mr Prigozhin, calling him a “great businessman”. But he also said that the the Wagner leader had made “serious mistakes” in his life and had a “complicated fate”. A close ally of Mr Putin, the Belarusian president said that he believed the plane crash was “just too rough and unprofessional a job” for the Russian leader to be involved. “I know Putin: he is calculating, very calm, even tardy,” Lukashenko said. “I cannot imagine that Putin did it, that Putin is to blame.” The jet crashed soon after taking off from Moscow for St. Petersburg, carrying Mr Prigozhin, six other Wagner members and a crew of three, according to Russia's civil aviation authority. Rescuers found 10 bodies, and Russian media cited anonymous sources in Wagner who said Mr Prigozhin was dead. As part of the deal to end June's mutiny, Mr Prigozhin was due to set up in Belarus, with any Wagner fighters that wanted to join him. While the mercenary leader appeared to be able to travel freely, thousands have his fighters have travelled to Belarus, and have been training Belarusian soldiers near the border with Nato-member Poland. Warsaw has moved thousands of its own troops to its border in response. Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Friday that it was "highly likely" Mr Prigozhin was dead and that his death "would almost certainly have a deeply destabilising effect" on Wagner, with the reported deaths of Mr Utkin and logistics chief Valery Chekalov compounding a "leadership vacuum", Mr Lukashenko said Wagner fighters would remain in Belarus. "Wager lived, Wagner is living and Wagner will live in Belarus," the president said. "The core remains here." "As long as we need this unit, they will live and work with us," he said. Elsewhere, on the battlefield in Ukraine – which has been subject to Russian invasion for 18 months – there was a significant attack on Russian-occupied Crimea involving dozens of drones. Russia's Defence Ministry said that 42 drones had been shot down over Crimea and 73 as a whole across across the last 24 hours. The attacks were the latest in a surge of similar incidents in recent weeks. Ukraine has said that destroying Russia's military infrastructure helps a counteroffensive than Kyiv began in June. President Volodymyr Zelensky told an international conference this week that Kyiv would "de-occupy" Crimea. Ukrainian military intelligence said it had assisted the navy this week in a "special operation" in which they landed units on the western tip of Crimea, had a firefight with Russian forces and raised a Ukrainian flag. Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report Read More The Body in the Woods | An Independent TV Original Documentary The harrowing discovery at centre of The Independent’s new documentary What next for the Wagner Group in Russia? Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin? Wagner chief presumed dead in plane crash What is the Wagner mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin?

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