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‘Wagner is victim of it’s own brand name’: How much of a threat does mercenary group pose in Belarus?
‘Wagner is victim of it’s own brand name’: How much of a threat does mercenary group pose in Belarus?
The newfound presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus, exiled from Russia after their mutinous march on Moscow, has fuelled fresh anxieties in Ukraine and on Nato’s eastern flank. Belarus’s neighbours have moved to a heightened state of alert since dictator Alexander Lukashenko appeared to broker a last-minute deal with the Kremlin to defuse the shortlived mutiny on 23 June and host Wagner troops on Belarusian soil. During a recent meeting at the strategically important Suwalki Gap, a sparsely populated land corridor near their countries’ borders with Belarus and Russia’s enclave of Kaliningrad, Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nauseda warned that north of 4,000 mercenaries were believed to be in Belarus, while Poland’s premier Mateusz Morawiecki branded them “extremely dangerous”. Poland is sending 10,000 troops to its eastern border, and this week held its largest military parade in decades, as it warned that Wagner mercenaries had moved towards Grodno and set up camp in the Brest region, some six miles from Poland’s border. A group associated with Ukraine’s military has also warned that the construction of a “tent city” capable of housing 1,000 mercenaries some 15 miles from its border could be used to simulate a threat there, in a bid to detract from Kyiv’s efforts to make painstaking gains along the heavily mined frontline of Russia’s invasion in the south, and defend a push by Moscow’s forces near Kupiansk in the north. The true extent to which Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s guns for hire are now operating in Belarus – and their aims there – remains hard to determine. “We are dealing with layer upon layer of disinformation,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House. “Not only the repeated information campaign trying to convince Ukraine that there is a renewed threat from the north, but also confusion over exactly what Wagner is doing, who they are reporting to, who they are following orders from, and where they might be.” These factors make it hard to distinguish how much of the threat is “manufactured” to pile pressure on Belarus’s neighbours, Mr Giles said, adding: “The simple answer is that we don’t know. We should watch what is actually being done rather than what is being said.” However, Mark Galeotti, director of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, said he believed Ukraine’s military was not “in the slightest bit worried” about the threat of Wagner attempting to cross its northern border. Speaking of claims the mercenaries could try to cross into Poland or Ukraine, he said: “In some ways, Wagner is a victim of its brand name, and people are suggesting it’s going to do all types of crazy things that are totally beyond their capabilities, but also which frankly no one would even try.” Wagner has “lost all of its heavy equipment”, he added, with Russia’s defence ministry making “damn sure” to reclaim tanks and artillery handed to the mercenaries while in Ukraine, meaning “we’re talking about a bunch of guys with Kalashnikovs, rather than a sort of fully coherent mechanised force”. Citing reports that funding disputes have already seen some mercenaries bussed back to Russia, Mr Galeotti said Ukraine has “ample forces to stop 2,000 guys with guns wandering over” a border “carefully watched” due to its proximity to Kyiv, most likely including by Nato. While he believes Wagner would not pose much of a direct threat even if better equipped, Nick Reynolds, the Royal United Services Institute’s research fellow for land warfare, said the possibility of disruption “can’t be discounted”. Read more: Wagner tracker: Charting Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary group through the Ukraine war Wagner’s presence – along with that of Belarusian and Russian forces – means Ukraine does have to devote some troops to guard the border, which already comes under “a lot of artillery and drone strikes”, albeit not as heavily as troops along frontlines in the Donbas and further south, he said. While Poland’s concerns have been stoked by Mr Lukashenko’s jibes that the country should thank him for constraining Wagner mercenaries he claimed wish to “[smash] up Rzeszow and Warsaw”, the Belarusian leader vowed in February that Minsk would only enter the war if attacked by Ukraine – despite reports of pressure from Vladimir Putin to do so. Mr Reynolds said he did not foresee any real threat from Belarus this year due to the weakness of Minsk’s military and Russia’s presence there being “just not strong enough to credibly pose a threat of opening a second front” – although Moscow’s mobilisation efforts mean “that might change in time”. “Something I’d watch much more closely in the short-term is Wagner’s international footprint,” he said, adding that the group’s compromised position within Russia itself could see it lean more heavily on its activities in Africa and the Middle East, which are of “enormous value diplomatically” to the Kremlin. Mr Giles also warned that “forces taking orders from Russia or Belarus do not need to be large or well-equipped to cause disruption”. He pointed to the “migrant dumping campaign” initiated by Belarus in 2021, with its Baltic neighbours in Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga once again accusing Minsk in recent days of sending asylum-seekers en masse to the border to in a bid to pile pressure on them. And he highlighted the power of Wagner “as an information weapon”, whether to distract Ukraine or “throw some kind of provocation with Poland to try to back the fiction that Lukashenko presents to his people of Poland being an aggressive and threatening neighbour.” Dr Marina Miron, of King’s College London’s war studies department, agreed that an attempted incursion doesn’t make “any kind of sense” logistically, saying: “I think it’s more of a kind of psychological operation than anything else. At least for now.” While the risk is currently low, “at some point, they will be returning to Ukraine”, said Dr Miron. “That’s when there will be a definite threat.” Read More Wagner mercenaries issue a chilling message on Poland’s doorstep: ‘We are here’ Ukraine’s intelligence service claims responsibility for Crimean Bridge drone attack Lithuania to temporarily close two checkpoints with Belarus amid tensions on border Wagner tracker: Charting Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary group through the Ukraine war
2023-08-19 17:46
Factbox-How a US government shutdown would affect foreign policy
Factbox-How a US government shutdown would affect foreign policy
WASHINGTON If Congress fails to provide funding for the fiscal year starting on Sunday and the government shuts
2023-09-30 07:23
‘Getaway king’ French gangster who escaped prison in helicopter is jailed again
‘Getaway king’ French gangster who escaped prison in helicopter is jailed again
A jailed French gangster known as the “getaway king” after two dramatic escapes from prison - one involving a hijacked helicopter - will be locked up for a further 14 years. Redoine Faid, who says he drew inspiration for his criminal career from French and American gangster films, escaped from Reau prison, southeast of Paris, in July 2018. He had been in the prison’s visiting room when three men burst in and got him onto the aircraft, which had landed in one of the prison courtyards. Just five years earlier, in April 2013, he escaped from Sequedin prison in the north of the capital, using explosives to blast through five prison doors, taking four prison wardens hostage, and escaping in two getaway cars. A self-described “freedom addict”, Faid, who has multiple convictions for armed robbery, went on trial earlier this month and was this week sentenced to 14 years additional years behind bars for the prison break. The 51-year-old appeared at Assize Court with a smile and wearing a blue sweater. Among the 11 co-defendants were his two brothers, one of whom he greeted with a kiss, three nephews and a convicted member of the Corsica underworld. Prosecutors had requested 22 years for the jailbreak, spearheaded by Faid’s brother Rachid, who took a helicopter pilot hostage and ordered him to fly to the prison. Rachid got 10 years for his involvement in the plot. Three armed accomplices let off smoke bombs to confuse guards at the prison, one of the men - identified as Faid’s elder brother Rachid - used a disc grinder to cut through doors leading to the visiting room. Faid had been receiving a visit from another brother, Brahim. Inmates of the prison cheered as the helicopter took off with its new passenger, with the operation taking just 10 minutes. Brahim told the court he had no idea about the plan and he was acquitted. After Faid was sprung from the prison, the helicopter landed in Gonesse, a northeastern suburb of Paris, where he and his accomplices continued their escape by car. Authorities later found a burnt-out black Renault suspected of being the getaway car in Aulnay-sous-Bois, another suburb of the capital. The assailants are thought to have changed vehicles, continuing their escape in a van. Faid was arrested by special forces in October 2018 in an apartment located in the city of Creil, in the northern suburbs of Paris, having spent three months on the run. He had been seen dressed as a woman, wearing a burqa. In 2017, he was sentenced on appeal to 25 years in prison for masterminding a failed 2010 robbery, which claimed the life of a policewoman. As a young delinquent in a troubled suburb north of Paris, Faid took his inspiration from gangster movies. He told the court it was his love of freedom that drove him to escape from jail. "I’m in a concrete sarcophagus 23 hours out of 24… What am I going to do? Kick my heels indefinitely. I have an addiction which consumes me and which I cannot cure. I am addicted to freedom." Read More Russia-Ukraine war live: North Korea hands over 1,000 containers of weapons to Putin Putin’s many ‘heart attacks’ and why the rumours may be in his favour Russia recruits prisoners for Ukraine war as Putin replicates Wagner Russia-Ukraine war live: North Korea hands over 1,000 containers of weapons to Putin Putin’s many ‘heart attacks’ and why the rumours may be in his favour Russia recruits prisoners for Ukraine war as Putin replicates Wagner
2023-10-26 17:47
Ecuador Tragedy Sparks Uneasy Rally in $15 Billion of Bonds
Ecuador Tragedy Sparks Uneasy Rally in $15 Billion of Bonds
Ecuador, still grieving from the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, is a week away from an election
2023-08-12 20:26
'Today' host Hoda Kotb snaps at Jenna Bush Hager for repeatedly using NSFW word on show: 'Stop saying that'
'Today' host Hoda Kotb snaps at Jenna Bush Hager for repeatedly using NSFW word on show: 'Stop saying that'
Hoda Kotb and Jenna Bush Hager's on-air antics were on full display as they hosted the game segment
2023-06-22 10:23
Kelly Osbourne denies having plastic surgery as mom Sharon defends her use of weight loss drug Ozempic
Kelly Osbourne denies having plastic surgery as mom Sharon defends her use of weight loss drug Ozempic
Kelly Osbourne has set the record straight on the speculation that she has had cosmetic surgery on her face
2023-09-06 04:53
Toto Wolff fuelled by ‘personal anger’ to help Lewis Hamilton win eighth title
Toto Wolff fuelled by ‘personal anger’ to help Lewis Hamilton win eighth title
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff said he is fuelled by a personal anger and drive to help Lewis Hamilton win the record eighth world championship he was denied in Abu Dhabi. In an interview with the PA news agency ahead of this weekend’s blockbuster Las Vegas Grand Prix, team principal Wolff also revealed his own succession plan at Mercedes – in which he plans to skip as many as 10 races each season – and claimed Hamilton, 38, could compete in Formula One for at least another five years. Wolff has arrived in Sin City for the inaugural night race on the Las Vegas strip following Mercedes’ abysmal performance last time out in Brazil – one he described as the worst of his career. I have a personal anger, and drive to make him (Hamilton) win the eighth title because he should have had it Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff Hamilton finished 63 seconds behind winner Max Verstappen, and gloomily predicted he will not be a championship contender for the next two years. Next month will mark two years since the seven-time world champion last won a race, and that ill-fated evening in Abu Dhabi where race referee Michael Masi’s failure to imply the correct rules left him at the mercy of Verstappen. The Dutchman took the championship in the desert before quickly racking up another two titles in his all-conquering Red Bull. “We are living in a hamster wheel where time passes so quickly that it doesn’t feel like it has been two years,” said Wolff. “You can see how quickly the pecking order changes. We won eight constructors’ championships in a row, and it has been two years since Red Bull have been taking the trophy home. But we have to look forward, learn from the past, and the push now is to make Lewis win quickly again. “I have a personal anger, and drive to make him win the eighth title because he should have had it. “As a team principal, it is important to be fair and open with both drivers. But there is a big part of us that will always want to be a part of that story in undoing and overcoming 2021.” Hamilton will start a new two-year deal with the Silver Arrows next season, worth an estimated £100million. He will be nearly 41 at the conclusion of the contract, but Wolff does not believe it will be his last with Mercedes. “We are living from contract-to-contract, and it is important that we are doing what we think is right and what we feel is right, and at the moment I personally feel he can go longer,” added the Austrian. And could he carry on for another five years? “He is 39 in January, and Fernando (Alonso – 42) is still going strong,” replied Wolff. “As long as you look after yourself, you do the best preparation, physically and mentally, and develop different areas to when you are 25, then yes. “We just need to give him a car that is quick enough. And, as a driver, I have no doubt about him. You have seen in the last races that his performance, speed and race craft are all there. But, if he doesn’t have the car underneath him, he cannot win.” Wolff oversaw Mercedes’ crushing dominance which led to Hamilton winning six of his record-equalling seven world crowns. But Wolff’s future as team principal is in the spotlight following Mercedes’ dramatic demise. And although he admitted he intends to stay on as team principal, the 51-year-old, who also holds a one-third shareholding in Mercedes, is plotting his succession plan. “The clear aim is to build a structure for the future and that is my sheer responsibility for the team,” said Wolff, who was absent from the races in Japan and Qatar earlier this season following knee surgery. “A stone could fall on my head and how does it look afterwards? That is why I would like to see myself in a few years maybe not going to 24 races, and just to 15. “But that is many years away. I see myself in this role for a long time. I cannot imagine doing something else. “I really struggled in 2020 to make a decision on whether I wanted to stay active in the sport or to be a shareholder and go back to my finance world. I was tired, mentally and physically, but then I came to the realisation that I wanted to continue. “I feel I am contributing to the team in the crossover world of finance and motor racing, and I have a passion for both, and that is why I continue to do it.” Over at Red Bull, Verstappen has won 17 of the 20 rounds so far – which included a record 10-in-a-row streak – in the most dominant season the sport has ever witnessed. Wolff caused controversy when he poured scorn on Verstappen’s achievements, calling them “irrelevant” and “only for Wikipedia and nobody reads that anyway”. “It was not an intelligent thing to say,” said Wolff. “There were all these numbers about how many races we had won, and we used to joke that who cares about the numbers? It only goes on Wikipedia, and nobody reads that anyway. It was a joke, but it is much easier to joke about your own records than somebody else’s. “His records are unbelievable and what he has been able to achieve clearly ranks him amongst the greatest drivers in the sport at that young age. I have clarified that with him.” Read More On this day in 2010: Sebastian Vettel becomes youngest ever F1 world champion Lewis Hamilton ‘counting down days’ to end of season after another poor race Max Verstappen thwarts Lando Norris’ bid for first F1 win with sprint victory On this day in 2015: Susie Wolff ends her bid to get on an F1 starting grid Lando Norris ‘gutted’ to miss out on Brazilian GP pole after McLaren blunder Carlos Sainz leads Ferrari one-two in Brazilian Grand Prix practice
2023-11-15 17:26
Options Empowers Traders with Deployment of NYSE Chicago Integrated Feed
Options Empowers Traders with Deployment of NYSE Chicago Integrated Feed
LONDON & NEW YORK & HONG KONG--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct 18, 2023--
2023-10-18 20:16
Analysis-Trump puts courts in bind with criticism of judges, legal system
Analysis-Trump puts courts in bind with criticism of judges, legal system
By Andrew Goudsward WASHINGTON Donald Trump's attacks on the U.S. justice system face a fresh test next week
2023-10-13 18:19
Andrew Tate links Kenneth Darlington's fatal shooting of climate activists with 'masculine urge', Internet says 'you need help'
Andrew Tate links Kenneth Darlington's fatal shooting of climate activists with 'masculine urge', Internet says 'you need help'
Controversial figure Andrew Tate ignited backlash by linking Kenneth Darlington's fatal shooting of two climate activists to a 'masculine urge'
2023-11-10 13:58
Tesla goes off-roading with Cybertruck, shares video to prove it
Tesla goes off-roading with Cybertruck, shares video to prove it
The Cybertruck, Tesla's three-ton, stainless-steel plated electric truck, is built for some serious off-roading, and
2023-10-13 16:18
Morocco earthquake: Birmingham mother's fear for survival
Morocco earthquake: Birmingham mother's fear for survival
Shabina Bano says she did not know if her family would survive when Friday's quake struck.
2023-09-12 00:22