Ever look down at your phone and see the weather forecasting “30 percent chance of rain”? Well, it turns out that for many people, those percentages don’t quite mean what they thought they did. You might assume a 30 percent chance of rain means there is a 30 percent chance that it will rain in your area. But what it actually means is a combination of a) how high the chance of rain is over any given area, and b) how much of the area it is expected to cover. “The probability of precipitation forecast is one of the least understood elements of the weather forecast,” the US National Weather Service explains. “To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01 inch [0.025 centimeters] or more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified.” It comes after an account on X/Twitter, posted a viral picture of somebody saying: “Am I the only one who thought 30% chance of rain meant it’s a 30% chance it’s gonna rain?” What actually happens is as follows. To calculate the precipitation probability, forecasters multiply how much of an area they believe will receive this much rain, by how confident they are in their prediction that rain will fall in that area. The NWS gives the following examples, which both lead to a prediction of a 40 percent chance of rain via very different weather scenarios: “(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read ‘a 40% chance of rain’ for any given location. “(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a ‘40% chance of rain’ at any given location in the forecast area.” Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

The Green Bay Packers fell 17-13 to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football. Here are three Packers to blame.

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug 8, 2023--

The reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year is off to a slow start in terms of corralling opposing quarterbacks this season.

A growing number of Capitol rioters are facing hefty fines on top of prison sentences at their sentencing hearings

A judge has ruled that Hunter Biden must appear in person for a hearing where he is expected to plead not guilty to federal firearms charges filed after the collapse of a plea deal in a long-running federal investigation

Tallulah Willis has previously spoken openly about her battles with eating disorders, body dysmorphia, sobriety, and depression

In May, Michael Strahan teased a career move outside ‘GMA’, which he mentioned could be the 'biggest opportunity' for him

The operator of the wrecked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant will start releasing treated but still slightly radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean as early as Thursday

Florida's first lady made her first solo public appearance on July 6, in Johnston, Iowa, to support her husband's White House bid

BEIJING Two major cities in eastern China lifted all curbs on home purchases and selling on Monday, joining

CAIRO The United Nations envoy to Sudan warned on Monday of the growing "ethnicisation" of the military conflict