FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and best bets at TPC Southwind this week with an outright, Top 10, One and Done, and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.
The start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is here on the PGA Tour and the first stop is TPC Southwind in Memphis for the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship. One of the staples on tour every year is in its second season a playoff event and the Top 70 players from the regular season are now ready to compete for monster paydays on the line.
Will Zalatoris, who picked up his first win at the FedEx St. Jude last year, remains on the shelf with an injury and won't be able to defend his title. That makes our PGA Tour expert picks all the more interesting as it's two straight champions who aren't in the field (Abraham Ancer, the 2021 champion, is now with LIV Golf). So where do we look?
Hopefully we keep looking at winners. While our outright and One and Done picks last week both missed the cut, we were still all over the top of the leaderboard with Russell Henley as an easy Top 10 and Billy Horschel for a Top 20 as a +360 winner, putting us up +3.4 units overall for our picks last week.
We're staying hot as we go into our FedEx St. Jude Championship picks for this week at TPC Southwind.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through Wyndham Championship: 46-132-2, +12.756 units (3-46 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | +3.4 units at Wyndham)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $8,653,050.65 (Alex Smalley at Wyndham, $0)
PGA Tour expert picks for FedEx St. Jude Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Top 10 Pick for the FedEx St. Jude Championship: JT Poston (+450, DraftKings)
JT Poston is on an absolute heater, finishing in the Top 10 in four of his last five starts, the one miss there being a T41 at The Open Championship. He's gaining 0.6 strokes or more on approach, around the green, and putting over his last 20 rounds. The off-the-tee game is a bit down with his lack of distance but he can put it together. For a player in this form who hasn't finished worse than T30 in his last three starts at Southwind, I love the number on him to crack the Top 10 and maintain this heater.
Pick to Win the FedEx St. Jude Championship (0.5 Units): Viktor Hovland (+2000)
One of my big storylines this year has been Viktor Hovland, who I've long lauded the talent of, leveling up in the biggest events. He was in the mix in three of the four major championships this year and won the Memorial. That's a guy who is clearly finding his groove. Southwind is all about ball striking and Hovland is among the best in the world tee-to-green. He's also improved in each of his three starts at this event. I think he shows that he's leveled up again with a win this week.
Iain MacMillan's pick to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Coming Soon
One and Done Pick for the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Hideki Matsuyama
As I've mentioned already, we are running low on bullets for the One and Done, especially when it comes to top players in the playoffs. We'll cover more on Hideki Matsuyama shortly, but I love him this week and he's one of the guys I'm confident in taking in this tournament who is still available to me.
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and best bets
Lucas Glover to finish Top 20 (+200, DraftKings)
Oftentimes, I'm quick to dismiss a player who just won last week, which is what we saw from Lucas Glover at the Wyndham. I'm not afraid of it in this spot, though, especially for only a Top 20. Glover is gaining two strokes with his ball striking over the last 20 rounds and has three Top 10s (including the win) in his last four starts. More importantly, the broomstick putter has seemingly done wonders for him on the green. This is a ball-striker's course and Glover is that, so I'm on him to follow up a win with another great finish.
Hideki Matsuyama to finish Top 10 (+350, DraftKings)
Here's the bit on Hideki. Matsuyama didn't play the St. Jude last year but he had finished T2 (a playoff loss) in 2021 along with a T20 the year prior too. More importantly, though, his ball striking is there, gaining more than 1.1 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds. The short game is worrisome but also colored by just an awful two rounds at Sedgefield. I think he rebounds at a place where he's played extremely well and can cash this Top 10.
Brian Harman and Rickie Fowler to both finish Top 20 (Odds TBD)
Let's be real: Top 20 odds at a tournament where there are only 70 players in the field aren't the best. So we're going with a cheeky parlay that includes Open Champion Brian Harman and Rickie Fowler. Harman hasn't played since dominating at Royal Liverpool but we saw his ball striking form and accuracy in addition to him finishing T3 here last week. Moreover, Fowler has played well at TPC Southwind when he was in form years ago, and now is coming in with the great form he's shown all year. This feels like a nice way to boost the odds, though obviously a bit risky.
Longshot pick to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship (0.1 Units): Alex Smalley (+15000)
Alex Smalley killed us last week with a missed cut that shouldn't have happened. He's still gaining 1.20 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds with a good driver on top of that. The short game has been the hot-cold factor that has been both a gift and a curse. If it's a gift, though, he's striking the ball well enough to make some noise at the FedEx St. Jude.
