Euro-zone consumers’ inflation expectations dropped to the lowest since 2016 in a gauge compiled by the European Commission, suggesting price increases aren’t becoming entrenched in the economy.
The measure fell to 6.1 in June, down from 12.1 the prior month, according to the release published in Brussels on Thursday. The index reflects survey responses on households’ views of where inflation will be in a year’s time.
The news will provide reassurance to the European Central Bank, which has made such measures a central plank of its policy monitoring as it tries to bring consumer prices under control.
“We must ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored as the wage catch-up process plays out,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday. “While we do not currently see a wage-price spiral or a de-anchoring of expectations, the longer inflation remains above target, the greater such risks become.”
The survey outcome arrived on the eve of data that may show an acceleration in core consumer-price increases, which are still well above the ECB’s 2% target.
Numbers released on Thursday have shown mixed signals so far. While Spanish inflation slowed below 2%, data from German states point to quickening price increases before a national report is released later in the day.
“Without for a moment being fatalistic, we shouldn’t underestimate the downside risks we confront,” Paschal Donohoe, president of the Eurogroup, which brings together euro-area finance ministers, told the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament on Thursday.
“Our immediate priority is really clear: We have to reduce inflation, while preserving financial stability and growth,” he added.
Another ECB interest-rate hike in July is a “fait accompli,” Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Wednesday. Officials are now publicly debating whether a further move at their subsequent decision in September will also be warranted.
--With assistance from Jorge Valero.
(Updates with comments from Eurogroup president starting in seventh paragraph.)
