Is David Ross's job secure for 2024?
This, like most questions having to do with the Chicago Cubs 2023 offseason, is complicated. Currently, the Cubs boast a 65-60 record and sit second in the NL Central, 3.5 games back from the leading Milwaukee Brewers. If the season were to end today, the Cubs would be a postseason team by way of a Wild Card slot.
Ross has led his team on a good turnaround that proved the team put together this offseason was built to win. Pieces started to click, and the team was performing better.
But as good as things are now, fans at Wrigley are impatient and no doubt have the early-season woes front of mind. The Cubs return to glory has been triumphant this year, but only because they came out of the gates slowly in the first place.
How much of that falls on Ross? And do the Cubs find him reliable enough to avoid a similar fate at the start of next season?
Fans are currently frustrated with Ross's recent decision to keep Drew Smyly in the starting rotation despite his excellence as a relief pitcher.
Smyly came in as the closer in his last two appearances prior to Tuesday and has been used in both a starter and relief capacity throughout the last several weeks.
On Tuesday, Ross rolled Smyly out as the starter again against the lowly Detroit Tigers, and he gave up seven earned runs, striking out four batters and walking three in 3.2 innings. The Tigers, notably, are bottom-two in runs per game this season in MLB.
Looking at his splits paints a clear picture: As a starter, he has a 5.40 ERA, as a reliever, 4.09. His WHIP is a tenable 1.182 out of the bullpen but a ghastly 1.438 as a starter. Most telling is his strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is 2.55 as a starter and 4.67 as a reliever.
Now, Smyly has only pitched 11 innings out of the 'pen this year, so the small sample size doesn't make the results all that convincing just yet. But it's enough to make you wonder, and certainly, one would think that a manager seeing it work this well would do whatever he can to keep it rolling.
After all, baseball is about rhythm and consistency, right?
Ross said he felt that Smyly deserved some grace since it was his first start back, and that he doesn't see a path long-term to keeping him in the bullpen because he isn't sure who would take his place in the rotation.
That feels like precisely what Ross's job is to figure out. Instead, Smyly will be a starter.
Managing a team is complicated, and in a vacuum, this incident is small and not notable. Plus, with the trade deadline in the rearview, the Cubs don't have many options to backfill Smyly's role as a rotation man.
Whether these small, questionable moments with Ross's managing style accumulate to be enough to get him sent packing will be the question.
Ultimately, his fate is likely to return. Before their turnaround, his firing was reported as unlikely, and now that they've proven they can win under Ross, he has likely earned even more trust with the organization.
Barring an implosion and the Cubs missing the postseason, I think it's highly unlikely Ross isn't back at the helm with Chicago in 2024.
Late rumors on Pete Alonso interest makes him a logical offseason pursuit
According to the latest MLB rumors, the Cubs and NL Central rivals Milwaukee Brewers were engaged in discussions around Mets first baseman Pete Alonso ahead of the trade deadline. The Mets became the sellers to end all sellers this season, but mostly traded away pitching.
There is a thought that Alonso, who is a free agent in 2025, could be the next to go since his team control ends before New York expects to get back to an all-out run at a World Series trophy. For now, the Mets find themselves in prospect acquisition mode, which makes Alonso a logical asset to consider trading.
The Cubs interest in Alonso figures to remain if he's still available for trade in the winter. Chicago's first base role has been subpar throughout the season. The team signed Trey Mancini this offseason after he won a World Series with the Astros in 2022. He tumbled dramatically and was cut by the team not long ago.
Cody Bellinger, thankfully, has experience at the position and has filled in, but the Cubs would prefer to have a dedicated player there. Alonso would be more than suitable, bringing a high-slug bat to the lineup and power that Chicago would love to have.
Ultimately, Alonso, if made available, will probably be an expensive trade target that attracts a number of teams. Price may keep the Cubs away depending on other areas that they look to invest in.
Cody Bellinger return interest still appears to be mutual
The individual feel-good story of the Cubs 2023 season is easily Cody Bellinger. Bellinger signed a one-year deal with the Cubs largely to rehabilitate his image and prove he could still hack it on the offensive end after a bummer of a few years with the Dodgers.
Bellinger tumbled about as far as one can in MLB without finding himself out of the game altogether. After winning NL MVP in 2019, his OPS+ fell to 44 in 2021 and 81 in 2021. This year, his OPS+ has jumped to 143, which essentially means his OPS is 43 percent better than the league average.
The Cubs were wise to give him a one-year deal. At the time, Bellinger's success was unproven and there needed to be a time-driven incentive for him to prove what he could do. Now, however, he's done that, and the Cubs would love to keep him in Chicago beyond the contract they currently have him on.
After he looked like a likely outgoing trade piece when the Cubs were losing, he has now become a potential long-standing asset for the team to take with it into the future... That is, if they can re-sign him. So where do things stand?
A recent Cubs mailbag from Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic addressed that topic.
Unfortunately, for now, there's no big change. Mooney said that the Cubs are still expected to be involved (subscription required) in the Bellinger sweepstakes, but it's far from a certainty that he will re-sign.
Bellinger has been complimentary of the team and dropped hints that he'd like to return, but in an open market, the Cubs best offer could be beaten, especially with plenty of teams having a need for a two-way player in the outfield like Bellinger.
This is Bellinger's last chance at a big, long-term deal. It would make sense for him to prioritize the best offer, even if he prefers to stay in Chicago.
Mooney did say Bellinger will, "strongly," consider Chicago's best offer, and points out that the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere so long as Chicago makes him a qualifying offer. So, they won't see him walk for absolutely nothing.
Chicago should try, but they need to have a backup plan ready.
