After struggling in his most recent start, giving up six runs, Chicago Cubs right-hander Justin Steele's odds of winning the NL Cy Young have significantly fallen.
Steele gave up six runs in 6.0 innings on Friday against the Diamondbacks, which included seven hits and two walks, raising his ERA from 2.49 to 2.73. While it seemed like a close race, Padres ace Blake Snell has been on fire recently and now holds the ERA title at 2.43. Most sportsbooks now are giving odds on Snell to win the award at -600 while also giving Steele odds of +400.
Snell has previously won a Cy Young award with the Rays in 2018, but hasn't been healthy enough for the full season recently, and has finally put everything together in a contract year. Steele has been a good pitcher all season long but also has a major disadvantage, starting two fewer games than Snell.
The Padres have around 13 games left, meaning that Snell could pitch between two or three more times this season, which could be an advantage to Steele if Snell gives up runs. Snell has been able to limit hits in 2023 with 6.0 per nine innings but has massively struggled with 5.0 walks per nine innings.
There is still a path for Steele, but the odds of winning the NL Cy Young are a bit slim still. But let's compare these two candidates to see who really should have the edge -- and what each brings to the table on the mound.
Justin Steele: Cy Young case, pitch arsenal
Justin Steele has been one of the best pitchers in MLB in 2023. His best pitch has been his four-seam fastball, which he uses 62.7% of the time. This pitch has massively improved from last season and has been the main contributor to being in the Cy Young race with a Run-Value of 18.
His fastball is the fourth-best in MLB, behind only Gerrit Cole, Zac Gallen, and Luis Castillo, all of whom have garnered their own share of praise. The confusing part is that Steele's four-seam fastball only registers on average at 91.8 MPH, showing that speed isn't everything.
Steele also has four other pitches in his arsenal, which are a slider, a sinker, a changeup, and a curveball. However, he uses the sinker, changeup, and curveball less than 2% of the time, while using the slider as his strikeout pitch at a 33.8% rate. With his slider, he's gotten a strikeout 33.7% of the time when the plate appearance ends in an out.
Blake Snell: Cy Young case, pitch arsenal
Snell has probably been the best pitcher in 2023. While he uses his four-seam fastball 49.1% of the time, it's actually his worst pitch. Snell has been dominating hitters with his curveball in 2023, with an opponent average of .083, meaning it's the best curveball average-wise in all of MLB. He only uses his curveball 18.9% of the time, mostly as a strikeout pitch, when ending a plate appearance he has a strikeout rate of 62.7%.
He also throws a changeup 18.2% of the time with an opponent average of .198. His final pitch is his second-best, a slider with a usage rate of 13.8%. But Snell has an opponent batting average of .123 with the slider while ending in strikeouts 41.5% of the time.
NL Cy Young Race: Justin Steele or Blake Snell?
Snell and Steele both deserve a Cy Young award for their amazing 2023 seasons, but Steele's recent struggles seem to hurt his chances of winning. While he can still come back and win it against Snell, it seems unlikely this late in the season. However, Steele will have a postseason run with the Cubs as the Padres will all but assuredly fall short.
While Steele also holds a better win-loss record at 16-4 versus Snell's 14-9, voters don't vote on wins anymore -- they instead choose ERA, innings pitched and other metrics, all of which give Snell the edge.
