By Gabriel Burin
Brazil likely registered mild deflation in June in monthly terms from lower fuel costs and cheaper foodstuffs, adding to the case for a potential start of a monetary easing cycle awaited by global investors as soon as next month, a Reuters poll showed.
The probable drop, to be confirmed in a release due Tuesday, would be the first since September, the last month in a brief period of falling consumer prices that was interrupted after the election of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in October.
An inflation cool-off would catch global attention as a lead for future trends in other top economies, possibly allowing Banco Central do Brasil to unwind a hawkish approach of the kind the U.S. Federal Reserve is still pursuing.
Consumer prices measured by the IPCA index likely fell 0.10% in June vs May, according to the median estimate of 13 economists polled July 5-7. On a yearly basis, inflation is seen decelerating further to 3.20%, its lowest since September 2020.
"What is pushing down the headline figure is a drop in fuel and cooking gas prices, in addition to a continuous cooling of wholesale food costs due to the record harvest in the first quarter," analysts at 4intelligence said.
Motorists are seeing relief at pump stations following a raft of gasoline price cuts by Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras, which is changing its pricing strategy to smooth fuel cost swings.
Meanwhile, food prices remain under downward pressure as the country experiences an agricultural boom that is now turning into a threat for U.S. corn export dominance and overflowing Argentina with soybeans as Brazil's neighbour own crop dwindles.
Looking forward, the prospect for inflation in Latin America's No. 1 economy keeps improving slowly, with market consensus pointing at a 4.98% clip for 2023 according to a central bank survey, under 5.36% at the beginning of this year.
But this would still exceed the official goal of 3.25% plus a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down, in what would become the third consecutive year of overshooting. Last week, the government set the target at 3% for 2026, in line with the goals for 2024 and 2025.
The decision to aim at a relatively low inflation rate in the longer term, combined with a surprising appreciation of the local currency this year, could reinforce the moderation of consumers prices and bring their variation closer to target.
The main risk is the evolution of the primary deficit under Lula's government plans to expand welfare spending, particularly after Congress delayed a vote on a fiscal framework seen as a key commitment to maintain expenditures in check.
(Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin; editing by David Evans)
