When the Toronto Blue Jays head down south to face the Texas Rangers for a weekend series, Game 1 will feature two very good veteran pitchers coming off very bad outings. Kevin Gausman comes into this one with a 3.12 ERA in 14 starts with a record of 5-3. On the other side Martin Perez is 6-2, but with an ugly 4.67 ERA after that rough start last time he took the mound.
Both starters will be looking to bounce back in the first of what could be a big series in the American League playoff picture in mid-June. Let's take a look at the odds.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers odds run line and total
Blue Jays vs. Rangers prediction and pick
Last time out, Kevin Gausman had a very good matchup against the Twins, the team that leads the league in strikeouts, but he only had four strikeouts over 4.2 innings with four walks, seven hits, and six runs allowed. Gausman has a 93rd percentile strikeout rate along with an 89th percentile chase rate. Texas is 15th in the MLB in strikeouts this season and have a chase rate well below league average at 26% as a team, so Gausman might need to find a different way to get outs.
If Texas doesn't chase, it could be another tough outing for Gausman. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball, but a 3.47 expected ERA and hard hit rate of 45.5% is a big concern against the Rangers lineup that has a lot of power throughout.
Martin Perez has been much worse than Gausman this season, but he could be set up better for success despite a 4.90 FIP. The Blue Jays have a lot of pop from the right-side in their lineup with Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. but they are 22nd in OPS against lefties and their 11 home runs are 30th.
Gausman is the better starting pitcher, but with the worse matchup, so because of the discipline of Texas's lineup and the lack of power against lefties from Toronto, I'll take Texas in the opening game at home.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+130)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
