The Atlanta Braves were a massive disappointment this postseason. Winning just one playoff game is unacceptable for the offense that was heralded as quite possibly the deepest in MLB history. Atlanta must make changes this offseason instead of sitting on its hands, a route they more or less took last season after being knocked out by the Phillies.
The key areas of need are starting pitching and left field. Eddie Rosario could be retained, but the team has a club option and can do far better than his wildly up-and-down bat in free agency this winter. The team could lose Charlie Morton to retirement or leaving his option on the table, but would be wise to pull in a new starting pitcher either way.
The World Series is a great time to get a look at who can perform at the highest level when the lights are brightest, perhaps bringing experience to Atlanta that will help from a complete October shutdown. Snagging players from the two best teams with deep postseason experience would be wise on Alex Anthopoulos's part.
If he scouts these teams, these are the players he should be honing in on.
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks
Lourdes Gurriel at first glance appears to be an only marginal upgrade over Eddie Rosario in left field, looking just at their 2023 stats. There are a few reasons why he's worth considering even if his ceiling might be lower than what Rosario was in 2020 for the Braves.
For one, most of the MLB seems to need a left field upgrade this offseason. Few high-quality starters are going to be available at a tenable price, and Gurriel very well may prove to be one of the most cost-effective options.
Secondly, he beats out Rosario in a crucial area: Consistency. Gurriel has never had an OPS+ lower than 100 (meaning he has always been, at worst, an average hitter) whereas Rosario has had three below-average seasons in the last five years.
You'll lose a bit of fielding effectiveness with Gurriel compared to Rosario, but my guess is the plate production will more than backfill the slight hindrance in defensive ability. Let's be honest, it's not like Rosario was an elite defender, either, marked just slightly above average in outs above average.
SP Andrew Heaney, Rangers
Andrew Heaney has a $13 million option he's likely to decline to enter the open market this offseason. While he may prove a tad pricy depending on how the market views him after this postseason, he's a strong starting arm that the Braves could bring in to backfill someone like Charlie Morton, should he retire or have his option declined. Perhaps most important is that Heaney has, at times, played a bullpen role, too, so he may be a more versatile player available to the Braves this offseason than other options.
Heaney's free agent market is tough to get a good handle on. Spotrac projects he'll cost about $13.75 million next year, which seems fair. That market level may ultimately find him simply picking up his player option to return to Arlington next season.
While Heaney performed well last season, his 2023 has been up and down. He landed just above average in ERA but had a high 1.378 WHIP. Save for one game this postseason, his appearances have been mostly effective on the mound.
Heaney is a three-pitch pitcher, mostly relying on a four-seamer with a slider and changeup at 25 and 17 percent usage, respectively.
Heaney has also been a somewhat perplexing pitcher over the years as far as talent assessment is concerned:
Reputationally, he is a brand name for mostly the right reasons. So he must be good, right? But he has just one sub-1.3 WHIP season the last five, and his propensity to get batters out in the air instead of on the ground leaves him liable to have to work out of trouble at times.
In general, not a bad pitcher to look at signing, but there's likely a better one available from the Rangers...
SP Jordan Montgomery, Rangers
Jordan Montgomery is going to get a big pay-day this offseason, which could prohibit the Braves from being big players here. But Montgomery's ascension might be worth buying into still. Montgomery has been on the move the last few seasons going from the New York Yankees to St. Louis Cardinals to, mid-season this year, the Texas Rangers.
Montgomery surely would like somewhere to plant his feet finally. Why not Georgia?
Once Montgomery found himself pitching for a team with quality pieces around him, he has instantly become a clearly high-level pitcher.
Spotrac projects Montgomery getting a $18.41 million average annual value contract. Is that out of Atlanta's range? Possibly, but Montgomery has been remarkably consistent and appears to be a winner. The cost could very well be justifiable if he wants to come help the Braves win a title.
Montgomery's 22 quality starts this year were fourth-most in baseball. Keep in mind, he had the Cardinals defense behind him for most of the year.
LF Tommy Pham
Why not look to steal a former division rival in Tommy Pham to fill the need at left field? Pham has taken the late postseason narrative by the horns and become a clear main character in it all. In a Game 2 win, Pham put the bat on the ball for four hits, including two doubles, and only skirted his chance at the record for most World Series hits by a single player to get his teammate a chance.
So, not only does he perform, but he's also just a dang-good human? That should be music to the Braves front office's ears.
Pham has racked up 33 hits this postseason, 9 RBI. MLB.com pointed out that his three postseason games with at least four hits is tied with Albert Pujols for the most in postseason history. Atlanta's bats going so cold in the NLDS against the Phillies proved one of the priorities should be players who play up to the challenge in October. Pham fits that bill.
Atlanta is familiar with Pham, who played for the New York Mets before getting traded to the Arizona Cardinals.
Pham presents the same challenges as Gurriel in that he wasn't an elite left fielder defensively, rating -2 in outs above average this season. He struggled in particular with left-handed batters, going -3 in OAA against lefties while defending exactly average against righties.
His bat should more than make up for it. Pham has put up five 100-hit seasons since 2018, Rosario has produced three such seasons. Furthermore, Pham is a power hitter with a 93rd percentile exit velocity, Rosario is 36th percent. Plate discipline is better, too, an area Rosario struggled. Rosario was in the second percentile in chase rate and 23rd percentile in whiff rate. Pham is 89th and 60th percentile, respectively.
Pham isn't perfect, but he also should come relatively inexpensive. He's projected for a little over $8 million by Spotrac, less than Rosario made this season. Plus, you know you're getting a hot postseason bat, something he's been known for in stops with multiple teams now.
