With nine minutes left in the fourth quarter, ESPN's model gave the New Orleans Saints a 97.1% chance of winning their Week 3 matchup over the Green Bay Packers. Holding a 17-point lead, it sure felt like a lock.
Less than a quarter later, the game ends with the Packers having 18 points on the board, the Saints 17. Saints lose, and the Packers stage all their scoring in one quarter and decimate the Saints confidence.
Jordan Love, who looked slow to start, gained confidence as the game went on and delivered well-placed passes in the fourth quarter. He proved to be every bit the winner agaainst a capable defense for his first home start of the year.
But let's look at the Saints. Their first loss of the year was a devastating one not only because it's their first tally in the L column, but also because Derek Carr left the game, entered the blue tent, and is now heading to a hospital for a shoulder injury. Carr, signed this offseason, is believed to be the winning QB the Saints have wanted since Drew Brees retired.
Though the Saints looked dominant for most of it, things to consider:
- The Saints scored 10 points on offense
- The Packers were without their lead receiving weapon, Christian Watson
- The Packers were without their lead rushing option, Aaron Jones
- The Bears scored more points in Week 1 against the Packers than the Saints did in Week 3
Sorry, folks, but I just can't be optimistic about this one.
Alontae Taylor was considered as a player to blame for this list because he gave up both a pass interference (44 yards) and a big catch (30 yards) to Jayden Reed. But his sack and quality coverage for most of the game earned him positive marks, even if his low moments came in the most crucial moments. The Reed catch, as well, was more a great offensive play than a defensive lapse:
Let's look at the three most to blame figures in the Saints organization.
Ryan Ramczyk and Eric McCoy
We'll package right tackle Ryan Ramczyk and center Eric McCoy for this one. Both players find themselves to blame for similar reasons, with both historically reliable veteran line members looking completely out of sorts on Sunday afternoon.
It hasn't just been this game, Carr has been pressured and hit far more than Saints fans would like, 11 times in three games this year.
Early in the game, McCoy looked like a turnstile and let a defender through with ease. It should never look this easy.
Later, Ramczyk gave up the sack that earned Carr his ticket out of the game and into the hospital. While that may have been in part an accumulation of the two sacks he took earlier in the game, Ramzyck also allowed pressure when Jameis Winston entered the game under center later on.
Both lineman were miserable, a frustrating sight when other, younger players like Trevor Penning are outplaying them.
Isaac Yiadom
Part of the blame here has to go on the Saints coaching, because Isaac Yiadom was targeted all game, matched up on Romeo Doubs, and the Saints paid for it frequently, especially in the fourth quarter. Refusing to mix that up was a problem.
Remember, the Packers didn't even have Christian Watson, their lead receiver, in the mix.
Yiadom was a non-factor in coverage for most of the game, giving up plenty of yardage. But what ultimately lands him on this list is a pass interference he gave up on the drive that eventually got the Packers within six points.
After Alontae Taylor gave up 44 yards on pass interference the play before, Yiadom gave up another 22 yards where he was penalized for pass interference and holding on the same play (the holding was declined).
A rough count shows Yiadom, between passes and penalties, gave the Packers at least 60 yards, a shade under 25 percent of the entire passing yardage for the Packers on the afternoon.
Not inspiring in the slightest.
Mickey Loomis
Mickey Loomis traded Will Lutz to the Denver Broncos just before the season started. In exchange, the Saints got a 2024 second-round pick and Blake Grupe was elevated to the starting kicker role.
Grupe, with an opportunity to get the Saints the lead with less than two minutes remaining, missed a 45-yard field goal. It solidified the loss.
Certainly, it's a kick Lutz may have missed, too. He has yet to attempt a kick in the 40-49 yard range this year, in preseason or the regular season. Historically, though, Lutz is a good kicker who has made clutch kicks. He is 56-of-68 from 40-49 yards, and 73-of-98 of all kicks 40 yards or more.
It might be unfair, but the trade that didn't make sense when it was made makes far less sense when the Saints lose a one-point game in large part due to a late missed kick. It's easy to theorize a story where the Saints win this one if Lutz is still on the squad.
Instead, Lutz is getting a 70-burger put on his team in Miami.
