The Philadelphia Phillies have flipped things on their head in the National League Divisional Series, snatching home-field advantage from the Atlanta Braves and making fans so upset they threw trash on their home field.
Plenty of work is yet to be done, but Philly now has equal odds to the Braves as the most likely NL team to win the World Series. After going to the title series and losing to the Houston Astros last season, this would be a great redemption for the now perenially-feared Wild Card team.
Though there are plenty of games yet to be played, these three players -- notably, all pitchers -- may not return for the years ahead in Philly. It could be their last chance of hoisting a trophy with the franchise.
Craig Kimbrel
Craig Kimbrel was added as a savvy one-year add to the bullpen this winter. Kimbrel's performance with Philly has been frankly up and down, with the first two months and last two months featuring some dud performances short of the dominant, reliable arm the Phillies thought they were getting when they added him to the pen.
Kimbrel, in June and July, showed he still can be the strong reliever he's expected to be, and some team will use that as evidence for reasoning around giving him a sizable contract to gamble on him returning completely to form in 2024.
Philly can't be as risky with its offseason signings and should look elsewhere to backfill his role -- perhaps even internally -- in the relief category. If Kimbrel takes a discount, maybe this is a different story, but he can likely still command a sizable paycheck after years of consistent play preceding this one.
After three straight years of two or fewer games in which Kimbrel gave up three earned runs or fewer, this year featured three such performances from Kimbrel, as well as a near-career low in strikeouts per nine innings.
One short stop for Kimbrel in Philly is my prediction.
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola is in his ninth year with the Phillies, so perhaps some good will with the franchise will bring him back when he hits free agency this winter.
Nola was a winner for the Phillies this year with an about-average ERA and a slightly worse FIP and WHIP than he normally posts. After flexing Cy Young potential in 2022 with a ridiculous 8.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Nola took a step back this year with a 4.49.
The Phillies may see an opportunity to retool with a younger pitcher, and Nola could very well get stronger offers from teams desperate to bolster their rotation.
This, though, could depend on how dominant Nola can be, precisely, in the remainder of the postseason. In the closeout game of the Wild Card Nola proved that he can win even if his stats aren't gaudy, holding the Marlins to no runs despite only striking out three batters in seven full innings.
Nola's length (average of 6.04 innings per outing this year) is one big reason to bring him back, if the Phillies are looking for one. But ultimately, hard to see Nola not fielding better offers from other teams.
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen's 2023 came seemingly out of nowhere. In his ninth season, Lorenzen hadn't become a ubiquitous name among casual MLB fans, but dazzled with the Detroit Tigers this year and quickly became a piece discussed in trades as the deadline came close while Detroit faded from the competition early.
Lorenzen was acquired by the Phillies and on the whole, pitched worse than he did in Detroit, but notched a no-hitter, the highlight of his very good season. After that, though, he had two games with six earned runs and three with four.
Philly used him out of the bullpen in the two Wild Card games which may signal they believe he's not one of their starters moving forward. While the playoffs are much more strategic and situational, other teams will give him a clearer path to full-time starting.
Lorenzen is a one-year rental in Philly, and while they'd like to bring him back, this year has given his free agency case plenty of marketing to work with. He'll command a pretty penny in free agency that Philly simply may not be able to match.
Unless they have an idea in mind for Lorenzen like turning him into Shohei Ohtani-lite, they'll likely let him walk.
