The Los Angeles Lakers' ability to navigate a tricky offseason will determine their ability to compete for a championship next season.
The Lakers finished the regular season as the No. 7 seed, but that finish was always misleading. After the trade deadline, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers were playing at a 57-win pace. The No. 1 seed Nuggets won 53 games.
This was very much a real contender. Davis was the best defender in the playoffs. LeBron is old, but he's still a singular athletic phenom and the greatest basketball mind of his generation. Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Dennis Schroder — the supporting cast, also quite good when it counted.
Those pesky Nuggets ultimately dispatched LA in the conference finals, but the Lakers' season was anything but a failure. Especially when one considers where it started, with Russell Westbrook being demoted to the bench and a brand new head coach in the driver's seat.
Now, can the Lakers keep that positive momentum in the summer?
Lakers bold offseason prediction: Austin Reaves will not return
The Lakers have the ability to match offer sheets for Austin Reaves, who is a restricted free agent. The Lakers very publicly want to keep Reaves, who was tremendous after the All-Star break before elevating his performance level even more in the playoffs.
Thing is, another team will give Reaves a big offer sheet. Possibly in the range of four years and $90-100 million. The Lakers could pay that, but LeBron James and Anthony Davis are already under max contracts. The new CBA makes it very difficult to built out expensive rosters. To make matters even more complicated, Rui Hachimura is also a restricted free agent.
Rob Pelinka and the front office should absolutely prioritize Reaves over Hachimura. But, Reaves is likely more expensive. Crafty secondary guards who explode in the postseason have gotten paid in recent summers. The Lakers may straight-up just not be able to afford Reaves' eventual price point.
Lakers bold offseason prediction: No splashy move
The Lakers, by their nature, are connected to every splashy potential free agent in the league. Kyrie Irving has been the talk of the town since he demanded a trade out of Brooklyn. The Lakers ultimately didn't trade for him and now the Dallas Mavericks are trying to re-sign him. All signs point to Kyrie staying in Central Texas — and he's even trying to convince LeBron to join him.
It's a not-so-bold prediction to say LeBron won't join Irving in Dallas, but with Irving off the board, what other big-splash options are there for Los Angeles? Well, now there's Chris Paul. The Suns are reportedly considering either trading, waiving, or stretching the 38-year-old.
Paul is LeBron's close friend and he will want to compete for a title next season, no matter the outcome. The Lakers can't match Paul's contract in a trade. Paul could accept a discount to join the Lakers as a free agent, but frankly it seems far more likely that Paul would accept that discount from the Suns. He has grown close to Devin Booker and there has to be some measure of confidence in Kevin Durant's first full season with the team leading to a different outcome.
So, no Irving and no Paul. The Lakers are going to strike out on the big names, if there's even interest in the first place. Los Angeles will instead focus on retaining its own players and fleshing out the roster with inexpensive role players.
If Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, and Austin Reaves aren't on the team, the Lakers will need a starting guard…
Lakers bold offseason prediction: D'Angelo Russell welcomed back
This would not be viewed favorably by the Lakers' fanbase. D'Angelo Russell was quite poor in the playoffs. He was borderline unplayable in the Denver series, to the point where he lost his spot in the starting lineup. But the Lakers will have to make difficult decisions based on the financial landscape of the NBA.
Let's lay it all out again: Paul and Irving are off the table. Reaves gets paid too much and bolts for greener pastures. The Lakers can re-sign Dennis Schroder around the veteran minimum, but he's not good enough to be the only full-time point guard on the team. Russell, for all his postseason woe, was very productive in the regular season: 17.8 points and 6.2 assists on .469/.396/.829 splits.
The Lakers should be able to keep Russell on a discount. There's just no market for him. The teams with cap space are rebuilding and won't want to invest long-term money in Russell. Any contender should be wary about spending too much after Russell's playoff run. Any hypothetical sign-and-trade is unlikely. The Mavs don't want him for Irving; the Suns won't want him for Paul. Toronto for Fred VanVleet sounds nice on paper, but why does Toronto want Russell?
The Lakers can let Russell eat minutes in the regular season and hope alternatives emerge once the postseason arrives (the alternative might be handing the starting reigns to Dennis Schroder again). Russell is probably better than his strongest detractors suggest, but his name carries more weight than his on-court impact at this point. If the Lakers can strike the proper balance with a reasonable contract extension, in the absence of better options, Russell will be back with the team.
