FIBA Europe swept FIBA America today, as Serbia and Germany both came out on top over Canada and Team USA respectively. This means Team USA will miss out on the gold medal for the second straight FIBA World Cup, the first time this has happened since 2002 and 2006.
With the gold and bronze medal match-ups set, here are three takeaways from today's games.
Three Points: Serbia's gameplan was executed flawlessly, Team USA never addressed their weaknesses, and key questions for Paris 2024
Can anyone stop Bogdan Bogdanovic and Serbia?
One week ago, Bogdan Bogdanovic shot 1/13 from three and Serbia blew a 16-point second-half lead in a loss to Italy, putting themselves at risk of not qualifying for the quarterfinals. It's hard to believe it's the same team that has since eliminated Lithuania and Canada by a combined margin of victory of 28 points.
Serbia beat Lithuania by executing a perfect game plan, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Today against Canada, they did the same. It started with slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who Serbian head coach Svetislav Pesic said is, "one of the best players I've watched in my career."
Serbia's point guards - Stefan Jovic and Aleksa Avramovic - did a brilliant job. They forced Gilgeous-Alexander left, made sure he met multiple defenders in every pick-and-roll, rotated brilliantly to cut off the roll man, and made it clear to Canada that RJ Barrett and Dillon Brooks would have to win today's game for them. They weren't up to the task.
Gilgeous-Alexander shot his lowest amount of field goal attempts in the tournament so far, eight, and Canada's lack of another player who can run their offense was drastically exposed. When Gilgeous-Alexander first sat out with just over three minutes to go in the first quarter, Canada led 13-12. By the end of the quarter, they trailed 23-15. This trend continued for Canada, which never found an adequate plan B.
Here are the other trends that continued: Bogdanovic got whatever he wanted, and Serbia's role players continued to make big plays whenever called upon. Bogdanovic finished with 23 points, and Canada had no idea how to contain him. So much for Dillon Brooks being the, "best perimeter defender in the league."
Bogdanovic was trailed by Ognjen Dobric and Nikola Milutinov who each finished with 16. Dobric's off-ball movement was next level today. As Bogdanovic started to establish himself and draw Canada's defense in, Dobric found the space and attacked it viciously. Whether it was back cuts towards the rim, open catch-and-shoot threes, or attacking closeouts Dobric reminded everyone today that he's one of the best two-dribble players in Europe.
The final x-factor for Serbia was Avramovic, who not only did a great job on Gilgeous-Alexander defensively, but also chipped in with 10 points off the bench. In his first stretch off the bench for Serbia he was plus-11 in just under four minutes. He, Jovic, Milutinov, Dobric, and pretty much all of Serbia's squad today made a statement that there's a lot of basketball talent outside of the NBA. A lot.
Germany comes at the king and does not miss
Team USA has had three glaring weaknesses since they played their first exhibition game this summer. A lack of size which makes it difficult for them to close out possessions, they struggle when defending shooters - either off movement or via closeouts, and they lack shooting gravity themselves. Germany exploited all three of these weaknesses today, and with it, they eliminated Team USA and are heading to the gold medal game.
Germany started two centers, Daniel Theis and Johannes Voigtmann, who ended up being responsible for six of their team's 12 offensive rebounds, and helped win the second-chance points battle by a margin of 25-8. This was also a huge threat in the pick-and-roll, particularly with teammate Dennis Schroder. The two of them have elite chemistry and combined for 38 points. Team USA tried to switch their pick-and-roll but that often gave Theis mismatch opportunities down low which he feasted on.
Germany's x-factor today though, was Andreas Obst. The Bayern Munich shooting guard led the team in scoring with 24 points and also picked up six assists. Team USA had no answer for his quick release and brilliance coming off of screens.
This is something Team USA has struggled with all summer. Whether it's a lack of skill or effort - it's probably both - they should be better at defending these actions, and shooters generally, but they're not. In today's loss and the one to Lithuania, they routinely seem to be either miscommunicating switches or going under screens on guys they should not be.
They have also been straight-up awful with their defensive closeouts. Frequently they are sprinting out to shooters and flying by them, trying to block the shot, instead of closing out and contesting while trying to force a drive instead. Germany didn't even shoot the lights out today as Lithuania did, they were 13-of-30 from three. Team USA was better, they were 12-of-25!
But they created more space with their shooting, and in turn, created more opportunities and capitalized on those opportunities. Team USA tried some adjustments, but they were ineffective, like trying to go box-and-one on Obst. Their offense also contributed to opportunities for Germany.
Team USA continued to pursue isolation opportunities above all else, even though Germany used a switch-all defensive scheme. Their offense was slow and led to long rebounds which Germany picked up in stride and turned into easy points at the other end. Anthony Edwards did impress with 23 points thanks to this approach on offense, but it wasn't enough. Germany got whatever they wanted today, including the win.
What does this mean for the 2024 Olympics in Paris?
Maybe head coach Steve Kerr and Team USA decided that there wasn't much they could do about their weaknesses, and perhaps talent will win out. That approach is tolerable for the FIBA World Cup, but it won't be next summer in Paris.
Team USA needs real centers on their team, not a guy whose best position is a power forward and who is now pretending to be a center. Joel Embiid is an international free agent and should be their first pick. But should the reigning MVP choose France instead, calls need to be placed to Bam Adebayo, Brook Lopez, Kevon Looney, and other conventional fives who can more than hold their own against European bigs.
Sure, if Team USA brings their best players they should win the gold medal. There's no denying that. But it's worth pointing out that Germany was without Maxi Kleber this summer. Fellow finalist Serbia is missing Nikola Jokic, Vasilije Micic, Aleksej Pokusevski, and a whole list of players that could form a team capable of winning gold. As Steve Kerr himself said today, "This is not 1992 anymore… It's not easy to win a World Cup or an Olympic game."
So maybe, next summer, build a roster that doesn't make it hard on you. Bring the personnel that puts you in the best position possible to win the gold medal, not just the best assemblage of talent that you can. If Team USA doesn't do that, they're asking to get beat.
2023 FIBA World Cup Line of the Day:
Andreas Obst's 24 points and seven assists. He was a killer.
2023 FIBA World Cup Play of the Day:
Anthony Edwards sent Johannes Voigtmann to buy a hot dog.
2023 FIBA World Cup Quote of the Day:
Nikola Jovic with a not-so-subtle jab at Dillon Brooks (pun intended).
What's coming tomorrow at the 2023 FIBA World Cup?
Nothing, see you Sunday! Team USA faces Canada at 4:30 a.m. ET and Serbia will face Germany at 8:40 a.m. ET. We're picking Serbia to take home the gold medal.
A final note here, there is a curse that comes with beating Team USA at the FIBA World Cup. Lithuania was eliminated in the quarterfinals. France lost in the semifinals in 2019, and Greece lost in the final in 2006. Germany will be up against it on Sunday.
