With every team in the NBA, besides the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers, sitting at one game played, we have a small window to delve into the smallest of NBA sample sizes. One game from an 82-game season is about as small a sample as you can get, but the information from one game still goes into a larger sample.
So instead of being scientific and waiting for all the data to be collected, or even a reasonable amount, let's overreact to 16 NBA games or 1.3 percent of the 2023-24 season sample and make some wild takes.
10. Cam Thomas, human microwave, wins Sixth Man of the Year
In the Brooklyn Nets opening night contest against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Cam Thomas erupted for 36 points in 25 minutes off the bench. If the Sixth Man of the Year award was given after one game, he'd win it and nab some down-ballot MVP votes in the process.
Thomas has always been a bucket, but the rest of his game has been so lacking that he could never eclipse the 20-minute-per-game marker. That changes this season. Thomas isn't suddenly a passing savant or a defensive plus, but his scoring is desperately needed on a Nets team with a ton of defensive options but few shot-creators.
The best predictor of Sixth Man of the Year is points per game off the bench, and Thomas has never seen a shot he doesn't like. If he can consistently hit 25-plus minutes a night, he'll rack up enough shots and points to claim the award. It won't always be efficient or helpful to winning, but he'll have enough volume and eruptions to claim the award.
9. Indiana Pacers set NBA record for offensive rating
The Indiana Pacers absolutely bludgeoned the Washington Wizards in their first game 143-120. Even in the high-scoring environment of 2020s NBA basketball, it's really hard to win by 20 when you surrender 120 points yourself, but the Pacers offense is just that good.
Last season, the Sacramento Kings set the NBA record for offensive efficiency at 119.4 points per 100 possessions, and their record will stand for a grand total of 12 months as the Pacers become the first team to eclipse 120 points per 100 possessions in a single season.
The Pacers have all the ingredients needed to be a record-setting offense. Tyrese Haliburton is an offensive savant, Rick Carlise is one of the best coaches in the league, they have shooting for days, and most importantly, they play at pace.
The Pacers' pace of 110.6 shows a team committed to transition opportunities, and no possession is better for juicing your offensive rating. Against the Wizards, they recorded 24 transition possessions, second most in the league, and generated 1.24 points per possession. As long as Haliburton stays healthy and the Pacers keep running, they'll have a chance to be a historic offense.
8. Chicago Bulls set the record for players-only meetings
After one game, the Chicago Bulls have already had an impromptu players-only meeting. There's no database for the official number of players-only meetings in one season, but the Bulls are currently on pace for 82. While they have little chance of setting any on-court records, they do have an opportunity to set the unofficial record for players-only meetings. Hopefully, they push for greatness in the only way they can, and by the end of the season, everyone is saying, "This could have just been an email."
7. The Orlando Magic produce a top-3 defense
Abra-kadabra-alakazam the Orlando Magic are the best defensive team in the league. While no one will confuse the Houston Rockets with the Indiana Pacers, holding any team to an offensive rating of 90.4 is cause for celebration.
The Magic were a mediocre defense last season, but they have the look of a scary unit. They have size and length at every position, jettisoned one of the worst defenders in the league last season in Bol Bol, and replaced him with a hopefully healthy Jonathan Isaac. While it's tough to project them as the best defense in the league, they're an early contender for that distinction, and finishing in the top 10 should be their baseline. The Magic are building something magical on the defensive end, and a top-three defense should be the result.
6. LeBron's minutes are must-wins for the Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers are 1-1 after a daunting opening two games against the defending Champion Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. Following their 12-point loss to the Nuggets, the world was doused in flames when it was revealed that for the entire season, LeBron James would be on a minutes restriction of sorts.
LeBron played exactly 29 minutes against the Nuggets, and the Lakers were plus-seven in his time on the court, meaning they were minus-19 in the 19 minutes he sat. In their game against the Phoenix Suns, the same pattern emerged. The Lakers were plus-22 with LeBron on the court and minus-17 when he sat. The only difference was he played 35 minutes, and the Lakers secured a five-point victory.
The Lakers are in a tough position. The Western Conference is absolutely brutal top to bottom, and they need to win every game possible, but LeBron is in year 21 and realistically shouldn't play 35 minutes a night. The Lakers need to win their minutes with LeBron on the court in a big way and pray they don't get blitzed when he sits. Right now, they're being outscored by 1.125 points every minute he sits. If that keeps up, either the Lakers will falter, or LeBron will be pushed to the physical brink.
5.The Warriors' new death lineup will feature Dario Saric at center
Ever since the Warriors emerged as a dynasty behind the world-destroying death lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala, the basketball media has always searched for the next iteration.
This season, after one game, it looks like their next death lineup will feature Dario Saric as a small-ball five when Draymond Green returns from an ankle injury. In their game-one loss to the Suns, he was plus-seven in 20 minutes, despite poor shooting splits.
The Warriors' core four of Curry, Thompson, Green, and Andrew Wiggins has proven to be a devastating unit, but the fifth Beatle has come and gone. Last season, it was Kevon Looney, but he leaves a little to be desired on the offensive end, and Saric should give them versatility to get back to their small-ball roots.
Before suffering an ACL injury, Saric was lighting up the plus-minus leaderboards as a small-ball five for the Phoenix Suns. Now fully healthy, Saric's ability to play up a position, make smart passes, and shoot just enough to keep defenses honest will unlock the newest Warriors' death lineup. When the Warriors want to blitz the opposition into oblivion, they'll trust their core four and throw Saric in the mix to break the opposing defense's will.
4. The Charlotte Hornets will make the playoffs
The Charlotte Hornets are about as dysfunctional of a franchise as they come, but that doesn't mean they can't play. Two seasons ago, they went 43-39 and made the play-in, but injuries and serious legal problems saw them fall to 27-55 the next season.
All it took was one bad season for people to forget that LaMelo Ball and the Hornets were a bright young team on the rise. The emergence of Mark Williams as a legitimate defensive anchor and roll-man last season will fix the biggest hole for a team that won 43 games only two seasons ago.
If their first game is any indication, the Hornets are going to be far better than people expected. The Atlanta Hawks are no pushovers. They have an excellent head coach in Quin Snyder and are led on the court by Trae Young, one of the most devastating guards in the league. After a 116-110 victory, the Hornets have already beaten a team with legitimate playoff aspirations and have the ninth-best net rating in the league because of it.
The Hornets probably won't dodge the play-in, but they have everything they need to win a bunch of regular season games: a high-octane lead guard in LaMelo Ball, an underrated defensive-minded coach in Steve Clifford, and a cohort of solid veterans flanking their young nucleus.
3. Russell Westbrook makes James Harden superfluous
The Los Angeles Clippers have been linked to James Harden from the moment he demanded a trade, but he still remains a 76er. Maybe the Clippers know something we don't, and maybe it's that Russell Westbrook still has the goods.
It was one game against a bad Trail Blazers team, but Westbrook looked absolutely brilliant. His shot selection was pristine, his efficiency crumbled the West-brick narrative, and his passing was godly. He won't reach it every night, but 13 assists is exactly what the Clippers need from their point guard next to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.
While James Harden can provide 13 assists in his sleep, he'll also cost a pretty penny. If Westbrook is going to be a high-volume passer and picky shooter, then he's a fantastic fit for the Clippers. There's the saying, "Don't let perfect be the enemy of good," and Westbrook looks great. The Clippers don't need to change a thing.
2. The Wizards will have a top-15 offense
A top-15 offense doesn't sound impressive, and it really isn't, but the Washington Wizards are widely pegged as the team that will lose the most games in the league. The worst team in the league doesn't usually have a top-half offense because if they did, they'd win enough games to not be the worst team in the league.
The Wizards scored 120 points with a 108.5 offensive rating (20th) against the Pacers, but underneath the hood, there are some encouraging signs. They took 47.9 percent of their shots zero to three feet from the rim, the most in the league by 14.3 percent, but only converted 56.5 percent of them, third worst.
Over time, these numbers will normalize, and the Wizards should have a pretty efficient offense. Throw in solid 3-point shooting, turnover rate, and free-throw generation, and the Wizards' offense will be about as average as they come. It's not like the Wizards have no offensive talent either; Tyus Jones, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Corey Kispert, and Danilo Gallinari can all fill it up.
1. The Sixers are in trouble
Saying the Sixers are in trouble might sound like an overreaction, even for an overreaction piece, after they lost to the Milwaukee Bucks by only one point, but a lot of things had to go their way for it to be that close. While Sixers fans will point to the missed free throws and Joel Embiid's poor performance as reasons why nothing in the world went their way, they'd casually be leaving out incredible 3-point shooting, Milwaukee's own pitiful free throw shooting, and Giannis Antetokounmpo's poor showing.
It has become increasingly rare for teams to lose when they have the 3-point shooting advantage, and the Sixers hit 45.7 percent of their 35 3-pointers, compared to the Bucks converting 36.7 percent of their 30. If it wasn't for incredible 3-point shooting, this game could have been a blowout. The Sixers may end up being an exceptional 3-point shooting team, but they're not going to push 45 percent consistently.
The Sixers also got incredible performances from Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr. While Maxey scoring an efficient 31 points isn't all that surprising, Oubre going 9-of-11 from the field for 27 points is. Even Tobias Harris was sublime, going eight of nine from the field for 20. The trio of Maxey, Oubre, and Harris combined for 78 points on 27-of-42 shooting and 13-of-16 from the free-throw line.
The Sixers wasted a chance to beat the Bucks. They got the 3-point shooting they needed, the support from their crucial role players, and got what will likely be Giannis' worst game of the season. It was the perfect recipe to steal a game and prove they don't miss James Harden. In the future, Embiid will be better, but everything else won't. Frankly, this looks like a mediocre team.
